Seth Davis: You Know What Could Happen? UNC Could Be Unranked By Janaury

Tar Heel Fan on November 9th, 2009 |

Seth Davis on Twitter:

sethdavis

I am sure that makes Davis giddy to think about UNC being unranked in January, which would be a fall from the top ten in a matter of eight weeks. I bet Davis hasn’t felt this good about a prediction since picking Michigan St. to win the 2009 title game…oh wait!

Logically, I don’t competely follow Davis here, unless he thinks UNC is going to lose five or six games early on. If we assume the three losses UNC incurs are the ones to MSU, UK and Texas then logically they should still be hanging around in at least the top 15. Should UNC lose more than that, then I suppose they could drop out since according to last season’s polls, there were no teams with more than three losses in the poll when January rolled around. Of course, I am not sure anyone last season played three top five teams in December and a pair of other top 25 teams besides that which is what UNC is looking at. Given the brutal nature of the Tar Heel schedule I would expect them to remain ranked despite as many as four losses assuming they come at the hands of the aforementioned Final Four contenders and either Cal or Ohio St.

Actually Davis is not that far out of line here. Jeff Goodman on the other hand picked UNC to lose in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament and put Georgia Tech in the Final Four. Now that’s stupid.

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C. Michael

November 9th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

I’m not the biggest fan of Seth Davis, but to be fair, he doesn’t predict that UNC will be out of the Top-25 by January.

The question he was asked is, “which team is most LIKELY to be be out of the T25?”

Now, he could have just said, “None,” but that is boring, and writers aren’t paid to be boring, so he really had to choose one of the T10 teams. Given all questions we’ve all beaten to death, along with the schedule, I can’t disagree with the notion the UNC is the, “most likely,” to fall out of the T25, I just think the the chances of ANY of the T10 falling that far are very remote.

scl11

November 9th, 2009 at 4:06 pm

Yeah, saw the GA Tech prediction from Goodman, what a knob! Hitching your horse to a Paul Hewitt coached team, brillant.

Tar Heel Fan

November 9th, 2009 at 4:13 pm

Especially since the Jackets needed OT to beat Indiana(PA) in an exhibition game on Sunday. I think someone is putting too many eggs in Derrick Favors’ basket. Of he ain’t the only one. Gary Parrish had them as a #2 seed in his bracket and Duke a #3. I know Lawal is good and Shumpert will be better, Favors will likely be ROY but I seriously believe Hewitt is trumps them all.

November 9th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

^Plus with Kentucky that is 2 teams that did not even qualify for the NCAAT last year that Goodman has playing in the final weekend. Yes, they both have some talented players coming in, but it is rare to make a jump from missing the NCAAT to making the Final Four. Goodman, along with all these other honks picking UK to win it all, is basically saying coaching and experince are meaningless in the NCAAT.

TheUNCFan

November 9th, 2009 at 4:38 pm

Ranks this early mean NOTHING – I don’t know why anyone pays attention to them. No one has played a meaningful game. Start ranking teams the third week in January. Remember when State was in the top 25 (preseason) and completely self-destructed? (Other examples left as an exercise.) If UNC is unranked in Jan, it means a LOT of so-called experts will be wiping egg off their faces for their inability to scout the team properly.

November 9th, 2009 at 4:42 pm

“Goodman, along with all these other honks picking UK to win it all, is basically saying coaching and experince are meaningless in the NCAAT.”

Unless you are talking about UNC, in which case, lack of experience is THE reason that UNC will get knocked out in the 2nd round. (For the record, UK’s outside shooting is just as suspect as UNC’s is. Neither Wall or Bledsoe will kill you from 3.)