Did an extra foot changed the world?
The question heading into this season was whether the extended three point line would have an significant impact on the game. The answer after roughly a month of play is that percentages are only slightly down among the top fifty three point shooting teams versus last season with roughly the same number of attempts per game.
Through December 7th of last season the top fifty three point shooting teams averaged 42.3% from three point range. 48 of the top 50 averaged 40% or better.
The top fifty this season through December 9th are averaging 41.4% from beyond the arc. Only 38 of the top 50 broke the 40% barrier.
Last season teams were taking 19.0 attempts per game, this season it is up slight to 19.4 attempts per game.
What does it mean? Not much really and for the most part it is not all that surprising the percentages are down a bit. Since the number of attempts per game has held steady we can assume the newer line has not discouraged the same level of shooting as we saw a year ago.
On a side note, UNC is ranked 24th in the nation in three point shooting percentage. This is actually a little surprising since UNC was seen as a team not really dependent on the three point shot. As it turns out they are shooting it quite well and with the already established inside scoring presence it means the Heels have a very powerful and balanced offense.
The flip side of this situation is Duke who was ranked 17th in three point shooting percentage a year ago(42.4%) and at the time seen as a very good three point shooting team. This season Duke has not broken the top fifty in three point shooting. In fact Duke is ninth in the ACC shooting 30% from beyond the arc. You really have to ask yourself how successful a team with practically no significant inside presence will be when the perimeter shooting is that bad.
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I would like to get on a real college court myself, but looking on TV, the distance from last year seems appears fairly insignificant.
Do away with it altogether. J/K
But I thought basketball was a prettier game without it to be honest. You saw a lot more interior passing, mid-range screens, and weaving than you do today. Princeton like. But if we are going to have it, I prefer it be where it was in years past. I guess if Tyler Hansbrough is shooting 50 percent beyond the arc, it hasn’t changed anything.
Psycho-T is NOT shooting 50.0% from three point range.
But he IS shooting 93.2% from the free throw line.
I think the biggest effect it has on the game is stretching the defenses another foot. This will lessen the impact of zone defenses and, generally, make it easier for dominant bigs to do their thing.
It also increases the length of the post-entry pass, making it easier for quick players to get steals. Silent Sam, my statistics on Hansbrough was a reference to the only two 3’s I have seen him take all year (in one game) where he went 1-2 from distance. By no means was I asserting that his carreer average was 50 percent. Plus, that 93.2 percent is where we need him to be his best at. I am sure he will go there quite often again this year.
According to Pomeroy, the change has resulted in about a 1 percent difference in attempts and three pointers made, about what one might expect from such a subtle change. Still, anything that makes the shot harder is to the good, given that it is still closer than the international range:
Through games of Thursday, December 11
3-Point Tracker (D-I vs. D-I only)
2009 to date… 3PM/3PA:33.8% 3PA/FGA:33.2%
2008 season…. 3PM/3PA:35.1% 3PA/FGA:34.4%
Carolina is definitely benefiting both ways. First, because UNC doesn’t have to rely on the shot, and second, because with Lawson and Green finding the range this year, Carolina can really extend the defenses it faces.
Hate to sound selfish, but anything that can help enable UNC an edge I’ll take. Of course, they are good enough own their own.
BTW, William, if you have stats close at hand, what are Bobby Frasor’s 3 point percentages? It seems as if he has declined since his Freshman year. I could be very wrong, it just seems that way. I hope he is able to return to good form, because his defense is near superb, and we will need some minutes from him during the stretch.
Frasor: 31%, 37%, 30%, 26%
He is 4 for his last 10, so hopefully he can stay in the 37-40% range the rest of the way.
Bobby, is the type of player that seems to be more proficient offensively than his stats would indicate. Perhaps it is his demeanor and hustle. Unfortunately, on the offensive end, he has never been particularly distinguished as an outside shooter, or really as a shooter at all.
His best performance from beyond the arc was in 2007 when he shot .368, but he only attempted 38 shots from beyond the arc that season. In 2006, he shot .310, in making only 27-87 shots from behind the arc. In 2008, he made 9-30 shots from behind the arc, for .300. This year, he has made 5-19 for .263 from behind the arc.
Overall, Frasor shot an anemic .374 from the field in 2006, then .403 in 2007, .342 in 2008, and he is shooting .241 so far this year. He is not a particularly good free throw shooter, finishing above .70 only one season in free throw percentage.
Some of you guys watch the defensive end better than I do, and one can surmise that based upon Frasor’s offensive statistics, he must be absolutely fantastic on defense to garner the minutes he does.
It is a mystery to me.
Interesting that you mention Bobby and his struggles from the 3-point line. I am trying to remember his freshman year and can’t quite seem to picture his shooting form then. I am certainly no shooting guru and would never maintain that I know anything more about a player than the coaches who see them everyday. However, I will make an observation from watching Bobby shoot. I was always taught that the ball is an extension of the hand and arm and continues on down the torso through the hips and legs all the way to the floor. Everything should basically be moving in a single plane (almost in a straight line from the floor up) on the way to releasing the ball. With Bobby, it appears that his hips are back and his body is forward (look at his booty appearing to stick out at release). In short, his lower body is not in sync with his upper minimzing his leg contribution. In my opinion this balance variance tends to make his shot flatter and longer causing more back iron misses. Attempting to adjust his trajectory to what he is seeing would only cause his release to be less consistent and worsen his rhythm and results. As you can tell I like to analyze things. I would not offer this opinion (and that’s all it is) on any forum other than here on THF. I would love to see Bobby find his shot and regain his confidence. He’s a great young man whose importance to this team is highly valuable!
The even sadder thing is that he really is no better from two point range than three point range.
The three pointers he takes tend to be fairly easy three pointers where he is set up for the shot by someone else and he still cannot hit them.
His overall free throw percentage for his career at UNC is .69, which is okay, but certainly not great for a guard and it is trending downward as his career has gone on.
It is kind of hard to believe that he was basically the starting point guard on a top ten team three years ago and now has to struggle for any minutes at all. Both he and Greg Paulus probably figured things would be a lot different at this point in their careers. I have a feeling that Frasor will end up okay, though, maybe as a coach.
Thanks guys. Maybe my recollection of his better shooting performances were in his sophomore season. I just know they don’t seem to drop as much as they used to. I think he is a pretty good defender, and brings some intensity with it. That may be where his minutes come from during the season. Same can be said with Ginyard. Although, I really think Ginyard is good on offense, but just defers to other players. That’s OK because we have a lot of offensive weapons. It is just the fact that I hate to see defenders lay off of him, and I have to watch him not stick-it to them for that. There have been a few occasions that I have watched him drive the ball in the paint and score in traffic. Shades of Brian Reese. He just rarely does it.
Ginyard has really improved as an offensive player. I really expect him to take minutes, as will Drew, which will leave fewer guard minutes available.
Roy has often commented on how smart Frasor is and how extensively he understands the game. His contributions are on the defensive end and not even so much with who he guards but apparently he does a lot of talking out there which helps coordinate the defense.
I think most of us had hoped Frasor would do what Wes Miller did in 2006 and be a reliable three point shooter.
Wonder if we’ll see our ALL-Defensive lineup in some games?
Ginyard
Frasor
Davis
Tyler
Drew
Frasor does seem like the savvy type who might go into coaching. Wes Miller did seem to lose his shot a little during his Senior year, but overall, Miller, the walk-on had an excellent career at UNC.
Yes he did. And he will be remembered at least in the short term. I thought his defense was pretty respectable too.