Tell me if you have heard this one before. National title winning team loses huge chunks of the offense to the NBA and graduation and then is forced to rely on a handful of uppeclassmen who have never been in the spotlight and freshmen. Yes, this is 2006 all over again, however since UNC returns much more experience this season than they did in 2006, it also has shades of 2007 to it. At least the polls are treating it like it is 2007 since the Heels are a consensus top ten team in the preseason. Given what I have heard or seen, that ranking is a tad high and the road that leads to March stands to be a little bumpy early on.
What We Know
UNC returns Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller, Larry Drew, Ed Davis, Will Graves and Marcus Ginyard from a team that won 34 games and crushed the NCAA Tournament like the Tar Heels were hosting a holiday tournament. Of those six players, only two of them saw significant time on the court. Ginyard and Zeller were injured with the former redshirting and the latter playing only sparingly. Graves was suspended midway through the season and Drew played the minutes one would expect for a player backing up the ACC Player of the Year. Still this group is experienced and has competent team leadership in Ginyard and Thompson.
UNC has plenty of frontcourt scoring, as illustrated by Friday night’s exhibition game against Belmont-Abbey. There were three double figure scorers, all big men: Thompson, Davis and Zeller. The offense will run through the interior which is not unusual in a Roy Williams coached team but what might be different is that is where most of the scoring will happen as opposed to getting offense on the perimeter. Speaking of which, the experience on the perimeter is basically Ginyard. Drew will still be getting his feet wet at point and Graves is questionable. Whether these three can produce reliable three point shooting remains to be seen. What doesn’t is that this team will be great on the defensive end. Not only are they long but for the most part are focused on the defensive end. All of them, save Graves move their feet well and Davis, Thompson and Zeller will be solid in protecting the basket. Add to the freshman with a 6-10 John Henson roaming the perimeter along with 6-9 David and Travis Wear you basically have personnel who can give most opposing offenses matchup fits across the board.
What We Don’t Know
The three biggest concerns coming into the season are Drew’s play at PG, perimeter shooting and whether the freshmen will be able to contribute enough to fill the gaps. After watching the exhibition it appears the Wears are the most ready to make an impact now. Henson was a tad disappointing but odds are he will be very effective at SF by the end of the season. Dexter Strickland has talent and athleticism but needs experience. Once Strickland learns the system he should be serviceable backing up Drew. Leslie McDonald might see the least amount of time among the freshmen, though the needs on the perimeter could force Roy to play him more simply for the sake of depth.
The point guard play and perimeter shooting concerns are well documented so I won’t spend much time on them here. In short, UNC needs just enough three point shooting to keep opposing defenses from packing into a zone. The versatility of the UNC big men will prevent that to some extent but still some three point shooting is needed. At PG, Drew’s line from the Belmont-Abbey game of 2 points, 8 assists and 3 turnovers was decent but UNC needs more from that position. Also, what is often important with a PG does not show up in the box score. The feel and flow of the offense is dictated by the PG and on Friday that flow was out of kilter. While Drew did end up with eight assists, there were opportunities missed due to Drew making a poor decision. It did not result in a turnover and at times it ultimately led to a basket but the failure to get the easy bucket was there. Improvement in that area will be key to getting the offense moving efficiently.
What to Expect
This team has a legitimate shot at defending the 2009 title assuming the pieces fall into place. Unfortunately that will not be evident early on and a schedule that includes three top ten teams in December will test the resilience of this team. The upside is losses against top ten teams do not harm NCAA seeding down the road. If UNC gels by late January through to March they will be in excellent shape for a 3rd straight Final Four run. The final weekend is always a crapshoot to some extent so if UNC can simply get there, who knows what can happen then. Whatever the case, UNC has Roy Williams and his experience in going through this cycle of rebuilding following a title run induced attrition. There is no coach I trust more to manage a team with this many questions than Roy as 2006 has proven.
In terms of predictions, this looks like about a six loss season. UNC can win the ACC regular season but closes with a brutal four of six on the road so that could make finishing first in a tight race with Duke tough, especially since the Heels close at Hansbrough Indoor Stadium. Roy’s disdain for the ACC Tournament is known so that is not even worth talking about. As for the NCAAs it is all a matter of seeding and matchups. I do expect at least a Sweet Sixteen berth as the basement with winning the title as the potential ceiling, again assuming the pieces fall into place.
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I think UNC’s season this year will be similar to MSU’s and KU’s of last year. MSU was obviously ranked much higher than KU was at the beginning (as is UNC), but both suffered through some pretty tough losses early, but then rebounded nicely in conference play. MSU then beat KU in a close S16 game and went on to have a great run in the tourney. Both teams then returned everyone (plus a few top recruits) and are now odds on favorites to win it all.
Don’t be surprised if UNC’s season preview a year from now reads very similarly…
The key to this season is to have low expectations. This after all is a rebuilding year. We were incredibly spoiled by having a supremely gifted PG in Ty Lawson. One has to just look at his numbers at Denver to know how good he is (as an aside let me add that it is a travesty that the all-knowing NBA scouts drafted Jonny Flynn higher than Lawson; Flynn is a razzle-dazzle guard who does well when he is hogging all the possession but he is by no means a better PG). I would also like to add that Lawson peaked in his third year, so to expect Larry Drew to perform miracles in his first year as the primary PG would be very unfair.
Sure, out of kilter, but one exhibition game? We’ll see as the box of cupcakes opens up next week and they get time playing together. Even last year’s team got out of kilter on several occasions.
If any big man can hit threes, I don’t think the coach would hesitate to keep a zone honest by having them do it on a secondary break, where the ignored big guy is lumbering up to the key… a quick pass and a three, and the other coach has to think about how many times the Heels will run that play if they stay in a zone.
What I want to know is what genius scheduled the NC CENTRAL GAME at 9pm!? I understand really big games being late, but NC CENTRAL!? The only possible drama in that game is whether the walk-ons are good enough this year to get us into triple digits in the last five or six minutes. No one is going to stay up to midnight for that.
We’re just not a top 5-10 team right now. For instance we’ll struggle with any D-I squad with experienced guards; that isn’t a knock on the current squad so much as it is an appreciation of the value of experience. It took the already-almost-legendary 2009 team three years to gel, and yet for some reason this year’s team, with little experience at three of five positions, is widely heralded as being of Final Four caliber. I think it’s interesting that so many experts talk about the matchup problems our big lineup is going to create, but that works both ways. And then of course there’s the point guard situation that everyone acknowledges but then ignores when it comes time to rank us. We won’t have the fast break we had last year and we have no proven shooters, so I suppose this squad is expected to execute the half-court offense better than ‘09 did after three/four years of playing together. I hope that turns out to be the case. I agree we could make a strong run down the stretch if everything breaks in our favor, but there will be more than six losses along the way.
Down At The Heel
while they anoint this team as final four contenders at the start of the season,i fear that the media will not be so kind if and when the losses come.poor larry drew.like it or not,he is about to be under college basketballs microscope.perhaps roy should arrange a meeting with q.he could shed some light on what its like to be almost disrespected by crazed fans.people use to cringe whenever he came into the game.quentin never got the respect he deserved until his senior year,yet he took all the pressure in stride.
The most important thing is for us just to look at this season as one big pot of gravy. Remember how much fun 2006 was because we didn’t have any pressure on the team. If we look at it this way, then I think we’ll be in for a fun ride.
As for predictions on numbers of losses, I would be ecstatic with 6. If we can go into January with only 3 losses (say at KY, at Texas and then one of either OSU or MSU) and then go 12-4 in the ACC, which almost every year gets you the league title. I’d be really happy. Again, everytime the team takes a knock this year just look up at that 2009 banner and remember this is a great time to be a Tar Heel.
Well said Ed. That’s exactly my take on this year. The preseason ranking is too high obviously and is based on reputation more than fact. The numbers Ed noted is a best case scenario for us I think. Reasonably I think we can expect the Heels to keep the 20 win streak alive, finish between 2-4 in the ACC regular season, give teams fits in the ACC tourney, and then at least make it to the sweet 16. If we do that and steal a win here and there I will be happy with this season. Anything beyond that is gravy.
I think everyone is taking some lackluster performances in an exhibition game and a “secret” scrimmage a little too literally. Unlike the past two years, where we knew what we had by the start of the season; this team will grow and improve exponentially by the end of the year. With the number of new and inexperienced parts it won’t be unusual to see drastic improvements even on a week to week basis. Stop trying to pin point a loss total or an ACC finish, and instead enjoy the ride. This will be an exciting team to watch as they progress through out the season. Yes, this team will have flaws, but so does every other team in the nation at this point.
With the talent in the front court and the ability of this team to defend (which they are just beginning to scratch the surface on how good they can be defensively), IF this team makes ANY outside shots (1-2 a half) they will be very difficult to handle by anyone in the country. But on nights when they are unable to convert outside shots, this team will struggle against teams with similar talent (hello Texas, Kentucky, Duke) or an experienced backcourt (hello Cal, MSU, and Maryland).
But come March, no one who has National Championship aspirations will want to see Carolina on their side of the bracket. Just give this team time to grow, mesh, and develop while enjoying the ride knowing that a couple bumps in the road may be in store during the months of November, December, and January.
great comment scl11 and i totally agree we should all enjoy the ride. this would be a totally different conversation if we didn’t have 2005 and 2009 to look to as far as how a program should ideally develop, each year working towards the same goal with a bigger picture in sight, b/c you literally can’t win them all. this will be a fun ride, i love the start of every season, learning about new players, seeing whose made strides towards improvement since last year, and seeing how this team plays together. I can’t wait!
As far as the post season is concerned, again, SCL11 hits it on the head. a team does NOT want to see us in their bracket, bc unlike last year where teams thought they knew the keys to stopping us, this year will be much different. you can’t “stop” great defense and athleticism, where we could essentially disrupt any teams game plan.
I actually see our team this year as a classic Tom Izzo type team. a team that has ups and downs through the year, but who is built for the tourney with depth, size, and defense. and the years his teams do really well, it’s b/c they can find some offense. so as long as our constants remain constant (defense rebounding), then while we should not be a favorite by any means, it just takes a few big buckets to fall and we could pull an upset or two here and there and have a really successful season.
GO HEELS!
I smell sagging defenses all year long. I see 10 to 17 losses if we can not hit the three. Hopefully we (no, I do not have a mouse in my pocket) taste two wins against dook. Go Heels and good luck this season, it’s going to be a ride. Remember the sky is not falling if the losses come in numbers (that was for me).
^Optimism at its best…
yeah, i think 4 losses is very optimistic b/c you have ups and downs all year and if you lose 3-4 games in 2005 and 2009 w/ seasoned polished teams winning championships….but there also aren’t 8 dominant teams so i think if we finish strong we could still get a 2 seed….