That depends on what happens with the rest of the walking wounded.
Jeff Goodman at Fox Sports has essentially dismissed the injury to Tyler Zeller as not being significant this season because minutes were going to be sparse anyway with Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson starting followed by Ed Davis and Zeller. I think that is a bit simplistic and does not account for pesky things like foul trouble or the fact that Zeller is seven feet tall and there ain’t many of those players around. You also look at the quality of depth and having four quality big men opens up a pletheora of options in terms of keeping players fresh. Roy’s whole plan for this season was based on having 10 quality guys and knowing that when Tar Heel starters were taking a break, guys who were nearly as good would be in the game, Zeller being one of them. Where depth is concerned, losing Zeller hurts but given how much experience the team returns and the makeup of the team being much the same as last season it is by no means a deal breaker.
Basically I see it this way. This team is an overwhelming #1 on the basis of six players returning one of them a consensus NPOY. From last season’s 36-3 squad only two players left, Quentin Thomas and Alex Stepheson. Those roles can adequately be filled by Larry Drew and Ed Davis. In the case of Stepheson, I think Davis is an upgrade in terms of being a greater factor on the offensive end. The tradeoff with Thomas and Drew is probably even and with Bobby Frasor back there is plenty of depth in the backcourt. Once Hansbrough and Marcus Ginyard return the team will be the same team that took the floor last season. The differences will be an improved Thompson, Frasor back playing defense and setting the tone, an improving Will Graves and the rest of the usual suspects: Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. The team was loaded based on the returnees alone, the freshmen in many ways were icing on the cake augmenting the depth.
None of this is to say Zeller would not have played an important role at times this year. There is great talent there and he will be a blast to watch next season when he will be the starting center. As for this season Zeller was very much a nice to have, not a have to have. That is assuming Hansbrough comes back and plays in top form the rest of the season. Otherwise we may all be cursing that moment in the Kentucky game for years to come.
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Well written THF. I agree. I just hope we can hold the fort till Hans & Ginyard come back. If we do that, we will be VERY successful this year. I like Drew’s ability to run the floor, I would like to see him finish on the drive. That is something I have to give some credit to Quentin on. While he was sloppy at times, he could drive the ball into the painted area and score. I hope Drew can fill that void too. If he does, LOOK OUT!
Obviously, this is an understatement but I think this hurts us if we run into UConn or other teams with a 7+footer on their team. I think our size is not or greatest attributes, he would have been a big help.
Looking for a silver lining…Hansbrough has a better shot of knocking JJ off the all-time ACC career scoring leader podium now.
Don’t worry, UConn will do us all a solid and implode in the 1st or 2nd round…
Don’t forget, you are also adding a healthy Ty Lawson to the mix. When TH and MG come back, this is still a much better team than last years, and there aren’t any teams out there as good as any of the other Final 4 teams out there.
Still suck for Z though… get well, big guy!!
I do think it sucks more for him personally than the team itself assuming everyone comes back healthy. Losing Davis would have been bigger because of his defense, rebounding and shot blocking. Zeller didn’t seem to be real strong in those areas at this point in his career even though he’s a seven footer. Scoring won’t be a problem for this team.
THF- is he still going to miss the trip to Hawaii? That really sucks for him if he can’t go. Good luck kid.
From what I’ve read, the team left for Cali yesterday while he was in surgery, which is also why it took so long to get an official report, because they had to wait for Roy to get off the plane. I doubt they are going to send him out on his own.
Actually they still might send him on his own to Maui. It is a great trip and experience for the players and bonds the team. Also his brother Luke will be there with Notre Dame and had been planning for months to see each other in Maui. I am betting they find a way to get him out there.
Great article THF…Can we please just lose this injury bug now?
I love these THF polls you do. I wish they could be more often.
Regardless of injuries, I see us finishing no worse than 3rd in the ACC. The players are no longer dealing with that Roy debacle from last March. They know he is on their side now. With the coach having confidence in the kids, they know they can go out & play hard every night and have a chance to win. It is still a great time to be a Tarheel fan!!! So let’s not get too pessimistic.
It is generally recommended that you do not fly for a week or two after surgery, depending on the severity, and especially if it is tran-continental (or oceanic).
Well, Roy knows more than I do and he was playing Zeller a lot, but I didn’t think Zeller looked particularly good against Kentucky. He seems to play a “small” 7 feet, if you will, as he lost the tip to start the game. I think he is going to be a great player and I love the way he runs the court and has a nice soft touch, but I am not sure that he is the solution to UConn’s 7 feet three inch guy.
If there is any silver lining, maybe it comes from the fact that the Heels may have too many guys already this season battling for floor time and this could work out as an involuntary redshirt, that few players of Zeller’s quality would be willing to take otherwise.
Come on JBowling. We love you here at THF, but could you please stop with the no lower than 3rd place business?
When I was at Chapel Hill, my frat brothers would have responded to a statement like that with the rejoinder, “No Sh*t, Sherlock!”
Unless he was talking about a scenario where Hansbrough and Ginyard never returned, in which case, not finishing lower than 3rd is a reasonable assumption.
I agree about Z not being an answer to Thabeet… Ed, despite being “only” 6′10 seems much more likely to be effective there.
If Hansbrough doesn’t come back, then the Heels could conceivably finish lower than third–although talent-wise, they probably still should have the best team in the league even without the two Tylers and Ginyard–due to youth and experience. I don’t think Tyler’s missing the season is something in the realm of contemplation.
However, if Ginyard’s injury is going to stretch very far into January, I think that he should consider a redshirt. If you look at last year’s Final Four squad, we would then be playing with two fewer key players from that team, Stepheson and Ginyard, but would also be adding a key player, Frasor. We also have added Drew and Brown, who both look like excellent players. Will Graves is still looking for minutes.
I think Ginyard brings a lot of heart and wisdom and defensive prowess that is difficult to replace, but in terms of raw skills and production, I don’t think his loss for the season would be that much different for the team than the loss of Bobby Frasor(who hopefully will win his petition for another season) was last year.
Here is my list of the most important Tar Heels from one to five given our team’s depth factors this season:
1. Hansbrough
2. Thompson
3. Lawson
4. Green
5. Ellington
“I don’t think Tyler’s missing the season is something in the realm of contemplation.”
Agreed, 100%.
My understanding is Ginyard is about four weeks behind which would put him back in January. The question is whether you can win a title without him. I don’t think you can because of the defensive angle which in terms of losing Bobby Frasor was a huge loss because I think the team would have been better defensively with Frasor available last season.
They mentioned Lawson’s defense as not being necessarily stellar during the telecast, Tuesday night and statistics last year seemed to back up the notion that Carolina was a better defensive team when Lawson was out.
I hope that Lawson realizes that defense is a huge factor in the NBA, unlike, say 30 years ago. With his quickness and athleticism, Lawson should have all the tools to be great on the defensive end. How many years did Dudley Bradley play in the NBA? And Dudley couldn’t shoot at all, except for dunks, but he was a great, great defensive talent.
Carolina looks to have a lot of depth at the point this year, which is why I see Deon as being someone who, even more than Ty, we cannot afford to lose to injury, especially with Zeller gone.
william,
What is amazing is that before the season started, I don’t think most people would have had Deon in the top 5, I know I wouldn’t have! But given the circumstances (and his play), you are right, he is definitely top 3 right now. I’m still inclined to have Ty #2 because of how important the PG position is in college (i.e. Kentucky, or NC St. last year), but it is certainly close.
Well, Lawson said during the whole predraft drama and I quote:
“On the ball pressure, that’s my real strong suit. I have to work on off-the-ball help, getting into the right positions, but I think defense is one of my strong suits.”
So he really has no excuse for being crappy on defense now since he is on record saying it was his strong suit.
I am holding out hope that the entire team is healthy by March 1, including Zeller. Then we will dominate the month of March and beginning of April en route to a NC.
Recall, 14 weeks (the average healing time for Zeller’s wrist injury) is around March 1.
That will definitely be an interesting call. Normally, I would think no way, but since it is not only is wrist, but his off-wrist, he should be able to stay in pretty good shape, so it might not be that out of the question for him to come back. I would tend to think redshirting is probably the safest play, though.
If Zeller is thinking that he is going to leave early anyway, then wb3, you might be right.
Unlike with Ginyard, who is likely to use another year if he can’t return, Zeller may have no interest in conserving this year’s eligiblity.
Selfishly, from UNC’s viewpoint, Zeller’s injury is likely to, at the least, mean he will be back next year.
Based on the two main NBA draft sites, neither Ed, nor Zeller were consider a prospect for the 2009 Draft, and only Ed was considered a draft pick after next season (only draftexpress predicted this). I’d be surprised if they both weren’t 3 year guys, but it is really too early to worry about that… we have one heck of a season in front of us to enjoy!!
continuing from last year’s discussion, my take is that (like the 05 Title-team), as Lawson goes, so go the Heels (providing the injury bug comes to a halt). He definitely didn’t have a stellar game against UK, but if he delivers over the season the way Felton did, we’re good to go. He is the key imo.
THF, if you consider this post spam and want to erase it, I understand but thought I’d try the place I turn to for Carolina news for help.
I work in advertising and I’m working on an NBA project. We’re trying to bring back the art of passing and I thought this was a great opportunity to show case one of Carolina’s traditions of “thanking the passer.” However, I’m having a hard time finding photos of players pointing back at the passer and fans in the stadium pointing at the passer. If anyone can help me find some images, it would be much apreciated.
I think redshirting Zeller is a waste. He will not be at UNC four years because seven footers are highly coveted at the next level and he stands to put on some more weight and muscle. I say if he is able to come back in February or by the very beginning of March then use him otherwise I would not add him back to the mix if it is right before the ACC or NCAA Tournaments. The impact on chemistry might be a bit negative. If they can get a few regular season games in with him then they should use him.
Zeller could travel anytime he feels well enough. The 1-2 week time frame is for lower extremity surgery.
More ammo to 52’s point:
Lawson has started 72 regular season games and UNC is 65-7 in those games. First, that is an astonishing record, regardless, but, in looking at the boxscore for each of those games I noticed this stat:
In the 65 wins, Ty has averaged 1.66 steals per game.
In the 7 losses, Ty averaged 0.83 steals per game, and that is skewed by the January 2007 loss to VT, where he had 3. In the other 6 losses he has had either 1 (3x) or 0 (3x) steals.
Interesting.
Roy has said and I know I have said it multiple times here. If the point guard, especially one as quick as Lawson, shows up to play defense then the opposing team’s offense will never get going in the half court. Case in point was the UNC-NCSU game in Chapel Hill last season where UNC throttled the Pack in the first half. Lawson was all over the NCSU point guards to the point they could never get the ball into the key area to get the offense started. If Lawson D’s an opposing PG up as soon as he crosses midcourt, forces him to the sideline where a trap could be employed or generally makes it difficult for him to get to the spot on the court where he can begin running the offense, it is the same as a broken play in football. The opposing team then has to waste shot clock time getting the offense going and the whole thing falls apart.
The PG position in a man-to-man defensive set is the first point of attack. If you win that battle the offense you are defending will struggle. Lawson’s issue is he is not interested in always playing defense. If he ever commits himself to his alleged “strong suit” we will see more nights where opposing teams turn the ball over 17 times in the first half.
Interesting stat. Lawson getting a steal = points for UNC. Lawson does have a lot to shoulder this year. Great play from him can seperate us far from the field. Bad play from him means we are just a great team, but beatable. It will also be interesting to see Hansbrough & Ed Davis playing side by side. They both go after the ball with unmatched intensity. I wonder if at times they get in each other’s way trying to grab the boards. It really doesn’t matter to me if they do, as long as one of them snatches it. It has been a while since I have seen muscle bound rebounders like this that have the intensity of a Mike Tyson knockout. Last time I believe I have seen anything like this is Charles Oakley & Patrick Ewing at New York.
A little deeper look reveals that 2 SPG may be the magic #, of sorts…
UNC is 41-1 when Ty gets 2 or more. They are 25-6 when he gets one or none.
Lawson was completely out of sync offensively against Kentucky and was obviously forcing shots.
I was watching more football on Saturday than basketball, but the last two games of Lawson’s that I have watched from beginning to end were against Kansas and against Kentucky and he looked very similar in both games. In the past, he has gotten a lot of his points going down the lane. When Kansas and Kentucky denied that, it was not a pretty sight.
True, but the 9 assists (against 2 TO) and 3 steals were a bigger factor, IMO. I expect his shooting % to rise significantly when TH gets back, as defenses will be less likely to converge on him as heavily.
i agree that lawson getting rejected time after time was not a pretty sight but as the engine, i agree with c michael that the PG stats were much more important vs. kentucky. those stats should continue to be more important for our team’s success going forward as well.
i definitely think zeller should rejoin the team if healthy enough just in time for tourney time. he should be a welcomed fresh body inside. plus, i believe he had been looking forward to playing next to hansbrough ever since he decided to be a tar heel. it would be a shame for him not to have a chance to do that in a real game setting.
and in terms of jbowling’s comparison between drew and Q: although i agree Q had a better dribble penetration during his senior year than drew right now, drew’s long range is already miles better than Q’s. i love Q but i think drew should prove to be very valuable to us this year, especially if he continues to play defense as passionately as he did against kentucky.
one player i’m curious as heck about is justin watts. i think he’s injured (not redshirted) but i would love to see him on the court soon against the weaker opponents to see what he can do. A speedy 6-4 guy who can play the PG position and penetrate… i hope to see him out there.
With regard to the Zeller chemistry issue if he is healthy by March 1, I don’t think this will present much of a problem. He would clearly be the 4th big man and simply providing depth and a few minutes off the bench. Of course, one might ask why he would even come back, but the answer is easy: to win a NC. I am sure he would be willing to play 1 minute per game if he could help.
I would too WB3.
I need to offer a mea culpa on my stats…
Lawson has only played 57 regular season games, in which UNC is 50-7.
In wins he is actually averaging 1.94 SPG.
In losses, the number is still 0.83 SPG.
When he gets less than 2 SPG, UNC is 25-6.
When he gets more than 2 SPG, UNC is 25-1.
What is curious, is the over the last 2+ years, UNC’s win % are as follows:
Lawson playing, <2 SPG: 80%
Lawson out: 88%
Lawson playing, 2+ SPG: 96%
So… the argument could be made that UNC is a better team with no Lawson, then a disinterested (defensively) Lawson, but when he is engaged on the defensive end, they are virtually unbeatable.
But here is another question. Is this consistent across the schedule? Or does Lawson get more steals against weaker opponents? I would venture to say so since UNC does not have any horrid upsets on the schedule during the past two seasons save maybe a few of their ACC losses in 2007.
Surry Wood also left last year. Just saying. Zeller is important. I’m hoping that Tyler(H) will be back soon. Praying for Zeller.
“I expect his shooting % to rise significantly when TH gets back, as defenses will be less likely to converge on him as heavily.”
I think you hit the nail on the head C. Michael. With Hansbrough in the middle defenses have to respect his scoring and offensive rebounding capabilities. Lawson is excellent at getting defenders in the air and then dishing to Hansbrough for easy points. Hans just knows where to be and that may be a little lacking from Zeller and Davis right now, so the Kentucky defense was able to contest his drives more freely. Let’s face it, having Hansbrough in the game makes everyone on the team better, which is one of the defining characteristics of a great player.
Oh yeah, just a thought. Can we set up a standardized way to type the Tylers’ names? I’m lazy and hate having to type Hansbrough all of the time. THF, maybe we can have a poll?
Maybe TH vs. TZ, or Hans vs. Zeller, or heck even Big H vs. Big Z. Again, I know it’s not that important but it’s my lax typing skills coming out.
You think this is bad? I make it a point to refer to a player by full name the first time then by last name the rest of the post. I think that is standard journalism as well. Next year is really going to be interesting because the Wear twins will be at UNC and I will either have to refer to them by first name or as T.Wear and D.Wear.
I would just refer to Zeller and Hansbrough by last name. You can shorten to Hans if you do not want to type the whole thing.
At least it is Travis Wear, not Tyler!
In the event Zeller heals in time for the end of the season or beginning of the postseason, there shouldn’t be any concern in not redshirting him. If, as most on the site are saying, he won’t be here four years, then a potential redshirt year won’t matter.
I don’t know about this Hansbrough/Lawson theory. Hansbrough played against Kansas and I certainly don’t remember things opening up for Lawson in that game. I really cannot bear to go back and watch my DVD of the Kansas game, but at least in my mind, Kansas was rotating over or doing something different to stop Lawson on the drive, which may have been the difference in the game before Carolina went into foul on purpose mode.
Ultimately, Carolina really does not need Lawson to be a big scorer.
What they need from him is timely scoring, accompanied by a good assist to turnover ratio, good free throw percentage and excellent defense. We know he can do it because he has. His season last year in the games he played, was on offense, very close to Felton’s last year in 2005 in terms of efficiency.
What is this Kansas game you speak of?
Seriously, I don’t count the Kansas game in any of my reckonings since we pretty much didn’t do anything right. I agree that we don’t really need Lawson to score a lot, however it would be nice if he knocked down some threes every once and a while.
william, if I recall you were the first to make the Felton/Lawson comparison. I would be like to see a comparison of Raymond’s soph & junior stats to Ty’s. Remember it was quite the struggle for Roy to get Ray to play consistently smart & hard, but boy when he did they delivered.
It would really be interesting to see Raymond’s 3 point attempts & % in his Junior vs Soph year, and steals/assists for the same period, and again compared (as we go) to Ty’s.
Ty’s offensive statistics last year compared very favorably to Felton’s 2005 stats in terms of efficiency.
I haven’t looked in several months and I can’t remember which one had the advantage overall. You can look by comparing the various pages on Pomeroy, but I don’t have the time to look right now.
My recollection is that Felton was a far better three point shooter–strange, since he seems to have lost his touch in the pros– while Lawson had the advantage at the free throw line and perhaps in terms of assist to turn-over ratio. I was surprised by how close the two were overall in efficiency.
In terms of intangibles and defense, I think Felton gets the nod. I think everyone would agree that we saw real growth by Felton as that season went on and he, along with May, was the key player down the stretch against Illinois.
52 here’s a go at it:
Ray (soph): 3.7 3PtA/gm, 31.3 3Pt%, 7.1 APG, 2.1 SPG
Ray (junior): 4.1 3PtA/gm, 44.0 3Pt%, 6.9 APG, 2.0 SPG
Ty (soph): 2.6 3PtA/gm, 36.1 3Pt%, 5.2 APG, 1.6 SPG
Looks like CM beat me to it while I was working on it but here are the full major stats for both.
Raymond Felton
SOPH: 30 gms, 11.5 ppg, 7.1 apg, 2.1 spg, 4.0 rpg, 2.08 A/TO, 31% 3P, 42% FG
JR: 36 gms, 12.9 ppg, 6.9 apg, 2.0 spg, 4.3 rpg, 1.93 A/TO, 44% 3P, 45% FG
*Felton took 3.5 three pointers per game his SOPH year. His JUNIOR year he took 4.4 three pointers per game.
Ty Lawson
SOPH: 32 gms, 12.7 ppg, 5.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 2.7 rpg, 2.35 A/TO, 36% 3P, 51% FG
JR: 2 gms, 11.5 apg, 7.0 apg, 2.5 spg, 0.5 rpg, 3.50 A/TO, 28% 3P, 22% FG
Lawson does a better job of taking care of the basketball. Felton was a better rebounder. Lawson last season was a great shooter from the floor probably because his speed got him close to the hoop. His three point shooting was better than Felton during the sophomore seasons.
interesting–thanks Gents-nice work! My take is that Ty can be Ray’s equal from 3, and point pressure too. It’s just a damned interesting parallel for me–hopefully at the end of the season we’ll be able to hypothetically compare “who was the best” for their respective Champions?
message to roy: pull your starters when the game is out of reach…ie hansbrough’s broken face in a runaway win vs duke with the game safely won, TZ out for season now, who’s gonna get hurt next at the end of a game with a 15 point lead, get your head out of your a@@…why is it necessary to have all 5 starters in (especially when there are already 2 starters on the bench hurt) with a double digit lead with less than 2 minutes to play…wake up and see the big picture (this is not the way to win a national championship!)
Except that it is early season and Roy was probably trying to give his players the minutes, especially the freshman. I imagine even if he had pulled the starters at 1-3, Zeller and Davis would have still be on the floor for two reasons:
1. They need the minutes and experience since they in their first year.
2. Those two players happen to be the only post players we had left since Deon Thompson had fouled out. Unless you think it was a good idea to go the rest of the way with Will Graves at center and Justin Moody at PF it makes sense to leave them in.
And besides any of that the last I check Roy Williams was a HOF coach with a national title and a pretty clear understanding way above any of us of how to manage his basketball team. It was a stupid, dumb foul that ended up being a bad break. The same exact thing happened to Duke’s Kyle Singler last night midway through the 2nd half and his fall was actually worse than Zeller’s. This kind of crap happens and people only piss and moan when it happens inside of two minutes left in the game when it could really have happened at any point(see both Lawson and Frasor’s injuries last season)
THF,
Ditto.
Greenemachine88,
It sounds like you might want to take your own advice about pulling heads out of rectums.
Also, it is easy to sit back, and in hindsight say, “Tyler was injured with a 17-point lead and 1:26 left,” but that totally misses the reality of the situation.
Reality…
Paterson hits his second FT to cut the UNC lead to 13 with 2:44 to go. Under no circumstances is this considered a “safe” lead, and you must keep your best players in. UNC then scored 2 baskets in a row over the next 58 seconds to grow the lead to 17, when Ty Lawson forced a steal that led to the Tyler’s breakaway. The important thing here was that there was no stoppage in play between between UNC’s last basket (1:46), and Zeller’s injury (1:26), so there was no chance for Roy to even think about emptying his bench. Roy did absolutely nothing wrong. The only thing I could remotely criticize is Lawson’s decision to give the ball up when and where he did, but that’s not really fair, either…
As for Lawson’s quote on his defense, It may have been good enough for NBA defense, which it seems they do not play anymore.
Looking at what THF has put up about Lawson and Felton, I think Lawson as a Soph was quite close to Felton’s Junior stats, which was what I had thought, with Felton having a slight edge overall.
One thing to remember though is that Roy Williams had Felton work during the entire off-season on his three-point shot before his Junior year, and the results were amazing. He went from being a poor three-point shooter his Sophomore year to being, arguably, the top three-point shooter in the ACC during his Junior year, which made a huge difference for Carolina that season. Carolina was a great three-point shooting team in 2005, which is something that was lacking the last two years.
I think that all of us can remember Felton’s big three pointer, steal, and free throws to keep Carolina’s title hopes on track when several of his teammates seemed to be losing their edge a little bit. Lawson has the chance to be every bit as good or better this year, with similar results–i.e., a national title–if he can play to his potential on both sides of the court and be the kind of leader Felton was.
Will he?
Here’s a question, Why are we not pounding the ball down low to Davis or Thompson as we were with Hansbrough. It seems were an outside to inside team now.
If I had to guess, it is more of an example of how great Hansbrough is at getting in position to get the ball, than anything else.
One other thing to add regarding Zeller being in toward the end of the game.
Roy was on The Jim Rome radio show yesterday and commented on it. He thought because Zeller was having a frustrating game against Kentucky he would leave him in a little longer hoping to get a few confidence building plays, couple boards, easy basket, etc…he also said what THF pointed out above, who should he have put in, walk-ons with 2:30 to go, no of whom is above 6′6″…
Obviously everyone associated with the team feels terrible, especially Roy, I don’t think there is anyway he can be blamed for this…as said by many above, unnecessary foul at an inopportune time.
All this stuff is so stupid about Zeller. He is arguably Carolina’s eighth or ninth best player without the injuries to Ginyard and Hansbrough. There wasn’t a thing wrong about Williams having him in there.
I get tired of this garbage, like the statements by Greenemachine88, who, apparently, didn’t even watch the Duke game that he references in which Hansbrough got hurt. Guys get hurt in practice; guys get hurt in the first half; guys get hurt at home. With the three pointer, games are rarely over before the three minute mark. Just ask Arizona about that in its game against Illinois back in 2005 where they made up 15 points in under three minutes.
These idiots all still think it is 1972, with no shot clock and no three-pointer….