This isn’t bad. Try this.
January 4th, 1997: #2 Wake Forest 81 #11 UNC 57
January 8th, 1997: #19 Maryland 85 #13 UNC 75
January 11th, 1997: Virginia 75 #13 UNC 62
That is how ACC played opened for the Tar Heels in 1997. Three double digit losses, two of them on the road the middle one at home to Maryland. Urban legend has it that after the loss to UVa, a players only meeting was held at which point the the decision was made to straighten things out. UNC went on to beat NC State and Georgia Tech at home and sandwiched a win in Chapel Hill over #2 Clemson between losses to Florida State and Duke. From there UNC took off. After crushing Middle Tennessee St., UNC ran the table in the 2nd half of the ACC season to finish tied for 2nd, then swept the ACC Tournament(with Duke losing to play in game winner NCSU in the first round. Ha-ha.) UNC managed a #1 seed and went to the Final Four before losing to Arizona for the 2nd time that season. It was an magical winning streak during which Dean passed Adolph Rupp to become the all-time winningest coach in the NCAA. It was Dean’s last team and perhaps his greatest coaching job considering the pressures of being 0-3 in the ACC.
1997 comes to mind because like that team, the 2009 versions faces a similar problem. UNC is 0-2 in the ACC and while 2009 came into play with a much greater hype surrounding them and the 0-2 is margified a thousand times more simply because UNC was touted by some as able to go undefeated. Outside of that I think you are looking at fairly similar situations. The question is where do they go from here.
1. Are there chemistry issues?
There must be and I am not saying they are tearing each other apart but Tim Brando recounted this morning on 850 the Buzz how Roy gave the team a thorough ripping during one of the late 2nd half timeouts, Deon Thompson said something and as they were walking on the court Thompson and Danny Green were having words which concluded with Green saying, “Let’s just play!” That is not a good sign though I would hesitate to make more of it because losing makes everyone cranky. I do think this team seems to lack cohesion a lot of times. If you take the 2005 team for example, those players were bonded by having gone through the Doh Wars. There was no question about the team chemistry per se and the only issue that ever came up was how well Roy got along with Rashad McCants. I honestly think this group of players are perhaps not on the same page with each other and losing brings out the worst elements if that is already happening.
The only solution is the players have to take it upon themselves to make things right and Roy needs to be sure everyone is focused on the same goals. Maybe they need a player only meeting like the 1997 team had to air grievance and get things right. The question is who has the leadership on that team to make it happen.
2. How fast can Marcus Ginyard get back?
I touched on this after the BC loss and it merits mentioning again but not just because of the defense he might would have played on Jeff Teague. Roy touched on this during the Monday ACC conference call when he talked about having a player who can do “little things.” Jackie Manuel is a prime example of this and Roy talked about how Manuel, even while he was throwing up in a towel on the bench in a game against UConn, would still go in for spells coming up with a steal, an offensive board or general harassment an opposing player. The problem is Ginyard bring so much that fills the gaps and there is no one else. Roy thinks Will Graves might be able to do some of what Ginyard did but with the latter you get senior experience. I also think we all did not pay enough attention to the fact Ginyard being out did alter the dynamics of the team since it put Danny Green in the starting lineup. Green was great versus Wake Forest. He has generally been a very good starter. Think for a moment how many times last season Green came off the bench in the 1st half and hit shots that changed the course of the game? Think about how shifting Ginyard out and putting Green in off the bench forced teams to defense UNC differently and Green’s offensive production sparked a nice run. Heck I am even wondering at this point if Green being on the floor to start the game is throwing Ellington off and he fails to get on track early. Of course none of this is the fault of anyone. Ginyard is injured and needs to get to 100%. Roy indicated that they have shut him down for now and at some point hope to bring him back. It cannot come soon enough because I think a healthy Marcus Ginyard would make a huge difference right now for this team. Especially since some of the problem with the team seemingly lacking cohesion may have to do with a vacuum of leadership on the floor.
3. Why do they wait so long?
One encouraging aspect about last night was the fact the Tar Heels did step up and make a run to get close. During the course of a few minutes span they showed the ability to hit shots and play good defense. The problem is it was a tad late. The same thing happened in the Boston College loss as well. In many ways they are like I was in college where I would wait until the night before to write papers. In this case it is like they are waiting until the morning the paper is due to start writing. I know Roy has preached bringing it from the start except it feels like no one is listening. By and large the same level of play is seen until the Heels wake up and smell the burnt toast. At that point you need so many things to go right that it becomes nearly impossible to come back without some help from the opposing team.
4. Is there any hope for the defense?
I cannot answer that question with any kind of confidence. If Ginyard returns I might say “yes” more quickly. Without Ginyard I have no idea. There is only so many times you can watch a team allow the same kinds of open looks before you accept that this is as good as it going to get. The help rotations come too slowly, drive and kicks result in open threes every time it seems like and the transition defense is a little porous. You also have the fact that most of these guys have been in this system for three years so it is almost like if they have not gotten already it will never happen. Based on Roy’s past comments, he honestly believes that at some point it will click. I think he feels like he has done a good job coaching them and he feel like there will be a game where it just happens.
I hope that is the case otherwise it will chaotic from this point on.
5. What will the rest of the season be like?
UNC will run the table from here on out.
It has occurred to me that this is a distinct possibility. How great would that be? Heels go 0-2 in the ACC, everyone is pulling their hair out in frustration, cats and dogs are living together and something odd happens. UNC never loses again this season. That would be a lot of fun. Realistically speaking it won’t happen though if it does I am taking credit for calling it.
The fate of this season rests on this team, players and coaches alike, gelling as a unit that maximizes the talent and experience that is there. I don’t know if it will happen. Getting Ginyard back healthy is such a gigantic key to all of this and without him things look a little dicier. I do know that the best thing is for this team to take it one game at a time. The Heels need to go into every game treating it like it is a must win, last one they may ever play and play from the very start like they do when trailing five under two minutes to go.
In other words, play hard, have fun, let the chips fall where they may or as Danny Green said last night:
“I know this team and I know the character that we have on this team. I don’t question that, or how tough we are. I know that we’re going to bounce back and we’re going to keep pushing forward.”
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FELTON: That’s what your uncle told you. He didn’t hold with your father’s ideals. Thought he should have stayed here and not gotten involved.
TYWON: You fought in the Doh Wars?
FELTON: Yes, I was once a Jedi Knight the same as your father.
LOL…that is outstanding.
We spent some time on the same subject. Our approach was numerical. For exmaple, 88 — that would be 88 points a game surrendered in the two opening losses to the Eagles and Deacs. And then there’s 59 — the number of points scored by opposing point guards in those games…Yikes!
Here’s the rest of it titled “Clean Up On Aisle Tar Heel”
http://www.todaysaccheadlines.com/2009/01/clean-up-on-aisle-tar-heel.html
Great analysis. The only thing I’d add is that I don’t think Marcus Ginyard is walking through that door (and neither is Sean May, Jawad Williams, Raymond Felton or Jackie Manual). Seriously, I don’t think we can bank our defensive improvements on his return. Even IF we can get back, will he back to a level of effectiveness that we need? Highly doubtful. It’s gotta come from the guys we have. They can do it, the question is how bad do they want it??
Maybe we should start Bobby and bring Wayne off the bench…
Good article. I’m at a loss for words. I believe we are no a good defensive bunch. I don’t see how missing Ginyard has hurt Ellington, Deon,Tyler and Lawson’s intensity for the defensive end. They defend poorly. Bobby did a great job on their point and without Danny we lose by 25.
Are second biggest problem is our shooting. What is going on with it. Tywon and Ellington and Bobby might as well quite shooting. Lets talk about FREE THROWS (PLAYOFFS, YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS) I know we can’t make them all but if we made half the ones we missed we win the B.C. game and the Wake game.
It’s going to be a long year. No where close to what we expected. I do not see a silver lining. We for some reason can not compete against teams that have athletes. We can beat CoC, Rutgers but not top flight Athletes. I don’t see it.
I hope I’m wrong.
What this team seems to lack is a leader in the George Lynch/Jawad Williams/David Noel sort of mold. Despite TH having the intensity of a thousand burning suns, his intensity is mostly internal.
Maybe this is the point at which Green says “I am a senior, dammit, and this is how things are going to be” and a leader is born.
Actually, UNC shot 31-38 from the line, which is outstanding. For them to have made enough to win, the would have had to shoot north of 92%, which is unrealistic, to say the least.
I said last night I’d stay away from posting (because I knew I couldn’t come up with anything positive). We’ll, I can’t. Stay away or come up with a positive post. I don’t care what happened in 1997, or any other year. This team has (had) it’s own identity and I expected too much, I guess. To me, after being a UNC fan for at least 40 years, it’s not just about the end of the year, but each game. I enjoy watching the great caliber of play we display on the floor (most nights), and the pride in the program each coach and player shows. The only days I missed in school were after a Carolina loss… But it wasn’t I didn’t respect the effort we put forth, I just didn’t want to debate those darned State fans (many are still dear friends). So last night I had the same feeling, to skip “school” and not deal with the letdown, but this time I really question this team’s motivation and heart. Until I see it, I’ll be a pulling for them, but I sure don’t believe in them.
They have to believe in each other first.
I hope for more than a championship from these guys, I’d like a whole season.
This team can bounce back. Roy will make them bounce back. Danny will make them bounce back. Tyler will make them bounce back. EVERY FREAKING PLAYER ON THE BLUE TEAM WILL MAKE THEM BOUNCE BACK. If none of these people can do it I WILL. Even if I have to break into the Smith Center during practice and yell my butt off until campus police drag me away. I have faith in this team. I dont care if anyone else does or not but I DO.
Listen my padawans and you will hear. One thing that happen will when you are a Carolina or Duke is that all of your recruits magnified by the media become. If someone is going to Duke, up from four star status to five star status he moves. Assume not that always superior you are. So says Yoda.
In common speak, we are plenty good but we aren’t as talented as we have been led to believe and it’s not just UNC.
Is Greg Paulus as good as Tyrese Rice, for example. Both are seniors but I don’t recall hearing much about Rice coming out. I don’t even see Rice listed in the Rivals ranking for that year, but I see Paulus ahead of Mario Chalmers. I don’t think so. Ginyard is listed as the eight top point guard.
This doesn’t mean our guys aren’t excellent, but I think some assume that Lawson isn’t trying or something when he goes against guys like Teague or Rice. Those guys are great players and while I think we fouled Teague more than necessary, you mostly have to give it up to his performance at home. I think sometimes we assume Ray Felton should be better than Chris Paul just because he plays for UNC. Both were great players and Felton was probably more highly recruited and Paul was probably slightly better (and younger) in college.
Gerald Henderson and Wayne Ellington have both been very good players for their schools but I think if you look back, fans of both schools were probably expecting Vince Carter-type players, which is a huge burden for anyone.
I am not sure, with the exception of Danny Green, that any of our seniors are great athletes. They have achieved so much that we expect a lot and perhaps more than we should.
There is little doubt that Brandan Wright was the most gifted guy we have had, as he broke all the records on the skills tests. Maybe Ed Davis can be this kind of player.
I hear over and over again that Carolina wins because it has the best recruits (talent). We obviously have a lot of talent but Kansas did have more talent than we did last year seemingly; Memphis seemed to as well.
Wake may have more this year. I didn’t want to believe it but it could be true. With both Reyshawn Terry and Brandan Wright, I don’t see any conclusion but that the 2007 team was more talented than last year and now this year, without Zeller and Ginyard. So let’s not always just assume that UNC is supposed to win because it has more talent. The enemy is dangerous. Let’s not underestimate them.
Agreed. We played very hard last night. Those questioning effort and chemistry must adjust their expectations. We have a very good team but not one that will always be the most talented on the court. Only Danny and Ed are good defensive players. Marcus might come back and offer help but he is no Jackie Manuel.
I came across a quote from a book last year, i forget the title, but the author/teacher put forth this analogy regards to facing hurdles in college and life to his college students, my paraphrasing: “Brick walls are there for a reason. To prove how much you really want it”.
UNC, meet brick wall. Brick wall, meet UNC. Let’s go to work…better to make the necessary corrections today, than 6 weeks down the road.
I think the other thing we forget is that Roy Williams has a task besides just recruiting the best players he can get. He is trying to recruit the best players he can keep. This adds a chess-like aspect to putting a team together that coaches before 1995 rarely had to worry about.
Let’s not forget 2006 where everyone fled the coop, and even though things turned out all right, at first expectations were exceedingly low.
Since the 2006 class of recruits, with May, Felton and McCants, every top-notch recruit that UNC has snared has left before the halfway mark–either immediately like J.R. Smith, or after one year, like Marvin Williams and Brandan Wright. The ones that were still five stars, like Hansbrough, Ellington and Lawson, but maybe just a rung lower, are still with us. All of the four-star guys, like Frasor, Green, Thompson and Ginyard are still with us.
Wake’s freshman recruits were more highly rated than ours. Will they all stay four years? Georgia Tech has gotten superstar after superstar and they all seem to leave after one year. Texas and OSU also. Duke had a similar situation early in this decade and now K either is failing to attract the top talent or is choosing to concentrate on the four star types.
“He is trying to recruit the best players he can keep.”
i’m not sure about this statement william. coach roy had wanted aminu and kevin love. as you point out, he also got us marvin williams and brandon wright when most people were saying that all these players were one and doners. there are others (e.g., the current ucla frosh PG, etc.) and henson is frequently talked about as such as well.
i feel coach roy would gladly take a recruiting class of 5 one and doners if they would come. whatever it takes to win the national championship… that is, as long as they are classy individuals as well.
I think striking a balance in that respect is important. Maintaining a vibrant program that players want to join, will on occasion require the coach to selectively opt out perhaps on landing a big fish. Watching guys leave after year # 1 is just not enjoyable…it should at least be a little about the school.
Recruiting is a year-round slog…so hopefully the investment of time lasts longer than 1-2 years of court time. You always want the best talent, but I think a program such as Ohio State loses something turning into a revolving door. Gotta have the glue guys to win a title…always.
You are right, HeeledSoul. I probably should have been more precise and said, that Roy is intensely aware of which guys are likely to stay for four years and which are not. I think he is perfectly willing to have one guy like Marvin or Brandan in a class just because they can put you over the top, which Marvin arguably did and Brandan may have been even better than Marvin in his sole season. I think everyone knew that B. Wright was one and done.
Where the judgments get interesting are, ask yourself, would you rather have Marvin Williams or Brandan Wright for one year, or Marcus Ginyard for four? That is not an easy question to answer.
With regard to Aminu, is he as highly rated as B. Wright? I think I saw him rated 8th, which is more like Hansbrough was. I know there are no precise standards but Aminu does not strike me as being close to the player that Wright was, at this point in their freshman year, but more akin to Ed Davis.
I don’t like players leaving early either. But I have much less of a problem with it if they leave us with a national championship. UNC will most likely always be able to fill any void that comes from a player leaving early, maybe not the next year though. We just really need to capitalize on one’s effort while they are here if they are NBA worthy. I had no problem with the 04-05 team leaving, and us having to deal with the 05-06 situation, because we did maintain a level of success that year with some decent incoming freshmen in Ginyard, Green, Frasor, Hansbrough, and the addition of Wes Miller. We can all live with that post National Championship. Of course, we would all ponder the potential, if not certainty of a back-to-back NC if some stayed.
I hope what I’ll write here will not be viewed as too positive and therefore too simple-minded in the midst of all the above analysis, but let me say the following: I really believe the ACC is the nationally dominant conference (despite what the ESPN-ers and CBS-ers say in regard to the Big East) and I base this opinion on what we’ve all witnessed in BC’s and WF’s wins over the Heels. If Rice and Teague play as well as they did against Lawson, against any other team in the country (ACC or otherwise) I believe their teams will win. As far as the Heels go, the argument regarding a lack of effort to me is weak, especially since it has only revealed itself in the past week, AFTER losses. I believe for the Heels to shoot the % they did last night, yet only lose by three pts reveals effort was not the problem. The tremendous “efforts” in both the BC and Wake games allowed the Heels to shoot as poorly as they did and only lose by the margins they did. Ok… back to what I meant with the positivity stuff – I really believe these two losses can serve and will serve as deep rooted, to the core motivation for the Heels. They don’t need us or any paid commentators to tell them that going 0-2 to open conference is a surprisingly terrible disappointment. This team knows anything less than a 2008-09 National Title will be disappointing, and not just in Tar Heel nation. But now, being 0-2, they don’t have to maintain any expectation (maybe a little, but not nearly as much)… they just need to now leave no doubt. They need to annihilate (sp?) the competition, every game, every play. Perhaps Psycho T needs to go before the cameras like Tebow and publicly state how hard he will work and drive his teammates to work so that what has happened will not happen again this season. Whether they need a “players only” meeting or not… I don’t know. The fact Ginyard is not back 100% hurts. The fact Tyler Z. is out for the season hurts. The fact Lawson is not the stand alone “superman PG” in the country hurts. But the FACT is this – UNC gets everyone’s best shot, every game… and we’ve seen it, but except for BC and WF, the Heels have dominated every other team’s best shot. I believe they are still the best team in the country. I will now shut up.
Let the Heels rise up and LEAVE NO DOUBT! It’s all that’s left to do.
That is right, JBowling because that is how hard it is to win a national title. So hard that Wilt Chamberlain and Ralph Sampson never won one. So hard that Dean only won two in 36 years and nocoaches alive except for Wooden, have won more than 3. When you have a chance to grab one you do.
That being said, though, you still can’t compare Florida’s program to Kansas’s even though they have the same number of championships(well not anymore, but up to last year). There is still probably just as much to be said for getting to the Final Four twice as for winning the title once, in terms of showing what the really elite programs are, as opposed to your occasional flukes like UMass or decent programs like Michigan and Stanford, but not quite elite.
a year of marvin williams or brandan wright vs. 4 years of marcus ginyard?
i love ginyard and i believe he adds a ton of positive intangibles to our team that just can’t be measured. having said that, purely in terms of basketball, i’m going to cheat and say that i’d prefer a year each of marvin williams, brandan wright, one more stud, and kevin love (i believe that was the order) over 4 years of ginyard.
=)
ps. i hope i’m not opening up a whole can of worms but i absolutely believe the addition of kevin love to last year’s team would have given us the national championship. i’m not sure how much of a negative effect the subtraction of ginyard would have been, but i believe he was substantially less than 100% by the time we played kansas, so he may not have been hugely missed for that game.
either way, THIS YEAR, everyone is dogging wayne. some are saying give will graves more PT. i’m not sure graves is the answer given his reyshawn terry-esque bursts of mistakes in concert with his awesome outbursts. i’d prefer to see more of the following line up:
1. lawson
2. drew (for that additional playmaker help)
3. green (for he is our savior)
4. hansbrough
5. davis (for some physical presence)
heeledsoul,
You may be right about Love, but it may be an easier argument that keeping Brandan Wright for his sophomore year would have been an even bigger impact, and UNC already had him.
B. Wright was even starting to make his free throws. He made 2nd team All ACC and I am not sure that he didn’t deserve to make the 1st team. His stats were essentially even with Hansbrough, with Hansbrough a much better free throw shooter and Wright much better from the floor in percentage terms. Wright also blocked far more shots.
He really had a beautiful form on the court. I wish someone could have shown him how to make even more dollars by waiting one more year, because it looks like now that he might have.
After going 0-3 start the ACC in 97′, UNC was down I think 8 with little over a minute to go against NCST at home staring 0-4 in the face, and somehow they pulled it out,winning the game and going on to have a great year. I expect a beatdown of UVA on thursday.
If memory serves freshman Ed Cota stepping up his game was one of the key factors to the Heels playing better after starting 0-3.
There is an interesting article on the official site about one of the main differences between Dean Smith and Roy Williams. Williams insists that his players fight through screens while apparently Smith was bigger on switches and slide-throughs?
Any of you guys who played or coached a lot, how about commenting on the relative benefits of these different approaches?
jmo, but I believe switches and slides give a good ballhandler more time, options and vision. Fighting thru makes them execute more precisely, but if done sloppily, (by the help-side and on-ball players), can be destroyed. I like Roy’s approach. One of the few gripes I had with Dean was (despite percentages), every now and then someone like Ga Tech (or NCSU) would absolutely shred us with 3’s. Conversely, Roy’s team seems susceptible to interior shredding.
I do know that they switched on screens against Duke in the 2nd game because the pick and pop killed the Heels in Chapel Hill. It seemed to work but it created some odd matchups like Hansbrough guarding Paulus or Nelson at times which he did a pretty good job at.
I play every Monday night with a group of guys who are fairly decent. We play straight man all the time and I do know that fighting through screens is physically more demanding and requires a lot of communication(which we do) and it also requires other players rotate on help defense. There are instances we simply end up switching on screens and that seems to be much cleaner but it also creates mismatches in some cases. I am speculating that it is the mismatches that make Roy a little leery of using it. That being said, UNC players seem to have major problems rotating in time to stop open looks, especially on the perimeter so maybe switching more would work better.
There has been talk ever since the Lawson class came in about the difficulty freshman would have learning the defensive scheme. Roy has said it is a tad complicated. I wonder if it needs to be simplified. I don’t know all the details and differences in the schemes they run and it may not be as simple just to say: Play straight man and switch on the screens. I do know the trap defense ain’t working and leads to far too many easy baskets.
I will say that 18-22 elite basketball players with greater quickness, length and height guarding players of the same caliber probably calls for more in-depth defensive schemes that what a bunch of 30 year old guys do playing in a church gym.
This was pointed out as one of the main scheme differences between Smith and Williams by Adam Lucas in his book on Roy. He noted that Smith did not think fighting through screens was worth the effort, but that Williams, perhaps consistent with his personality insisted that his players fight through them.
Smith was often criticized for not adapting but it seems to me that he adapted much more to the specific personality of the guys he had, versus Williams, who seems more like Bobby Knight, where everybody seems to do everything the same way from year to year.
Another thing that maybe I noticed when people on here were talking about the BC game is that there seems to be some confusion between trapping and pressing. It seemed to me that pressing was fairly successful in that game, while trapping was not, but maybe I am the one who is making an incorrect distinction between two things that seem to look alike to most people.