At Inside Carolina, frequent poster feedmyego compiles the defensive charting for each and every game. I have taken the liberty of reposting his work here for the THF community to chew on. Click here for the original post at IC.
Defensive Efficiency
1st Half Defensive Efficiency: 139.4 (46 points allowed on 33 BC possessions)
2nd Half Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (39 points allowed on 39 BC possessions)
Total Defensive Efficiency: 118.1
** After getting down 78-63, UNC only allowed 7 points in BC’s final 13 possessions. But it was too late to start defending at that point.
Misc Defensive Stats
2-Pt FG%: 50.0% (23-46)
3-Pt FG%: 37.5% (9-24)
eFG%: 52.1%
FTA Allowed Rate: 22.9
TOF%: 15.3%
DR%: 57.9%
BC Shot Distribution by Level of Contestedness:
Open: 6-8 (1-2 3Pt.); 81.3 eFG%
Lightly contested: 19-34 (6-14); 64.7 eFG%
Contested: 6-20 (2-7); 35.0 eFG%
Heavily contested: 1-8 (0-1); 12.5 eFG%
** Actually not as many contested/heavily contested makes as I thought. Sanders hit a couple of tough ones early to give him (and BC) confidence, but this is a pretty normal contestedness breakdown (both in terms of FG%’s and distribution of attempts).
Stop%:
Davis: 100.0%
Thompson: 67.1%
Hansbrough: 64.5%
Ginyard: 57.6%
Lawson: 52.8%
Green: 50.8%
Avg.: 48.7%
Ellington: 45.9%
Graves: 42.3%
Frasor: 37.7%
Team Poss.: 26.4%
Drew: 19.6%
Points Allowed (FG-A, 3Pt-A, FT-A):
Team: 22 (9-11, 4-5, 0-0)
Ellington: 13 (5-11, 1-3, 2-4)
Lawson: 9.5 (3-8, 0.5-4.5, 3-4)
Graves: 8.5 (2.5-4.5, 1.5-2.5, 2-2)
Green: 8 (2-5, 1-2, 3-4)
Frasor: 6 (3-5, 0-1, 0-0)
Hansbrough: 5.5 (1.5-5, 0.5-2.5, 2-2)
Drew: 5.5 (2.5-3, 0.5-0.5, 0-0)
Ginyard: 4 (2-4, 0-0, 0-0)
Thompson: 3 (1.5-7, 0-1, 0-0)
Davis: 0 (0-6.5, 0-2, 0-0)
** UNC gave up a bunch of team baskets– mostly after failed traps or live-ball turnovers.
Forced Turnovers (11):
Lawson: 2
Ellington: 2
Team: 2
Ginyard: 1.5
Green: 1
Frasor: 1
Hansbrough: 1
Graves: 0.5
Deflections (24):
Lawson: 8
Ellington: 5
Hansbrough: 3
Frasor: 3
Ginyard: 2
Graves: 2
Green: 1
Floorburns (4):
Hansbrough: 2
Lawson/Ellington; 1
Forced Resets/Denies (3):
Lawson/Ginyard/Graves: 1
Defensive Rebounds (OR Allowed):
Hansbrough: 5 (1)
Davis: 3 (3)
Green: 3 (3)
Graves: 3 (1)
Lawson: 2 (0)
Thompson: 2 (3)
Ellington: 1 (0)
Ginyard: 1 (0)
Drew: 1 (0)
Team: 1 (3)
Frasor: 0 (2)
** UNC allowed 16 points (including 4 made 3s) on 9 possessions of halfcourt trapping and 4 points on 4 possessions of fullcourt trapping. Like most talented and experienced guards, Rice had little trouble breaking and attacking UNC’s trap for scores/open shots.
** BC also scored 24 points in 17 transition possessions. While Lawson, in general, did a good job of locating Rice in transition, he did have a few breakdowns that led to hoops or fouls. BC also used a halfcourt high screen for Rice a couple of times as a secondary break option. UNC communicated these quite poorly (not Lawson’s fault) which freed Rice for a couple other transition penetration opportunities.
I thought BC had a solid gameplan against Carolina– they attacked in transition at every opportunity (where UNC is vulnerable), pounded the offensive glass, and ran their halfcourt (flex) offense with a ton of patience when they weren’t able to get a good transition look. UNC wasn’t able to bait BC into an up-and-down game, but BC was still able to get plenty of points in its early offense (by running selectively and having a great finisher and decision-maker at PG).
** In my opinion, Lawson played a pretty strong defensive game against Rice. He did have a couple of transition breakdowns in which he was way too late in locating and stopping Rice’s dribble. But, in the halfcourt, Lawson was pretty disruptive (8 deflections) and contained penetration well. He also forced Rice into a bunch of contested shots.
It is true that Lawson (and UNC in general) was not disruptive enough to force BC out of its flex offense. This is more a testment to BC’s execution than UNC’s lack of effort/ball pressure, though. I thought UNC overplayed the flex entries (at the elbows) very well. But BC used its size and technique (posting up to receive elbow entries, tight, well-placed passes, etc.) to make clean entries all night (despite decent pressure from Carolina).
In general, BC’s flex cuts weren’t what killed UNC on Sunday (unlike games against BC in 2006 and Maryland in 2007). They did get a few easy lay-ups out of the flex, but most of the damage was in transition, on the offensive glass, and off of high screens.
BC was able to score 7 times using high screens (in limited opportunities since their offense isn’t really built around the high screen— it’s a nice wrinkle added by Skinner to take advantage of Rice’s talent). Graves, who was playing extensive minutes at the 4 for the first time in his career (usually Green plays the 4 when Green/Graves are on the court together like they were against BC), had a couple of breakdowns against the high screen that cost UNC 5 points.
As usual, BC should get credit for setting solid screens (both high screens and flex screens) in the halfcourt offense. Skinner likes phyiscal players, and BC is always among the best screening teams in the conference (more of a Big East style). Lawson and Ellington both got caught up on a few screens, and need to take better angles (and sometimes just be stronger at fighting through).
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Amazing that Marcus Ginyard is talking about “focusing on defense” for this group of players. However, it did take THREE years for Felton, etc…..to gel defensively.
This is off point, but anyone who has access to a television or tivo, the MASN network is showing UVa and UNC in their battle for number one back in January 1982. They are just about to start the game as I see the introductions right now. This was a classic game and probably our second toughest game all year(not counting the Wake game where Perkins was out).
This is one of the games they sell on the Tar Heels’ site, along with the Kentucky battle of number one and two earlier that season, which MASN is also showing this week. (Mid Atlantic Sports Network).
After reading this, it seems somewhat generous to Carolina’s performance. I am wondering exactly how they calculate stop percentage, given switches and the like.
One thing that does not show up statistically but is the epitome of controlling a game defensively is knowing who to foul and knowing how to foul and knowing how many to give. Who did BC put on the free throw line besides the unavoidable Hansbrough? Deon Thompson.
Who did Carolina put on the free throw line for BC? 12 out of BC’s 16 attempts went to guys (Rice and Trapini) who shoot about 80% between them. Ten went to Rice, who sank nine.
Sanders and Jackson and Raji are all very poor foul shooters, comparable to Deon Thompson but UNC put this trio on the line twice all night. Why not put a body on these guys and use our depth instead of letting Sanders and Jackson drop 17-29 shots from the floor on us? Carolina was clearly not fouling enough, especially in the first half, where it didn’t even benefit from its surplus by giving away a free three at the end.
Even when we had chances to foul these guys down the stretch, we didn’t do it. When you are talking about Carolina trying to get the margin down from four points to under one possession, those throws that Rice hit really made a difference.
I was at the 1983 game when we came back to beat Ralph and the boys, I think down as much as 16 in the second half.
I was in the student section about 10 rows behind Dean. After Michael’s steal and tomahawk in the final minute I was about 5 rows from Dean…….. incredible game.
william - agreed on the fouling situations, but I thought BC did a good job of keeping the ball in Rice’s hands down the stretch. When someone else had it, they tended to turn it over (unforced, like the late travel and cough-the-ball up over the baseline).
I think this analysis shows where we lack–too many open shots and inability to defend screens. They were 25-of-42 (59.5%) on open/lightly contested shots, 7-of-28 (25.0%) on contested/heavily contested shots. We just need to work on getting a proverbial ‘hand in the face’ of the shooters. I think in this game we could have ‘contested’ 5-7 more shots with a little hustle, and that would have made up the difference. I know we shot poorly, but you have to expect that to happen at some point and have the defensive focus and hustle to make up for your offensive struggles.
high screens: where did that give us trouble before?
Didn’t Duke use high screens as part of their offense last season and Roy countered in the 2nd game by switching on the screens?
I know some people would say that many of us are obsessing a bit much over this, but let me say that from what I see, most people here have pretty much the right attitude.
People are not mad or disappointed simply because the Tar Heels lost. I mean, sometimes you just lose either to a better team or to a team that played a better game, independent of what your squad did. Looking at the 1982 UNC-Georgetown game, obviously, Carolina didn’t want to lose another big game, but both of those teams played sensationally. It would have been hard to criticize Carolina for losing to Georgetown except for Matt missing the one and one at the end. Georgetown played pretty damn well in 1985 against Villanova too. Sometimes, you just lose.
I think what is bothering people is that obviously against BC, everything seemed to break down at once, but many of those things were preventable and not just due to random factors like a slew of difficult three pointers.
When Carolina lost to George Mason in 2006, pretty much all I could think was what a sensational job all the guys had done, Roy, Tyler, Wes, David, Bobby and right down the line. For that team to win 12 games in the ACC was an incredible achievement. Perhaps, along with Dean in 1971 and Dean in the post-season in 1977, the greatest coaching by a UNC coach ever.
I just want to see this team play the beautiful basketball they are capable of, and if that isn’t quite enough to win it all, then so be it.
Maybe they should watch a tape of the second half of the Michigan State Semi-final game from 2005 to see what a team can look like when they are all working together and functioning on all cylinders.
Maybe the BC game was the 2009 Tar Heels’ Santa Clara, which even accounting for Felton not playing seems utterly inexplicable to this day. Every other team that the 2005 team lost to was either on the road to a top five team, or during McCants’ first game back against the defending national runners-up, so it is not easy to find a whole lot of examples of the 2005 squad underperforming, especially if you throw out the five games that Felton and McCants missed.
maybe so THF, but specifically I was referring to Chalmers and KU, but they used it mainly not to free Chalmers, but to isolate Hansbrough down low, one on one. I agree with you that Ty did a respectable job on Rice, but that is why help defense is so important. That 3/2 zone I mentioned (if run correctly) can really shut down guard penetration too. The weak point is from the corners, but that is dependent on a team hitting from that angle.
The sad thing is that you are saying Lawson did a good job and Rice outdid him in every single stat line. If I am Tyrese Rice, I am asking myself why I don’t get any love from the media? I am not sure that Lawson beats out Jeff Teague or Tyrese Rice for All ACC.
I guess we will see, but it seems strange to me for someone to be talking about leaving UNC early when he might only be the third best point guard in his conference, but I guess Jack, Felton and Paul all went early. I doubt that the trio of Teague, Rice and Lawson is as good as those three however.
good/respectable–see the difference? Rice is arguably the better pg, but he got help defense from his team-mates on many occasions, whereas Ty didn’t. And that made the difference in the game imo. It really doesn’t matter who is “the best” as both are plenty good, but it’s still a team game. Our “team” got whupped.
I am just hoping for some realism from our young guys.
JackieManuel wrote an interesting piece about the professional angle and he makes the point that unlike in 2005 where both Felton and McCants were projected to be first rounders (McCants may have actually hurt himself by coming back but I don’t know), basically, Green, Felton and Ellington are back because no one wanted to draft them in the first round. Actually, he says lottery projected, but by the end, it seemed that none of them would have gone in the first round.
So, I guess that is a valid point. Florida’s guys all came back in 2007 even though I think that three of them were projected in the first round and two as lottery picks. Duke in 1999 and 2001 probably had more first rounders as did UNC in 1998 and Kentucky in 1996. UNC in 2004 had four pretty high first rounders and I doubt the current juniors or seniors will match that.
Hopefully, Wayne and Ty will be back for their senior years like Danny and Tyler.
If that were the case, it would still give us a nice run for the finals once again. Just a couple of pieces like that can keep such a run alive. I think we all know what we will get from Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller and even John Henson next year. It is still really hard to evaluate the potential productivity of Drew, the Wears, Strickland, and McDonald. But throw Ellington and Lawson in the mold, you’d have to say next year might not be much of a slackoff, and even the year following that could be decent depending on what the 09-010 recruits look like. Last I checked, it was two guards in the form of Reggie Bullock and Kendall Marshall, which are decent looking up to this point. We will really need the Wears to come up big in the mid-range game for us.
The 1982 Heels are trailing UVa 49-40 in Carmichael with under nine minutes to play. I had to pause the Tivo to do something, but back then, that was a lot of points to make up in less than nine minutes, James. It is not looking too good for the number one and undefeated Tar Heels against Ralph Sampson and the number two Cavaliers.
I will let you guys know how this one comes out.
Lawson is not staying. If it were not for the drinking charge he would not be there now because that violation cost him a 1st round pick. Lawson will have more games like the first 13 than the one he just had and at season’s end he will be seen as a 1st round pick, possibly lottery.
Ellington on the other hand should consider staying unless he gets on an incredible streak of games or morphs into 1993 Donald Williams during the NCAA Tournament raising his stock. Since these guys cannot avail themselves of the draft process without going all in, we at least do not have to twiddle our thumbs until the end of June.
Wow. The Heels did it, beating UVa 65-60, and Jimmy Braddock was the hero with six points off the bench!
Jimmy Black fouled out with eight minutes to go and under Braddock, the Heels didn’t rush but just played their offense and pressure defense to get the win after trailing in the last two minutes by one point. We probably did get a few homer calls but that is to be expected. UVa would go on to beat the mess out of us in Charlottesville.
I know players differ in their temperaments and all, but if McCants is having to struggle for minutes in the NBA, then I am not sure how well Ellington would do there since he is not as good an athlete, shooter or defender as McCants at this point. By the way, the Washington Post had an article on Brandan Haywood today and how much the Wizards miss him and how incredible his improvement was last year.
Article on Carolina:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/college/basketball/view/2009_01_06_Boston_College_gives_Tar_Heels_a_cause_for_concern/
Rice is the real thing, and in my humble opinion will play in the NBA immediately and well. I saw him firsthand last year in a game against Duke and he’s unstoppable when he wants to be, but has a good team concept. I don’t know what the scouts think, but I would think he’s a top 5 pick. Wayne and Danny right now are in the twilight zone with respect to the NBA; I personally wouldn’t draft either. I think one problem with this team is that we assumed the returning 3 gave us a lock on a great team. They are a great team, but in watching TV and especially the Big East, there are quite a few more great teams out there. I do think we’re in a situation where this loss was beneficial as a wake up call to the entire program. Better to learn that you’re mortal earlier than later.
I agree with this guy. If I were voting, my vote would be based upon who I think is going to win the NCAA tourney, not who has the best record currently:
http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/359
Roy Williams chose Bobby Frasor as defensive player of the game for Sunday’s loss versus BC.
I saw that…not sure what standards they use for that. I know they have their own system of defensive charting which may resemble the information posted above. Kind of odd considering Frasor only played nine minutes. If he was that good defensively why did Roy sit him so much?
My vote for Number 1 would be for the team that has played the best basketball to date. Predicting who you think will win the tourney is a crap shooot, mainly due to injuries. I think losing a game in the manner that we did against BC disqualifies us for the Number 1 position.
I seem to recall there being a lot of talk about Wayne possibly going pro after his freshman year–how ridiculous does that look now? I think this group in particular, (including Brandon in this conversation) is a fine example of why the system was broken, and needed fixing. I won’t even go into Calipari or Floyd here.
Othell Wilson was one helluva player, and got overshadowed a bit by Ralph. I still marvel at the physical transformation of Sam from twig-thin college player, to a relative stud by the end of his NBA career. Sam has a special place in the hearts of many UNC fans!
Jordan had no meat on his bones back then either. He was probably the key player in the game and seemed not to be intimidated by Ralph Sampson.
It is amazing how often the guys who end up having the best pro careers are really off the map in terms of their college careers. Guys like Pippen and Rodman and Karl Malone and many, many others are like that.
i agree that the #1 rank is “best results to date.” it’s not a #1 rank on odds. for example, i don’t think the votes are designed to take into account how much the voters believe the players (especially the freshmen) will progress through to the end of the season. if they prove to be quick studies, the results (wins) should show that as the season progresses, and voters should vote based on tangible results.
so agree pitt is #1 for this week. i can see voters vote dook #2 although i believe UNC is clearly the better team. then from #4 down, i’m not sure.
also, i seem to recall that frasor has won quite a few of the defensive player of the game awards. i do see he has great fundamentals on defense but is at times too slow for the acc starting guards. does anyone know how many times frasor has won the award (total and acc)? or how i may be able to find out?
I agree that you don’t base it on projected improvement. You base it on, if they played the tournament, right now, who would win? It wouldn’t be Pitt. They barely beat FSU and Rutgers. With the exception of the win over Georgetown (something accomplished easily also by Tennessee, and now Notre Dame) Pitt has no victories that are impressive. Honestly, there still have not been enough tough games for anyone yet to arrive at anything conclusive. Neither Pitt, nor Wake nor Clemson has played more than one tough game, if any.
I must be misunderstanding the projected stop percentage and points allowed above, because that seems to indicate that Frasor did not play good defense. I wonder if anyone keeps a +- like they have in hockey.
You base the ranking on how the teams have played so far to date. Not who you think would win the tournament should it be played right now. Even if you did, I wouldn’t rank Carolina number one given the way they played against BC. It’s simply and purely performance to date, period, not some hypothetical projection about how they would do in some hypothetical tournament right now. Pitt has done what Carolina hasn’t done, and that is, won all their games. They haven’t played poorly enough as yet, as Carolina has, to lose a game. That’s why Pitt is number 1. Duke being number 2 is only because the Carolina loss is much more recent than the Duke loss.
Then teams should play the weakest preseason schedule possible to ensure a perfect record for as long as possible. That goes against the whole movement the last ten years to judge teams based upon who they play, not their records.
I have seen several articles taking both points of view but Pittsburgh and Wake should not be rewarded for avoiding competition for a month and a half, but honestly, who cares? It only matters to the schools’ public information departments but rankings have zero effect on who wins the national title, unlike, say 25 years ago.