This should tide you over for a bit.
First of all, the picks.
J.P. Giglio is going with a Duke-UNC finish at the top. Robbi Pickeral is swapping those two. What goes on below the UNC-Duke blood bath is anyone’s guess and even Giglio admits that this could be a repeat of 1995 giving us a four way tie or even 2007 when UNC grabbed the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament with 11 wins but five teams within one game of that. In short, everyone has deficiencies which will lead to an inexplicable loss here or there in addition to ones you would expect them to lose.
Point is this race will be closer than close. So what separates 11-5 from 9-7? Coaching. Experience. Outside shooting. Motivation. The schedule. Talent.
The Heels have the coaching and talent in spades and the schedule can’t be that bad because UNC can’t play UNC.
Experience? Only forward Deon Thompson and wing Marcus Ginyard have more than two college starts.
Outside shooting? Point guard Larry Drew II, shooting guard Dexter Strickland and Ginyard are not Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. That’s not a knock, it’s just fact. The current group has a different skill set.
And while Roy Williams’ fast-break offense is not predicated on the 3-pointer, Lawson (51), Green (77) and Ellington (85) combined to make 213 3s last season. No other ACC team had three players make 50 or more 3s.
Motivation? This is a biggie. How many times did Williams mention Sports Illustrated (or the AP) didn’t rank UNC in the preseason top 25? Or that UNC was picked sixth in the conference? Ol’ Roy burned that respect card into the ground, then lit the ashes on fire to stoke that post-title team to the tilt.
This post-title team will go off in the top-5 nationally and as the preseason favorite. That’s the main difference between this team and that overachieving ‘06 team. And that, my friends, is the difference between going 12-4, and striving to prove the world wrong, and settling in comfortably at 10-6.
The point is well taken. If UNC cannot find the perimeter shooting then it could cripple them. Three pointers are daggers in the heart of an opposing team and UNC in 2008 and 2009 often found a way to mercilessly stick a knife in another team to close the deal. Without that UNC because frontcourt heavy and a good zone will hurt them tremendously. Giglio does not bring up defense which I think will be better for UNC. Ed Davis is going to guard the basket and by all accounts Leslie McDonald, Larry Drew and Marcus Ginyard all can play solid defense. John Henson has so much length Jay Bilas is right now searching for a new word to describe it. You also have Tyler Zeller being seven feet tall and hopefully learning to use that to alter shots even if he cannot outmuscle opposing players. I think the Heels will be a better defensive team which could mitigate some of the offensive shortcomings. You still have to score points though because if playing great defense was all you needed, Big Ten teams would win more national titles than they presently do. In terms of motivation, I ain’t buying the idea this team is going to be complacent. Roy will have the freshman playing motivated basketball and I personally think Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard fully intend to assume ownership of this team and lead them in the right direction.
ACC Now delves more into what UNC is looking at this season. It basically boils down to: Frontcourt: Great! Backcourt: Unknown. Perimeter shooting: Unknown. Also quoted is Dave Telep who goes as far as to call John Henson possibly one of three best players ever recruiting by Roy Williams. I hope like heck he plays that way from day one.
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Excellent insight. From all that I have both seen and read, Henson is not only a blue-chip talent, but he seems like a really good kid. I’m not 100% sold on him going pro after next season. Aside from injury, the other area in which he needs to improve upon (and others have wrote about this to no end) is his weight. He’s simply too thin. Maybe a year of getting busted up in the trenches of the ACC block battles will hasten the pace (for him putting on a little bulk).
Great recruit, no question. Oh, then there are four more!
Any will graves sightings/updates? this year’s team should be FUN to watch. We all know we need to answer a lot of perimeter questions, but if you look at the guys who will be on the court, this team should be putting teams on lock down. That combined with the athleticism and ability to run the court of our bigs + john henson and this should be some fun up and down action. That doesn’t win you championships of course, but nonetheless fun.
For perimeter play, i’m hoping Will Graves’ game is still developing, to the point where he can come in and be an offensive threat from outside or slashing. we need all the outside potency we can get. past that, our outside shooting will boil down to larry, marcus, and strickland’s collective ability to knock down a high enough percentage to command respect from other teams to open up passing and driving lanes, which is where their collective bread and butter will be.
can’t wait!
Jordan makes a good observation. I did notice that the article left out Will Graves as a guy the Heels could bring in to stretch potential zone defenses. I wonder if there was a reason to leave his name out? (Yes, I’m thinking like a State fan now, sorry).
Click over and read the team capsule on the 2nd link. Giglio mentions Graves there:
3-point shooting. UNC lost 88.2 percent of the 3-point shooting off of last year’s title team, and the Heels are so thin on the perimeter, junior Will Graves, a reserve suspended midway through last season, will have the opportunity to shovel his way out of the doghouse and into the starting lineup, at least until Strickland finds his sea legs.
I think graves could have a big year. he’s one guy i’ll be watching early on. we’ve typically been giving him a lot of minutes in the first few garbage games, but then he proves that he’s not ready to play big time ACC games so he gets shelved. but we’ve also had the luxury of having a crap ton of firepower. i think this year w/ more of a need for his shooting, he’ll get some big minutes. he’s an investment i’d like to see roy make and stay with all year in hopes it pays off for the stretch run. everyone knows he can shoot, but shooting in a game is entirely different.
if we’re thinking he’s going to be DG off the bench in 08, we’re wrong, but the kid’s got a body and a nice touch, so here’s hoping he’s learned his lesson after last year and is working his butt off this summer!
I may be the only one still using Windows 2000 because I prefer its general level of customization, but those italics really look terrible on my laptop–of course, it could just be me–remember Austin Powers in that movie when he is drinking the coffee?
I think this is going to be a really unpredictable season and probably a more fun one all around, even assuming that we don’t win it all. I just re-watched the UNC-Duke special from HBO and they remarked that UNC was now back on top of Duke, 4 titles to 3 after the 2005 championship, so we do have a little breathing space and it is now Duke’s chance for desperation, kind of how we felt in 2004 in general, or in 2005 during the 2nd half of the second Duke game.
If I were Roy, I would remind these guys just how quickly things can change. In mid-season 2005, Duke had beaten UNC 16 games out of 19. Since then, UNC has beaten Duke 7 out of 9, I believe and won two titles to Duke’s zero during that period.
Yes, that is how quickly things can change.
There is realy nothing new in any of these speculative reports. Because of the system and returning players, UNC should get off to a good start. It is going to be a question of who delivers and how they react to the pressures of competition.
A key point to this season is that lots of teams have lost key players. The level of experience in the league is way down, especially in back court play.
I hope that Williams and his staff will continue to emphasize that the vast majority of minutes played, starts, points/3 point shots, free throws, assists, rebounds and more have left the building! That will make the season exciting and unpredictable.
Thanks THF, saw the mention of Graves after my post.
^ Good point from AZ in that many of the guys in the ACC who gave us heartburn (except for Vasquez) have left the building as well. I’m referring to Rice, Douglas, Teague and McClinton.
Outside the league the matchup with MSU will be a lot of fun early on……
NEWS FLASH!
ESPN is reporting, for the second time in as many weeks, that Mike Krzyzewski will be caoching the US Olympic basketball team in 2012!!!!
Did anyone know?
“I’m beginning to detect your sarcasm.”
‘Good, because I’m laying it on pretty thick.”
David Spade, “Tommy Boy”