As soon as John Wall makes up his mind we can delve into what the next basketball season holds.
Duke’s Gerald Henderson made official what everyone assumed a month ago by declaring for the NBA Draft. Henderson will be a likely top then pick and probably more surprising than the announcement is the fact Mike Krzyzewski sounded somewhat supportive. Henderson leaving means Duke is without any real playmakers outside of Kyle Singler and possibly Elliott Williams. I do expect we will see more in the way of scoring drives from Jon Scheyer in the future. Duke is still looking at a PG issue if Nolan Smith does not improve. The interior game looks to improve with Mason Plumlee coming in along with Ryan Kelly. The question is which lineup is better?
Duke: Nolan Smith, Elliott Williams, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas. Bench: Brian Zoubek, Mason and Miles Plumlee, Ryan Kelly
UNC: Larry Drew, Marcus Ginyard, John Henson, Deon Thompson, Ed Davis. Bench: Tyler Zeller, Dexter Strickland, Leslie McDonald, David and Travis Wear
The real question is whether UNC’s interior game is better than Duke’s perimeter game? Better yet, which team can develop their perceived weakness faster: UNC on the perimeter or Duke in the middle?
Of course Clemson returns the most of anyone in the ACC only losing K.C. Rivers with a returning balanced offense. The only problem is Clemson is still Clemson. There is a trio of ACC teams losing one or two key players but retaining some decent talent. FSU loses Toney Douglas and Uche Echefu but brings in Michael Snaer(McD AA) and has some young talent that will receive very little in the way of meaningful coaching from Leonard Hamilton. Likewise Virginia Tech and Boston College lose key players but also retain most of their roster meaning they will still be positioned to make some noise. If Greivis Vasquez returns to Maryland there is a chance the Terps will build on their late season surge to be an upper half ACC team.
On the bottom half questions surround Wake Forest after losing Jeff Teague and James Johnson but retaining Ish Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu along with some talented younger players. Dino Gaudio enters the pressure portion of his career at Wake having lost any insulation he may have had following the plunge from one time #1 to loser of a 4-13 game in the NCAA Tournament. Miami loses a ton of seniors, including Jack McClinton. Dwayne Collins is testing the waters and I think will probably be back. Georgia Tech is in full rebuild mode and Virginia will be breaking in a new coach which means they will likely surprise someone. NC State finished off the Herb Sendek players which means Sidney Lowe owns whatever happens now. The Wolfpack have a decent class inbound and without so many malcontents hanging around perhaps there will be something but I would not trust to hope, it seems to have long forsaken Raleigh.
In the end I think we are still talking about the rival blues with Clemson trying to crash the party. Maryland, FSU, Virginia Tech and BC all look fairly dangerous on any given nigh but there in lies the problem. Only UNC and Duke have the stockpile of talent and coaching to be consistent it seems. Then there is the John Wall factor which could make UNC or Duke #1 in the ACC with a bullet or change nothing at all should he end up at Kentucky.
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It is so hard to get an accurate take on the John Wall situation. One of the recruiting sites (either Scout or Rivals) had an Insider thread pertaining to Wall making his announcement today. I don’t see how that makes sense in that Roy has not even put an offer out there yet.
Speaking of which, how soon does Roy pull the trigger on that one? I believe that an offer from Roy puts the Heels at the front of Wallstakes, AAU coach be damned. I just think that UNC’s profile, style of play, and track record for player development all meet Wall’s needs perfectly. He would get the keys to the car, and would have plenty of opportunities to create. He roomed with John Henson in NY for the big game there, and he played with Leslie McDonald in the Hoops Summit game in Portland. I don’t see why (unless the coaches know something we don’t) an offer wouldn’t be made either today or VERY soon after.
My question is: are four players enough to replace Hansbrough? And how will the point guard position evolve? Even if Wall comes to UNC, he has lots of his game to work on; if it is clear that he is weak shooting, his input will be less. What really make the team dangerous in the second half of the season was the balance of attack and the new option of Lawson as an outside shooter. The outside for him opened up the driving and inside game.
Don’t think anyone has a read on the John Wall situation, possibly including John himself.
My take on the situation is that John wanted to follow in the footsteps of Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans, and was simply waiting for Tyreke to declare before he went to Memphis. When Cal left Memphis, everything was up in the air.
Now, John is probably analyzing how he would fit in at Kentucky (Cal being his coach of choice) versus playing at Carolina or Duke. If Cal promises John that he is the starting PG for Kentucky and that Kentucky is a contender, he probably goes to Kentucky.
If Cal cannot ensure John that he will fit right into the Rose/Evans cookie cutter, he then considers Duke and UNC because they are close to home and his mother is in ill health. In that scenario, Carolina plays at the pace he likes, and should have an edge.
One guy should be enough to replace Hansbrough, provided that one guy is good enough. Bobby Jones graduated and in came Mitch Kupchak. Kupchak graduated and Tom Lagarde took over. These guys were all roughly at the same level of play.
When Lagarde left, Rich Yonakor, Steve Krafcisin and Joe Wolfe’s brother took over. In that case, three guys were not good enough to replace Lagarde but were still decent.
With respect to Jeff Teague, is it sure that he (and Gerald, for that matter,) are not returning?
AZACCFan — “My question is: are four players enough to replace Hansbrough?”
No.
The four top front court players (Thompson, Davis, Zeller and Henson) bring a boatload of talent, productivity, athleticism and energy. Hansbrough brought greatness. Carolina will have great players in the future, but the current crop, while excellent and possibly (with Wall) of NCAA championship calibre, have not yet shown greatness.
I would love to think that we could replace a once-in-a-generation player in one year, but it ain’t gonna happen.
This is not a reason to be anything less than enthusiastic about next year’s team. It’s a reason to reflect on how incredibly fortunate we were to have had what we did for the past four years.
“This is not a reason to be anything less than enthusiastic about next year’s team. It’s a reason to reflect on how incredibly fortunate we were to have had what we did for the past four years.”
Rath-
That’s exactly the point. It is REALLY sinking in for all of us just how lucky we’ve been. 101 wins in three years for a program that gets everyone’s best shot (and sometimes more, Maryland) annually, is extraordinary. Let’s not burden anyone by making Tyler comparisons, let’s just hope that they give it their best, which I’m sure they will.
My only concern for the next few years will be the continuity (of lack of) factor. I’m all for players going pro early, but we just witnessed a true senior class, plus a couple of upper-classmen who wisely chose to stay, pass through. I hope that Roy & Co. keep their eyes (and options) open for those four star kids (the Frasors and Greens) who prove to be immensily valuable to a championship team. Jackie Manuel and Jawad Williams come to mind also. Those are the types of kids/athletes who give the program stability.
IF, John Wall comes to UNC, and our program is seen (as some might see it now) as an NBA factory first, then continuity is fractured. I know that we have WAY too much history for the thinking fan’s perspective to ever be swayed into the whole “one-and-done” mindset. However, a lot of these young kids look at UNC basketball and they think big names. Hey, that is great, but it is also a program of near unparalleled consistency, of which only 3-4 schools in the country can come close to matching.
Point? I still think (and would be most happy) if certain recruits looked past UNC because of it’s high standards, or the demands of the commitment to UNC basketball, and chose to pursue a one-and-done at another school. I really have a hard time thinking that a team can consistently be near the top when the roster changes every year, certain players roles are reduced so that five-star hotshots can impress NBA scouts for a season, and the coach has to make annual stylistic shifts to accomodate the personnel. If Cal can do that, season after season, then good for him. I’ll tip my cap to the guy who can operate with that revolving door format. I’m just saying that I would much rather see us stockpile some more Greens and Frasors, as opposed to giving in to an all-out recruit battle for the latest five star.
Then again, if John Wall were to go to Dook…
Hansbrough obviously is an all time great but it is impossible to make categorical statements about the future. Was Brendan Wright as good as Hansbrough? Probably. Will UNC ever have another freshman front court player as good as Wright? Probably. From here, the mathematics of replacement are not that difficult.
Bobby Jones and Mitch Kupchak certainly brought greatness to UNC and both were replaced and obviously, it didn’t take four guys.
When I was at UNC, we went undefeated in the ACC twice and had guys like Worthy, Jordan and Perkins leave, followed by Daugherty, Smith, Reid and Scott Williams.
I would agree that Hansbrough was slightly better than either Jones or Kupchak(although virtually no one expects him to equal Kupchak or Jones in the NBA) as a collegian, although probably not better than Perkins, Worthy or Daugherty, but that doesn’t make the task impossible, especially given the success that Williams has had recruiting big of late, with Hansbrough, Wright, Davis, Henson, Zeller, etc. all signing up the last five years.
Great write-up on both Henson and McDonald by Aran Smith at NBADraft.net, regarding their play at the Nike Hoop Summit game:
John Henson — 10 pts, 5-9 fg, 9 reb, 2 blk, 17 min — Henson was the leading rebounder for the USA squad with 9, despite playing just 22 minutes. He definitely should have been in the game in the final 3 minutes instead of Sidney who was absolutely useless.
Henson has a long ways to go but shows a great deal of upside. But at his current weight, he has no NBA position.
He’s incredibly long and athletic and shows an excellent skill set with the ability to score around the basket as well as knock down midrange jumpers. But he still must develop a much nastier on court demeanor. He needs around 30-35 pounds and a mean streak. He shows some ability to create for himself, but nothing that would indicate that he can play on the perimeter at the NBA level.
Regardless, with such immense potential, he appears to be a likely future lotto pick. However, he more than anyone would benefit from 2-3 years in college to allow his body to develop and to improve his skill level.
He’s a better shooting version of Brandon Wright, but even skinnier, and without quite the length.
Leslie McDonald — 8 pts, 4-10 fg, 2 reb, 19 min — Looked extremely impressive in the practice hanging out with his UNC buddy Henson. His athleticism is above average and he’s got a very strong body which should allow him to overcome his lack of optimum size at 6-4.
McDonald shows the ability to get to rim and finish as he has a quick first step and good touch and body control around the basket.
Although Dexter Strickland is a more highly rated recruit, McDonald appears to have more long term potential. No question, McDonald is small for the 2g position at the NBA level but has a great body and explosiveness. He should be an excellent 3-4 year player at North Carolina.
I already love John Henson.
“Bryan, North Carolina: Which Plumlee will be more fun to dunk on, Miles or Mason?
SportsNation John Henson: Since I’ve already dunked on Mason before, Miles is next in line.”
Based on the interview, he has just enough swagger to make him a good competitor, but not enough that I worry about him butting heads with Roy.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=25978
And, oh yeah, John Wall made some comments in there give me hope that he’s coming to Chapel Hill.
Coach Williams does not activity recruit “one and done” players with the exception of Wright and “maybe” Wall. And in both circumstances Roy has/had the luxury of being able to withstand the one and done exit due to the depth of his recruiting classes (e.g. Thompson and Stepheson in Wright’s class and a developing Drew II along with Marshall committed for 2010 as it pertains to Wall). I think Coach Williams does an excellent balancing act of mixing big time stars that may only be in college for a year or two with players that will take three to four years to develop. Nothing wrong with getting the star that plays his way into a lottery pick in his first or second year as long as you have the depth to withstand the departure within your program, which Carolina does currently as well as in the past couple of years. Take this recruiting class for example, Henson has the potential to be a one and done, but the Ware twins are 4yr players and McDonald and Strickland are at least 3yr players depending on how they develop.
I’ve stopped fretting on most items related to Carolina basketball now that Coach Williams is in charge, not only can the man flat out coach, but he is the best recruiter in the business. And the cupboards will never be bare as long as Coach Roy is at the helm. If you want to worry about something, it would be finding a replacement for Coach Williams say 8 to 10 years down the road.
Here’s a recent Wall chat room remark on what is important to him:
John Wall: Staying close to home, making sure I get along with the coach, the community of the school. You have to feel that you feel safe and like a family.
He goes on to laud specific conferences: Big East, Big 12, and ACC!
Fingers crossed. And I think he would play for at least two years.
“And I think he would play for at least two years.”
Keep smoking, it makes reality much easier to bear. Find it funny how everyone’s tone on this kid and his entourage changed once it was “rumored” that there is the possibility that he might end up in good guy blue next year.
My fingers are crossed that he goes somewhere else besides Chapel Hill and that Larry Drew outplays him in every match up with either Kentucky or Duke. From a 1,000 ft view, my opinion is Carolina doesn’t need the baggage or the risk that John Wall might bring playing for Carolina. But again I’ll trust Roy and his view of the kid’s character and any baggage that may come with him.
Does anyone else find it interesting that there still is no word on a scholarship offer from UNC for Wall, like everyone expected once Lawson and Ellington announced? Maybe Coach Williams really isn’t sold on adding this kid for the 2009/10 season, and from an outside view I understand why….
Wow. Strong words SD11. Nothing there that I really take any argument against. If we get him, I think that’s great, but at least we are in a decent position regardless of his choice.
I have to say that I like what I saw from LD II at the end of the season and I expect him to get better over the summer.
Me too Keith. But the pressure is all on him because he is our one and only true pg on this team. And while we couldn’t win it all without Lawson, at least he did have the comfort of having Bobby & Larry to back him up. That does allow you to take more risks, and when you are as athletic & quick as Lawson, those risks become success. Drew will not have that at his disposal next year.
Drew showed considerable improvement later in the year. Still, his productivity was nothing like Lawson’s. He seems to be able to run the team, but his own offensive output is low.
From all I have heard, Wall has more offense right now, and more potential. It might well turn out that his “baggage” is too heavy for the high standards of our program, and if so, so be it. But I think it’s premature and a mite unfair at this point to judge either Wall or Coach Williams’ moves in the recruitment game — moves that none of us can be sure we know all that much about.
If it’s Drew next year, we can live with that and succeed. But I don’t know of anyone who thinks we’d be a legitimate contender for the national chaampionship.
Next year is going to be a strong year for the ACC. It’s going to be a great year with alot of close games and lots of great competion!
This whole Wall thing is starting to get to me. It’s taking forever!
On another note, I went to the bookstore today! I bought two new UNC books and a Champioship magazine.
uncgirl — Has he proposed yet?
Still waiting. Maybe he wants to graduate first?
Well let’s not compare LD II to Lawson. He’ll have his own game speed and he’ll find the offense that Williams designs for him to run.
uncgirl — He’d better snap you up before Bobbykins moves in.
keithunc — I’m not comparing their styles of play. I’m comparing offensive production, upon which the Roy Williams theory of winning depends. It helps to have a certain numbor of points come out of the PG position and (as Roy always reminds us) a certain number of easy, break-away baskets. We haven’t seen much of either from Drew as yet. This is not to say we won’t.
The departures we have taken (TH, WE, DG and Lawson) mean that a whole big bunch of points have also departed. They have to be replaced. I think it’s fair (indeed necessary) to figure out what each remaining and incoming player can do to help the replacement.
My greatest concern is Clifton, Wall’s AAU coach, a former agent. There is always the possibility Wall has already signed with an agent or will along the way. He sounds like Maurice Clarett to me. Stay away, Roy.
As far as the departures and finding where the points are going to come from, we have a great model in the 2006 team. The points are going to come from the best of the best athletes Roy brings us every year.
reports are starting to come out that Roy has decided not to offer a scholarship to Wall
Sources?
Doesn’t Kentucky need Meeks and Patterson to leave in order to have an available scholarship for Wall?
can’t say, but Wall is narrowing his list at the end of the week, so we will know for sure then.
Holding a scholarship for next year would be a great idea too. If the details that insiders know about the Wall conundrum preclude a deal, then that will be fine! There has never been the least impression of anything public from UNC Basketball in this deal that hasn’t been just right. There certainly has not been the cloy desperation of some of Wall’s other suitors.
wb3-
Do those same sources indicate that Wall will go to either Kentucky or Dook? Basically, I am going to trust Roy & co. completely on this one, but I am not going to be happy if he goes to Dook by default.
There is a topic that no one has discussed yet, which is, does Roy still try to add one more recruit to this class? I’m not sure that the remaining talent (aside from Wall and maybe Bledsoe) out there (at the point guard position) could match what Larry will bring next year. So, maybe holding on to that scholarship is a good idea.
You may be darned certain that if Roy has not offered John Wall a scholarship there is a very substantive for that non-action.
sorry, no information other than what unc basketball is doing (or not doing).
“The departures we have taken (TH, WE, DG and Lawson) mean that a whole big bunch of points have also departed. They have to be replaced. I think it’s fair (indeed necessary) to figure out what each remaining and incoming player can do to help the replacement.”
Only if you are expecting the 2009/10 Tar Heels to perform at the same offensive level as the 2009 National Champions. And if that is your expectation you will be thoroughly disappointed. We may not see that type of offensive production for a while, considering that the 2008/09 team might have been the best offensive team in the history of Carolina basketball.
To be successful Carolina will need the new and returning players to step up and perform at a high or higher level, but that does not necessarily mean points or in the same context as the 2008/09 version of Carolina basketball. Next years team will be unique and will have their own strengths that can be utilized to win basketball games and that most likely will not necessarily be scoring the basketball.
IMHOP, next year’s team has a chance to be one of the best defensive teams in Chapel Hill since 1993. They will have an enormous amount of depth, size, and athleticism. The problem will be this team might not be able to shoot the basketball from the perimeter. But I envision this team, with terrific shot blockers down low (Davis, Thompson, Zeller, etc.), length on the perimeter (Henson and Ginyard), the best perimeter defender in the ACC (Ginyard), and quick point guards that can pressure the ball (Drew II, Strickland, etc.); as a team that could be very tough to score on and also forces alot of turnovers that will allow them to use their athleticism in the open court.
Next year’s team will not even be on the same offensive planet as the 2008/09 Heels and if you are anticipating another season of 20+ point differential you’re in for a long season, but they can still be a very good basketball team by utilizing the strengths they have (size, athleticism, depth, etc.) versus the abilities they may lack (shooting, player that can get create his own shot, etc.), which I’m sure Coach Williams will do.
Next year will be alot of fun watching this team grow, develop, and find ways to win; and it will be even sweeter doing so as the defending National Champions.
A Dook fan told me last night that on a Dook blog that Wall is going to narrow it down to DU & UK. (Typical Dook fan) I asked him where is JW going to fit into their scheme? JW loves to run the floor, not passing the ball 10-15 times before they shoot. UK is too far for him if he stated yesterday that he WANTS to play close to home due to his mom’s health. People I spoke to are split about him coming to Carolina, mainly because he would most definitely be one and done. But didn’t he state earlier he may stay at a school for two years to make sure he is ready for the NBA? I still say he would fit right into Carolina’s scheme of the run & gun offense but in Roy I will trust. Could it be that Roy has offered him a scholarshp but it hasn’t came out? Questions I am thinking about.
wb3-
“sorry, no information other than what unc basketball is doing (or not doing).”
So, are these “reports” purely based on speculation? I have searched on all the local blogsites and no one is reporting anything about Roy pulling UNC out of the mix.
It would appear that you have begun a patchwork of posts about how many here actually feel about the Wall situation. It seems that no non-UNC player has polarized the UNC fanbase to this degree since…hmmm, Kenny Anderson? There was no internet in 1989, but I know quite a few people who were pissed when he said something like “I don’t want to be another horse in Dean Smith’s stable.”
I can email you Dean but can’t write it on here.
What I can honestly say is that recruiting is an art that Roy has mastered. That doesn’t mean he gets every recruit, but I do trust him to recruit who he thinks is best.
If Roy thinks that Wall is a good fit for UNC and decides to recruit him, that is fantastic. If not, that is also fantastic. I am going to watch the team as MSG next November either way.
wb3-
Gotcha. Can I perhaps email you? Thanks.
I heard john wall is 7-feet tall and can consume entire opposing teams with bolts of lightning from his arse ??
sorry…a little “william wallace” fun.
I hear John Wallace is badder than Keyser Söze! Let’s see how many of ya’s catch that one
“she wasn’t just fat, i mean she was orca fat”
“i was picking coffee beans in guatemala”
“give me the keys, you…”
Speaking of next season, does anyone know why Dexter Strickland’s stock has plummeted so much? This time last year, he was ranked #12 in the nation overall, and the #2 shooting guard, behind Lance Stephenson. At the time, he was a five-star recruit. Fast forward to now, and he is currently ranked #34 overall, and he has dropped to a four-star ranking (Rivals).
Does this not remind any of you of Rashad McCants (who also dropped from a five-star to four-star back in 2002)? Both McCants and Strickland were McDonalds All-Americans as well. I know that McCants always came with a “huge upside” tag, and I’m not sure that the same has been said about Strickland. They are two different players, sure, but the decline in the rankins (over 20 points!) is a little concerning. Perhaps Strickland played well enough to earn an early top-15 ranking, then has simply witnessed more motivated players (who are trying to impress those recruiting them) pass him by.
the news and disturber today states from Wall that – Roy has not contacted him since Detroit.
Is there some reason we should think that he was coming to Chapel Hill? not on any reported list of eight that I’ve seen.
purely speculation or media hype?
does he even have the grades?
Obviously, John Wall will not be able to attend Carolina unless he is offered a scholarship by Roy. Immediately after the final four, it appeared that Roy was interested in offering John a scholarship. At this point, it appears that Roy is not interested in offering him a scholarship. So, the odds appear to be in favor of Wall not attending UNC.