First half was good. 2nd half? Not so much.
Some losses will come, especially at this stage. The biggest problem UNC has is they have a top ten schedule and were handed a top ten ranking because the pollsters decided to overcompensate for what happened in 2006. By virtue of the fact UNC beat Ohio St we have a feel for about where they are and it is more in the 10-15 range. This game was a de facto road game for UNC and for 25 minutes UNC played some good basketball. The killer was the ten minutes of the 2nd half. It was bad. It was Kansas Game bad. I think the degree of meltdown was so freaking shocking. We knew this team would struggle but I am not sure we thought it would be like that. There were missed layups, airballs, getting outrebounded and Syracuse hitting their shots. It was just an ugly combination of various circumstances than ultimately led to a twenty point deficit from which UNC could not recover.
Are there positives? Sure. Ed Davis was good but had issues with the Orangemen’s much more physical front line. Marcus Ginyard stepped up his game, especially when it fell apart. His play and leadership did get the Heels back within ten before Syracuse extended again. The Wear Twins were very good, seeing serious minutes after things got out of hand but playing well all the same. Tyler Zeller hit some shots here and there. Outside of that no one else really played well. Will Graves started out hot but ultimately forced too many shots and ended up 2-12. Deon Thompson continues to have problems scoring in traffic and holding onto the basketball. Defensively UNC just had too many matchup issues, especially with the more physical interior players and the Orangemen hit the shots OSU missed 24 hours prior.
Ultimately, UNC just played badly. Seriously. We can sit around and question many factors but at the end of the day UNC played a crappy game. Shot the ball poorly. Played defense poorly. At the same time, Syracuse did the complete opposite. The result was pretty much what you imagine it would be if one team plays badly and the other plays well.
The question now is whether there is anything to be done outside of letting this team continue to develop? I want to say yes but I don’t see practice and I hate to use five games as a sample to determine anything. I do think there are serious issues with various players not understanding their role in the offense or what to do at certain times on the court. Practice and experience are going to solve part of that. The other part of the answer is the rotation taking some kind of defined form. Roy plays fast and loose with the substitutions sometimes, especially at this stage of the season when he is trying to get a grasp on who can do what. At some point that rotation will settle down. When that happens hopefully the offense will take a nicer form than it is right now. I do know holding onto the basketball needs to be a major priority for pretty much everyone on the team. Unfortunately there is no magic salve for that and developing good hands could take awhile.
Roy’s postgame comments indicated that much of what happened in this game can be worked out with more practice and experienced. Yes there are holes, ones they will have to really work on to hide. I do know the right coach is handling the situation and all we, as fans, can do is exhibit some patience. The problem is the schedule which fitthe team last season instead of this one. One of the factors in the 2006 season that really helped that team develop was a light schedule. UNC did not play any preseason tourneys, faced only a few quality teams prior to ACC play and was able to win most of them. It was basically an incubator for confidence and Roy grew it through the first three months of the season so when February rolled around we had a nice crop of players who then went to Duke and rolled JJ Redick on his senior night. UNC will not be afforded the incubator experience so you have to hope that no matter what, the young Heels can continue to develop despite some rough games ahead.
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As I mentioned in comment # 141 on the game thread (!!!), there is one more thing to do beyond concentrating on ball handling, and that is to get our inside players to the weight room. We were getting pushed around under the basket, and it cost us. It will again, especially against Dook, which has height of its own this year.
Beyond that, patience and the assurance that time will bring improvement will make for some relief, but there are limits. We don’t have a go-to guy, we don’t have outside shooting and we don’t have an all-forty-minutes defense.
Ed Davis put up points, but when UNC needed someone to step up in that scoring void, Davis was nowhere to be found. This team needs someone they can count on as a “go to guy” that can get them a bucket when they are struggling, the role Hansbrough took over as a freshman. I thought it would be Ed, but he hasn’t shown it to this point. He’s the guy that seems to have the skill set, now he needs to show the desire.
Wow. Wow. And not in a good way.
We looked great climbing back into the game in that first half, and as equally as bad in the second half letting it get away from us.
I thought our offensive woes carried over into our defensive attitude/play in the second half. Guys not converting and matching, not boxing out, not contesting shots, not talking on screens. Typical of a young team, but this group will need it’s defense to carry them through rough offensive patches.
LD was really bad tonight. I think he’s in such a hurry to get up the floor he has no idea where he’s going or what he wants to do. Plus, I’m a better shooter than him, and that’s not a good thing. Not even close tonight. Too bad we have nothing behind him.
We need Ed Davis to step up. Way too many times in the paint he passed instead of shooting. Deon was a wimp tonite and failed to show an ounce of leadership. Man up.
Wears looked good, but our “big” lineup is exposed by a team like ‘Cuse that’s athletic and can shoot from perimeter, but still have physical bigs inside.
The thing that chaps my hide is that I know, come March, Syracuse is going to be around 17-12, on the bubble, and be milking this victory. I can hear Boeheim whine now.
This current roster has so many flaws. But, the talent level will hide or overcome them on most nights. Point guard play is a huge problem at the moment, Drew does seem yet to be able to put pressure on the defense in the half court, Strickland is not a point guard, and Ginyard can only play there for a few possessions before any good coach will apply pressure. The front line is long but very skinny and we may have old Deon back. Hopefully, a go to player will emerge.This is going to be a roller coaster ride of a season with flashes of brilliance and nights like tonight.
I only got to see the very end of the first half and the rest of the game, so I can’t comment on what I saw in the first half.
I think we saw a mix of two things here. Charles is right that Syracuse will suck for a stretch in Big East play and probably only get a 7,8, or 9 seed in the big dance. The UNC win will get them in the dance, and I think that some of their stellar play on offense was a little bit flukish (if there’s such a word). With that being said, they’re very tough on defense and their agressive zone play gave UNC fits all night. Couple that with terrible play at the point from Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland, and there was bound to be a blowout looming.
Now that opposing coaches have the blueprint, UNC will have to do a much better job at attacking the zone. You can’t pass the ball between two players around the perimeter without putting the ball on the inside. It seemed that whenever Ed, Deon, or Zeller touched the ball and were getting double teamed, no other player would run into the zone and help out in the “soft” or open spot in the zone. That’s something that Roy will (and I think he’s been hitting it already) hit hard in practice and I think you’ll see some drastic improvement in that aspect.
UNC obviously has a lot of talent, but I notice a lack of court chemistry out there. Players knowing their roles and trusting each other to be where they need to be will help progress this team, and it isn’t quite there yet.
I think all the reasonalbe fans knew there would be ups and downs this year, but this is the first test; if this team responds well with good showings against Texas, MSU, and Kentucky (which I think is the most winnable game in this brutal stretch coming up), then we know they’re on the right track. Three blowout losses would be cause for concern.
The entire trip is a test. Three halves of good basketball. One ten minute period of poor play.
That’s all.
The areas of weakness have been evident since 4 starters left. Even with the team of last year, there were periods when Green or Lawson or Ellington had an off game or two and things looked scary.
Few teams have it right at this time of the year.
Surely the players who were pushed around and let down defensively will see exactly what happened extensively. Then they will have to improve or else.
As rathskellar68 mentioned: I miss Tyler Hansbrough. It is really easy to see what his absence means, even to Deon Thompson.
Well, that was rough. I haven’t turned off my t.v. during a game in a long time. THE ZONE THE ZONE, was handled well in the first half, especially by graves slicing to the basket. The first 8 minutes of the second half nothing but mid range shots. I’m sure Roy will work on the zone and how to attack it. We will see it every game. Get used to it.
As for the schedule, it’s really not as dire as it is being made out to be. Yes, MSU, UK, and Texas is a tough stretch (on paper; I’ve been less than impressed with UK and MSU so far), but they also have 7 other cupcakes on the schedule. At the very worst, this team should be 11-4 going into conference play, and I really think 12-3 or 13-2 is more likely. The 2006 team was 9-2 in the non-conference, so it’s not like they lit the world on fire, despite a pedestrian schedule.
In 5 games this team has shown me far more to be encouraged about then there is discouraged about. This season started with a ton of questions and several have been answered in the affirmative:
1. LDII CAN be a DI PG. 14 assists and 7 TOs over the 2 games in MSG is a completely acceptable ratio.
2. Marcus can be an effective leader and scorer on the wing.
3. Deon Thompson: 17 ppg and 9.3 rpg.
4. Marcus, LDII, Graves, Zeller and the Wears can hit good, open shots. The focus will be on the starting stretch of the second half, and that is myopic. For the better part of this young season UNC has hit the shots that have been taken within the rhythm of the offense. There was no rhythm at the start of the 2nd half last night.
5. The defense will be legit.
6. As will the freshmen.
Questions that remain, but are not (or should not) be considered new:
1. Who will run the show when LDII is on the bench? Like the last 5 years, it looks like the Heels will suffer a drop when their PG1 is on the bench. LDII will need to build to 33-35 mpg.
2. Wither Will Graves? I have no idea, but Roy did not seem particularly pleased with Will yesterday. Given the way the Wears and Hanson have played (in limited minutes) I suspect we may see Graves on a very short leash.
3. Consistency? All teams struggle with this in November; for young teams this can be monumental. Time and practice are the ultimate cure for this. Fortunately, the Heels have a lot of both in front of them.
Notes from Twitter:
From Seth Davis:
“Boeheim very chirpy in SU locker room. Him: ‘So you’re the guy who said we wouldn’t be any good?’ Me: ‘No, that was Luke Winn.’”
“He freely pointed out that there wasn’t a single McDonald’s All-American in his locker room. ‘They [NC] have 10.’ But who’s counting?”
Stay classy, Jimmy. Stay classy. I almost forgot why I despised him more than K. And for the record, UNC has seven McDonald’s All-Americans, not ten, but why let facts get in the way of a good story?
Ed Davis:
“Just got back to chapel hill. Wonder how many fans we will lose?”
LDII:
“jus got bacc to the hill. i second @eddavis32 question”
Only the ones you are better off without…
I think we all expected there to be problems in the backcourt, so I won’t complain when they play poorly. But what shocked me was our big guys getting pushed around in the post. The frontcourt is supposed to be our strength. If we don’t have that then we’ve got nothing this year. I heard, coming in to the season, how we would have a lot of big guys who could run and were mobile and had soft shooting touches. Thats nice, but thats also the type of big man that Duke has tried to use for the last seven or eight years… and it doesn’t work. We have used more traditional big men and we have dominated them (and just about everyone else in the country). I really hope one of our big men can develop into the same sort of low post bangers that Hansbrough and May were.
I’m scared that there’s a zone blueprint out there that we’re going to be facing even more this season.
“I’m scared that there’s a zone blueprint out there that we’re going to be facing even more this season.”
There is a huge difference between a team playing zone against UNC and what Syracuse does. OSU played quite a bit of zone against UNC and it was largely ineffective.
Syracuse IS the zone defense. They do nothing but play zone defense and they recruit players to are ideally suited to play the 2-3. They are the best at it.
A team that normally plays man-to-man and switches to zone for a single game will be no where near as effective as SU is. In fact, they are likely to be far less effective than the would have been playing man because of the natural complacency that sets in when someone plays the zone as a “gimmick.”
UNC’s secondary break devastates opponents with its relentless up-and-down attack, but part of what makes it so successful is the fact that UNC runs it all of the time and recruits players specifically for that system. Other teams can try to do it, but unless they are fully committed to it, it is more likely to result in sloppy turnovers.
^yeah, what CM said. i’m not worried about people trying a zone just for the day they play us.
before i signed in today, i had been thinking about Davis. we’ve already heard a couple times that he seems to be all business this year. the pregame, not smiling or cutting up with the other guys. i was thinking maybe we need him to relax. i dont know if this is some get-ready-for-the-NBA thing he’s doing or what, but i’m concerned about his mindset.
and should we be concerned about these Twitters? do we need the players worrying about what fans think?
HTTE,
I think that is just Ed’s personality. I got to observe him a lot down in Atlanta last year, and even as a role player, he was exactly the same. When I said, “Good luck,” to him at the hotel, he just put his head down and said, “thanks.” Most of the other players were far more interested in interacting with the fans; Ed just seem to want to play basketball. So I don’t think this is something that he has changed for this year. But then again, all I can base that on is superficial observations.
Identifying the holes:
1. Our best shooter is Graves. Our best freshman shooter is one of the Wear twins. You have to have a minimum 2 shooters to be a contender.
2.With Hansbrough, our bigs never saw a double team or got out muscled.
3. Not the best hands team. Thompson, Graves, and Zeller are average at best catching and controlling the ball.
4. Ginyard not the best finisher and Graves not fast enough, so out fast break is contingent on our secondary break with our bigs converting or making the extra pass.
Wishes:
1. Zeller on the low box shooting right and left handed jump hooks.
2. Henson becoming a shooter period.
I would quote a line from Ron Burgundy, but this is not a vulgar site. Davis is a tool, perhaps he will stay in NY for next week, to continue his brown-nosed pursuit of UNC adversaries.
Just substitute ‘Seth Davis’ in place of ‘San Diego’…the scene where Veronica pranks Burgundy with the cue cards.
In the cold light of morning, let’s try to think through what we saw.
What we saw was Carolina playing even or better with Syracuse for three quarters of the game. For one quarter — the infamous ten minutes after halftime — we were outplayed and outclassed. Much of this was because we came unglued; some of it was because Syracuse started hitting everything they put up.
So what does this tell you? It tells you that we are as good as or better than Syracuse (which I think is easily a top 15 team), but that we succeed only with maximum concentration. The talent is there, even with all the holes like inconsistent outside shooting and lack of muscle underneath.
For as unhappy an aftertaste as I’m sure we all have from last night, the real message is not that bad. Again, we were as good or better than a really good team for three-quarters of the game. That simply could not have been the case if we were a team headed for a poor season. And it gives us a base of confidence to try to figure out what to do from here.
There is an old prayer that goes something like: God grant us the strength to change what we can, the peace to accept what we cannot, and the wisdom to know the difference.
That seems particularly apt to our situation. Thus:
1. Deon in never going to be the go-to guy. It’s just not who he is. He’s a prodcutive player and he’s improved for sure, but he is not a leader. We need to accept that.
2. Ginyard probably has to be the guy. He has the temperament for it, and the coach and his teammates seem to look to him for it already. He does not quite have the skill level, but he has shown us that that can be improved. Indeed it has improved markedly this season. And he has the versatility you like to see in a go-to guy. He can nail a three-ball (although not as reliably as WE) and he can create, to an extent, inside.
3. The Wear brothers should get more PT. Am I the only one who sees No. 34 and No. 43 but starts thinking No. 50? I don’t expect them to be Hansbrough, but they seem to me to be fundamentally sound and to have their heads in the game in a way reminiscent of The Great One. And they have his freshman dimensions: 6′9″ and 225 lbs. Like Hansbrough, they play with confidence. Add some muscle, and I really like thinking about their future, and ours. And the future starts now: As I say, more PT, lots more.
4. We stick with LD because we have no choice. He seems to be a good kid with the right attitude, and he’s better than last year to be sure, but he lacks the native talent, quickness, and feel for the floor that a championship team needs at PG.
Unlike some here, I think we should have Drew INCREASE the tempo, not tamp it down. The team’s great strength this year, even more than last, is its depth. We can best exploit that by running the opposition into the ground. That in turn means fast breaking every possession. I know this will lead to yet more dreadful turnovers, but over the long haul of the season, that should improve.
Roy likes to run anyway, and a team this deep is an ideal vehicle for it.
5. I haven’t yet figured out what we should try to do with Henson and Strickland, or Justin Watts (who was awful last year but has the makings of a contributor now). For the moment I would continue to give them the limited PT they’re getting, but I sure hope they can step up, and I believe the native talent is there to make that possible.
All in all, last night creates a legitimate cause for concern, but also a cause for realistic if not enthusiastic hope. Thus, I expect us at the minimum to be in all three of the Texas, KY and MSU games, and I would not be surprised if we took two of three.
That may have been just about the worst UNC performance in a half that I have ever seen. The only game that comes quickly to mind is the Texas Tech debacle back in 1996.
I don’t remember the 2006 squad ever getting hosed like that. The other thing I hate so far from the two games I have seen is that this team is not fun to watch. In the lingo of Brazilian soccer, this year’s squad does not play “the beautiful game.” I know most of you probably don’t care about this, but I do, and deeply. Part of the mystique of Carolina basketball is that we are known for playing basketball that is fun to watch.
I don’t follow the recruiting the way some of you guys do, but where is the Marvin Williams, or B. Wright or McCants or Lawson or Green among these guys? I don’t see a single player on this team that plays with flair. Bobby Frasor looked better in 2006 than any of the ballhandlers that we have seen so far.
I am wondering if some of our players may have been rated a little higher as high schoolers, a la what always happens to Duke. I just don’t seen any talent out there that compares to what we have regularly had on our past teams most years, going back to Jamison, Carter, McCants, Felton, Williams, Hansbrough, Wright, and Lawson.
Is there a single player on this team with that kind of talent? I though Davis might have had it but he looks lost without Hansbrough. Zeller seemed better last year. Maybe Hansbrough deserved every bit of the credit he got.
I can’t compare last night’s dismantling with the Kansas game because Kansas was about ten times better than Syracuse and UNC at least was getting some decent shots in that game. The guys last night looked as though they didn’t even know where to stand on the floor. A zone defense–omg–what is that anyway?
I am watching the football Heels score three early touchdowns against BC and I am wondering If I was in fact right, that you can’t be really good in basketball and football, lol. If the Heels had won that Virginia game, we might be looking at the most impressive UNC season since Bill Dooley.
“I don’t remember the 2006 squad ever getting hosed like that.”
December 21, 2005 UNC versus USC.
UNC led 35-30 at the half.
UNC led 47-46 with 11:26 to go.
UNC outscored 28-12 the rest of the way.
USC was not as good as Syracuse is.
The USC game was pretty bad. USC was decent and may have had just as much talent as Syracuse but they were a year away. Also, it was a West coast road game and at least we had already seen many good performances that year so it was easier not to be disappointed, not to mention that this year’s team is supposed to have much more talent.
By the way, maybe UNC should have the offense take a knee 3 times each series and then punt against BC so we can get the defense back on the field.
“Am I the only one who sees No. 34 and No. 43 but starts thinking No. 50?”
Not really. Hansbrough was very unique player whose like we aren’t likely to see for a very, very long time. I think the Wears will have distinguished careers at UNC, but I’m not sure it’s fair to them to hang the Hansbrough-tag on them. Really, all they share is a body type and skin color, as their games aren’t very similar. Tyler was much stronger and aggressive down low, while the Wears are much more comfortable/capable on the perimeter that Tyler was at this stage of his career (arguably, ever). I tend to see an Okulaja-type player at the low-end, Antoine Walker-type, at the high end (minus the whole, headcase part).
Hansbrough was very unique player whose like we aren’t likely to see for a very, very long time. I think the Wears will have distinguished careers at UNC, but I’m not sure it’s fair to them to hang the Hansbrough-tag on them. Really, all they share is a body type and skin color.
Is there anybody on the current squad who is of the caliber of Hansbrough, Lawson or Carter?
“at least we had already seen many good performances that year so it was easier not to be disappointed”
I’m not sure I agree with this statement, either. Going into the USC game the Heels were 6-1 with a home loss to #12 Illinois and an upset win at #10 Kentucky. Other less-than-stellar wins include Gardner Webb (3 points) UCSB (17 points), St, Louis (12 points), and Santa Clara (18 points).
The 2006 team really didn’t become the team that we all “fell in love with until the middle of February, when the proceeded to win their last 7 ACC games.
“Is there anybody on the current squad who is of the caliber of Hansbrough, Lawson or Carter?”
I’m not sure why this matters? Those guys are all-time talents, so it’s entirely possible that he answer is, “no.” The 1993 team did not have anyone on the roster who could match them, either.
That being said, Lawson and Carter didn’t exactly light the world on fire their freshman years, so it is also possible that someone like Henson could grow into that echelon of player.
I didn’t expect them to even be close in that Illinois game, much less beat Kentucky. The Gardner Webb game was about what I expected and they improved from there to the point where I expected them to beat USC.
Looking back, that team was also short on really good ballhandling point guards, but in retrospect, might have had more talent given the presence of Hansbrough, Green, Terry, Frasor, Ginyard and Noel, especially if Ginyard is supposed to be the star of the current group. Wes Miller wasn’t talented but he shot the lights out the entire season, almost in a fluky matter that he didn’t come close to repeating the following year.
I still think Ed Davis has the potential to play a Bill Russell style game. He has to learn when to challenge and when not to challenge.
I, probably like everyone, am especially disappointed by the point guard play. Obviously, we have been spoiled by having Felton and Lawson for six of the last eight years. It is not easy though to find guys of that talent level who stay for even three years, and we were very fortunate to have Ty have his contretemps last year which resulted in his return.
“Is there anybody on the current squad who is of the caliber of Hansbrough, Lawson or Carter?”
Do those type of players come along in every recruiting class? In Lawson and Hansbrough, you’re talking about players who produced at historic levels in their careers. Carter was great also, but I don’t recall him coming out like gangbusters either at the start of his career. And even with that, did we know that Lawson and Hansbrough were The Lawson and The Hansbrough after five games into their careers? obviously there were signs, but at that point we still didn’t know that we would be able to count on them to the level that we ended up being able too. It seems like you’re comparing these guys to the totality of the careers of these previous players, and comparing them to guys who were all time greats at that.
Another thing, and maybe I’m misreading this, but I get the sense on the boards that people are upset that this team isn’t to this point living up to the 2006 team. What happened in 2006 was an extremely special occurence, and not one that should be expected to be the norm in similar circumstances. In the same situation, 99% of teams are not going to perform as well as the 2006 team. We definitely should appreciate how great a year 2006 was, but it shouldn’t be the bar that all rebuilding teams should be held to.
C. Michael, you said much more succinctly and quickly what I was getting at.
Ed has quietly been very good this year. He’s averaging 11.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 2.0 bpg in only 23 mimutes, but more importantly, he is shooting 76% from the field and 78% from the line. I actually agree with Vitale that he should look to score a bit more. There were a couple of times the past 2 games where he had a decent shot and ended up turning it over trying to make the extra pass.
As for the PG position, Kendall Marshall had 17 points and 11 assists today, so at the worst, UNC is only a year away from having another elite PG.
Hansbrough did it for four years, but I think Montross was at least as good as Hansbrough for that one championship season. I think Montross was a far better defender and that was the year where he made his free throws fairly well.
From what I have heard, Phelps may have been just as good as Lawson, if you consider playmaking and defense. Donald Williams was one year behind, but like Montross, had his career year in 1993 and never played as well after that. I think it was Reese’s best year as well.
Beyond that, remember that those guys from 1991 came in as the highest touted recruiting class in UNC history. I think Phelps and Williams had good careers in Europe. Montross got hurt, while Reese and Sullivan were mild disappointments.
So, even though the 1993 team might not have had players of the highest caliber, unfortunately, all of our other titles during the Smith and Williams eras have occurred when our team had a core of three or four extremely talented guys as opposed to eight or nine good or very good ones.
And yes, the first time I saw Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough I knew they were amazing. One was the fastest player I had ever seen and the other played harder than any player I had ever seen. Vince Carter jumped higher than any guy I had ever seen, except for maybe David Thompson. I know plenty of guys like Hubert Davis can really make amazing strides but Hubert still was not in the same class as Carter or Lawson or Hansbrough.
It is what it is, but the Barnes signing looks a whole lot more significant to me today than it did last week.
Thanks, Marcus.
Admittedly, I tend to focus (maybe overly so) on the positives I see. I certainly respect other people’s views and hope my somewhat “rose-colored” rebuttals are not taken as anything more than good natured debate.
No two teams are alike and I am not making any negative predictions because, as Vitale reminded us, MSU looked pretty sick against UNC early last year and then made it to the title game, where they looked pretty bad again, lol, so yes, teams improved and also certain teams may have certain other teams’ numbers in terms of style.
Phelps was a quality PG by any measure, but Lawson moves into a different category as a play-maker. I seriously doubt Phelps could’ve taken over the offensive scoring at the ending of either FSU or Miami last season, both key road wins (espeically Miami who basically matched everything UNC/Lawson could do). No one else did much offensively in the 2nd half at Miami, i want to recall.
I’ll take another ‘Twan Jamison anytime one wishes to show up. Carter was athletic / gifted, but his defense was not good until his junior season.
C.Michael –
The more I think about it, the main thing we need is more mental and physical toughness. We have the height, depth, overall talent and coaching. What killed us last night was our becomeing flustered on offense and unable on defense to keep the Syracuse guys away from the basket (along with their getting hot from outside).
I agree that Hansbrough was unique. As you might have seen, I basically thought he walked on water. I don’t expect the Wears to be the same, but they have tremendous potential. They are not especially inside players, but I suspect that is partly because they don’t have the strength or bulk it takes. As you point out, they have the same basic build as TH, so they can get strong the way he did — by hours and hours in the weight room (plus pulling SUV’s for summer “vacation”). If and when they put on 25 pounds of muscle, they’ll be more comfortable on the inside and better able to manuever there.
In addition, we need to think about who will be on the inside next year. Deon graduates. Davis is at least 50-50 to go into the draft. Henson is more than a year away from having inside strength, and his game is not geared to the inside in any event. We have no big men coming in. In other words, Zeller is our only sure inside player next year, and for all the weight he’s put on, he’s still spindly.
I’m surprised I like the Wears as much as I do. I’m always suspicious of twins. But what I’m seeing out there makes me pretty enthusiastic about them. They’re poised, they play within themselves, and they have good floor sense. That is an EXTREMELY good start for a freshman. Put on some muscle and it will be even better.
“I’m always suspicious of twins.”
Uh oh… was some the victim of the old switch-a-roo???
I like the Wear’s game a lot, too. Despite their skills on the perimeter, I have little doubt that they can be effective down low, especially after a year with Jonas. I believe Nick Collison had a similar development, as well. I also think that as this team becomes more comfortable and starts playing faster, it will open the floor up more, which should negate some of the advantage stronger teams will have.
It is also kind of ironic that the last 2-3 years, there was always a lot of talk that as good as UNC was, they were susceptible to “long, athletic” teams. Now UNC is long and athletic, and they are susceptible to the burlier teams…
I would like to say while the 2005-2006 team was special, I expected this season to be a repeat. Why? Because we were bringing in a top 5 prospect in all positions in John Henson, and Strickland was a highly rated player as well. William, I completely agree with your posts. I also think we may have missed out with these recruits. In the case of Danny Green and Bobby Frasor, they both came in and from day 1, you could see their comfort in handling the ball and willingness to drive the ball in the paint and score. What we are missing right now are the Ellington, McCants, Carter, and Brian Reese types. Those guys can handle the ball and know how to crack a zone defense by driving into the lane and finishing, or pulling up for a 10 foot jumper (as they had the ability to shoot over the defense, or be athletic and limber enough to make difficult moves seem easy). This class has not brought us those types of players. I am sure we thought during the recruiting process that Strickland would be capable of doing these things, and while very tall, that John Henson would be capable of doing the same. We have NO ONE that can eagerly attack the glass with a athletic move, or create their own shot. The best we can hope for (outside of future development) is that we can learn to really pass the ball well, and find open shooters. But folks, lets be real, this team needs to have that athletic guy that can create havoc for a defense by being a threat to shoot, drive it to the hole, make difficult turn-around jumpers, or stop & pop a quick pull-up. McCants, Carter, Jamison, Stackhouse, and Ellington were all really good at that. Most teams can guard our offense now.
For further example of what I was talking about, go back and visit our stomping of Duke in 98. Watch what Jamison and Carter were doing. That is my case-in-point. We need that! Its not that we need all-stars, just someone who can break a defense down like they could.
to borrow a well-worn phrase: DFG isn’t walking through that door, Frasor isn’t walking through that door, and neither is Carter, Montross or Phelps.
This is our Tar Heel squad, this season. And after 4 games, I’d hate to be the 18-19 yo recruit whose game is already being broken down by MMQB. Come on, seriously, the season is 4 games old. FOUR GAMES. I’m diehard UNC hoops, as most here are / have been.
One game, one bad half even, does not a season make. I’m expecting players to step up, it just may not evidence itself just yet. Syracuse is perhaps the worst example when it comes to an opposing team’s strategy, ie, 2-3 zone; their longer players stay on the corners, where good looks from outside vanish quickly and typically UNC can/could shoot over such a zone.
I must beg yer pardon on this one
“I also think we may have missed out with these recruits”
The coaching staff with rings from 2005 and 2009 that say “national champion” must think otherwise. I, for one, am glad that they do.
I agree, Tx. There is just no way one can tell what you have with a freshman after 5 games; it’s just not true. Yes, we all seem to remember that the names mentioned stepped on to campus and immediately revealed a grandiose future, but the truth of the matter is that a lot of that is colored by our knowledge of what they actually became. Hindsight is 20/20, foresight is blind. Aside from Hansbrough, Jamison, and maybe Brandon Wright, very few freshmen have come in and shown exactly what they were. I know for a fact that there were a lot of people wondering if Frasor, Green, Lawson, and Ellington were, like this class, possibly overrated.
IMO, until the rotation becomes more settled and the players get more comfortable with the system, it is a mistake to make any judgments about the freshmen class. A lot of people assume that UNC/Duke recruits are automatically overrated, but evidence against that would be to look at the transfers: Williams, Boateng, King, and Boykin all showed significant game upon leaving Duke, and Alex has a lot of people talking that he will be the best big in the Pac-10.
Yeah, but you guys are beating the proverbial strawman. J. Bowling didn’t say he was giving up and neither did anyone else.
There is nothing wrong with anyone saying that they are disappointed with what they see out there on the floor so far. There is also nothing wrong with stating the obvious, which is that UNC generally has been more successful when they have great medium-sized wingmen. You can look it up: Walter Davis was one, McCants was another and Ellington was a third. You guys may be able to think of others.
I am disappointed with the apparent ballhandling skills at this juncture but that hardly means I am not going to continue to root. I knew we would have problems at point and from outside, but I expected to see much more athleticism than I have seen so far. Even in 2006, we had Terry, and maybe Green. It is what it is. We all know how hard recruiting is, especially the season after winning it all, as well as the decision between going after a great one season guy versus a very good four season guy.
I don’t think we have to worry about anybody going pro next year early unless Ed starts playing like Bill Russell a bit more.
OK TX. I will conform to your way of thinking. We just missed out on ones with immediate impact. Better?
William, I am completely with you on the train of thought. My statements in my recent posts were observations of what I have seen. Did I say we were heading for an 8-20 season, no. And the comment I made about missing out on recruits is real subjective. I didn’t say we just recruited 5 Makhtar’s. Geez, observation and articulation doesn’t mean I am bashing our squad. Based on HS games, you could see the ability in the High School format that Strickland and Henson could really dribble the ball, pressure a defense, and shoot over the defense. So far, that has not taken place. And that is just what we need as of now. Would have I recruited the same players? Of course. Given the current performances, I can’t say I’d blame someone if they said we needed an athletic wingman either. Whomever it was that compared my observations to that of the coaching staff made a rediculous statememt. Do I think I am better than they are? Again, of course not. Next time you make a post I don’t agree with (if you ever do btw), I’ll just say who do you think you are? Roy Williams? Just a rediculous comment to make. For your information, I doubt anyone on this board really thinks they should be out there crotiquing & recruiting HS basketball players instead of commenting on here. But on the other hand, a lot of great coaches do not get the type of kids that fit their style of play. Maybe that is the case with us. By saying that, I guess going forward I should caveat that with “I am also not the coach”. But I am not going to beat the point, just too many good things going, and I am sure there is a whole lot more we agree on than don’t, and I am really not wanting to create bad relationships with my fellow UNC fanatics. Sorry if I hurt your feelings.
I’m with william and jbowling, pretty much, based on what I’ve seen (OSU and Syracuse)–I think players fitting the system is the big question, and obviously they know far more about it than we do–nevertheless, it’s hard for me to see the super-uptempo Carolina offense working with the guys we have. I agree COMPLETELY with the guy upthread who said right now our big men look like Duke big men: 6′10″ jumpshooters………We’ve got this much size, it’ll give us big advantages and big disadvantages. By the end of the year, Zeller and Davis should be monsters in the post, right? Right?
I propose that we cease with the “who are you to dare question Roy” rebuttals this year. They really are tiresome and boring and for those of you who actually are UNC grads, that is a form of argumentum ad hominem and is just about the weakest form of argument in existence, barely above just slinging explicatives or calling someone an idiot.
I also propose that we cease with the name calling involving deriding anyone we disagree with as an unloyal fan. If you have a point, make it. Anyone’s relative level of passion is irrelevant. I can tell you that I generally lose some enthusiasm after winning a national championship in terms of the pure desire to win-I see it as being less greedy than others; what I don’t lose is my passion for well played basketball.
These are kids and for me they are fellow future alumni. I try to maintain a proper respect in my critiques. I may fail at this sometimes. I think expressing mild disappointment shows the high regard I have for these players’ reputations. No one has said, “gee, I wish so and so had never matriculated at UNC”.
Let me add, that I was negative about an “angry Roy” article last week, which paradoxically a lot of people seem to enjoy. I guess because theoretically Roy is the one who is criticizing the players, that makes it okay, but it does seem to show that some of the observations being made here are not being flung from left field but do have some basis behind them.
Judgments should be made with better hindsight to make those judgments. A few more outings, a few more practices…what I am seeking is the same / very similar to anyone on this board. The best possible unit(s) playing high-level ACC basketball. One loss to Syracuse, big whoop. Come January we will have a much deeper understanding of the steps still needing to be made.
My feelings don’t matter, nor are they hurt. For someone else to write we may have missed out on these recruits…how should that phrasing be read exactly. I would certainly like to know if it is misread. I certainly concur that the learning curve appears steeper for a few newbies, and our back-court needs much work on TCOB (take care of ball).
Additionally, and on scout’s honor, I will not pull the “coaches know stuff” or “national champion” lines again. Unless the occasion really, really screams out for doing so.
For the record, I have zero wins to my name.
You are reminding me of a common human trait that we all engage in. You are interpreting his vague statement about “missing out” in the worse manner possible. I think his point was only that the Carolina basketball salad may have needed a few more onions, not that we need to throw out all the carrots, lettuce and tomato.
I do think Duke’s recruiting classes have been disappointing since Deng left. I also disagree with the extent of the success of the Duke transferees. None of them, with the possible exception of the point guard from the 91 team who went to Vanderbilt have ever become big stars and I doubt any are in the NBA.
I am not a guy who follows recruiting the way a lot of you do–remember J.R. Smith–I wait till they get here so I can accept the refutation that someone may have seen these guys and they are every bit as good as advertised. Either way, they are Tar Heels now. My main point was that I thought we had a top five class coming in this year and I really expected maybe more speed and athleticism. We definitely have height and I knew that, but maybe someone might have expected more bangers like Tyler or leapers like I assume Barnes might be.
I think at the time the 2005 class was underrated. Hansbrough wasn’t supposed to be as good as McRoberts. Ginyard and Green struggled and Frasor, while having his best year, certainly was no Ray Felton. I really thought we desperatedly needed the fifth kid we didn’t get, who ended up at FSU after almost coming. If you look at it now, Hansbrough greatly overachieved, as did Green, with Frasor and Ginyard being hampered by injuries, but still being really quality role players and sometime starters. Maybe Kansas or somebody ended up having a better recruiting year in 2005, but there won’t be many classes like the class of 2009 at UNC, especially since all of them stayed four or five years.
So….. These guys have a lot to live up to.
I think part of the reason for the apparent lack of athleticism is the fact that the two most athletic players are, at this point, still trying to find (or learn) a position.
Dexter Strickland was a wing-guard in HS (Kyrie Irving was his PG). Being in the NE, I got to watch a lot of him and I can assure you that he is an ELITE athlete. We are talking about a kid who can run and jump with anyone. The problem is, he is being asked to play a position that is nearly completely foreign to him, and as such, he is not as free to play the game that come naturally to him. Next year, with the addition of Kendall Marshall, Strickland will be free to play SG and his game should be unshackled.
The same is true of Henson. All we’ve ever heard about him is that he is a freak athlete, he just hasn’t been able to demonstrate it yet. I suspect that as the season progresses, Henson will start to usurp playing time from Graves and we will be progressively awed with what he can do. If I had to guess, Roy is doing the same thing with Henson as he tried to do with Lawson, whereby Frasor began the season as the starter and Lawson had to work his way into the lineup; it just happened that Bobby got hurt and sped the process up.
“Let me add, that I was negative about an “angry Roy” article last week, which paradoxically a lot of people seem to enjoy. I guess because theoretically Roy is the one who is criticizing the players, that makes it okay, but it does seem to show that some of the observations being made here are not being flung from left field but do have some basis behind them.”
Interestingly, the postgame on Friday night, Roy took the approach that (1) Syracuse was pretty good and (2) They simply need to get better. No questioning of effort. No calling anyone out for the way they played. Just we have a young team that needs to get better.
As for criticizing the coach. I think it is allowable but I think such criticisms have to be couched, backed up with data and offered with the usual disclaimers. I think the toughest ones to make are the “Roy should play X instead of Y” based solely on play on the court and without seeing practice. Criticizing strategies and game decisions are fair game mainly because that is ultimately a matter of opinion. I do think Roy’s accomplishments give him a lot of leeway that NCSU fans cannot and probably should not give to Sidney Lowe. It is a fine line and yes, responding to a criticism of the coach by saying, “he knows more than us” is probably a cop out.
CM,
Henson looks lost out there. I think some of his issues are just knowing the offense and knowing his role/position. He strikes me as out of sorts. You are right I think Graves will see less time in favor of Henson. Of course if you asked me right now I would reduce Graves time in favor of Travis Wear. Of course I have nothing to back that up but I just think ultimately Travis and David are better players.
Tx, thanks for your comments. I really didn’t mean for what I said (I know I said it though) to be taken as these kids aren’t worth a darn. But you are not to blame for it to be taken that way. I have enjoyed a lot of your posts and pretty much agree with everything you have ever said in regards to UNC basketball.
William, thanks for articulating what I was trying to say better than I did.
I also think it may be a function of limited playing time. I’ve always felt that when someone is only getting a few minutes a game, it can lead to a tendency to press. When you know you are going to play 20-25 minutes, you become less nervous about making a mistake here and there. We saw some of this when Danny Green’s minutes decreased in his sophomore year and he seemed to regress a bit, only to bounce back in splendid fashion when his minutes became more plentiful.
The basic issue that I see at this point is a general lack of maturity and an uncertain way that most of the players are approaching offense. Passing the ball endlessly, taking the wrong shot, not being strong with the ball, little confidence.
Marcus Ginyard tried to show them in the second half about playing strong. It was easy to see the Syracuse guys give him room, because they respected his space, strength, etc. Zeller and Thompson were watching, I hope.
The Wears are thinking players, who clearly know what to do, even coming into the game. Henson is too used to dominating with his size and quickness, and he doesn’t get the offense yet. These issues are all going to get better. Lots of it is psychological.
But it is obvious that a great big old hole hasn’t yet been filled in the paint!
It would also be great to see the team run more. That is what they were brought in for. As they get more comfortable playing together, I would rather see fast break turnovers than trying to make too many interior passes.
“The Wears are thinking players”. I have to agree. I noticed their decision making/shot selection looked well, and as advertised coming in. Their jump shot looks pure, and I hope they get a little more comfortable in dribble penetration.
What I do give them credit for is this. I watched, several times, when they had the ball and were being trapped and stuck in a corner, they didn’t rush a bad pass. Instead, they did a little head fake, and little shake, and the defenders looked like they couldn’t tell what they were going to do. Duke, to me, is great at this. They get the ball and do as much faking as they possibly can on each touch. Ie, head fakes, dribble-drive fakes, shot fakes. The Wears are going to be good players, and this aspect of them will enable themselves to find room because defenders will not know what they are going to do-and that’s because they are a capable threat to do all of those things.
I have to admit that I also like the Wears because they remind me of mini Hansbroughs.
I first wasn’t wowed by their athleticism, but some of David Wear’s post game comments are pretty insightful. They both are very skilled at both ends. I could see David Wear moving into a small forward role consistently. Or is it Travis?
LOL!
I think that one of the things that makes this site fun is that it walks the fine line of being provocative while still being pro-UNC without delving into the name calling and mindlessness of the for profit sites, or the toadyism of the official sites.
I don’t think anyone here named any particular players as being “the problem.” We all know Roy Williams knows more about college basketball than we do. Bobby Fischer knew more about chess than anyone in the world and yet, he did lose games to Boris Spasky, which means he made wrong moves. So, as sports fans we are always in the realm of analyzing things done by people with more training than we have. That is the nature of the beast.
The day people don’t think it is acceptable to question the decision by a manager to leave his starter in or to go for it on fourth down, is the day that sports dies. When people quit critiquing, it generally means they no longer care.
It doesn’t matter what the coach knows or doesn’t know. What is cool about college basketball, especially at a school like UNC is that every year is very different, even with the same players.
This team is of course radically different than last year.
So I don’t see commenting as evil or an attempt to unseat anyone. Rather it is fun to speculate about what is happening. JB and I were making a couple of Wear comments.
The Wears are interesting to me partially because they were not annointed as strong players, and even though I cannot tell them apart it has been (and will remain) fun to watch them and read their comments as well.
I have twins and apparently there are three different types of twins, identical, fraternal and almost identical, but what are the Wears? They look pretty similar but not identical, but some of that might be due to hair length. I remember the twins at Stanford who said that doctors never could determine if they were identical or not. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half_twin
Jonas calls them dumb and dumber. Of course he is kidding.
There is a little video on the UNC site http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/inside/roywilliams/ under special features which has the players and coaches admitting they cannot tell them apart either. The coaches joke about forgetting who has which number.
It is going to be fun with these cats. You know David & Travis have to get tired of it though, but you have to expect it being nearly the same size & identical looks as each other.
From the tenor of some of these posts you would think the season was over. We got smoked by a good team that is playing well. We responded poorly to their run. We still have a very good team that will win many games. It will also likely get hammered a couple of more times and will likely gag up a couple of close games with turnovers or missed free throws. Folks, it’s probably a 10 loss season and a 2 or lower seed in the NCAA. It’s also likely to be a team that starts getting it in January and that becomes very dangerous late. We’re all spoiled. Sit back and enjoy a team that will ultimately be fun to watch.
Well, I burned my tape of the game as soon as it ended, but really we are not talking about simply not responding to a run. UNC basically went the first ten minutes of the second half without making a field goal. Furthermore, it wasn’t one of those cases of decent shots not going in, most of the shots were either poor decisions to begin with or didn’t even come close to going in. The Heels seemed unable to figure out how to space themselves on the floor or to pass around the zone.
Obviously the season is not over and not one single person on here said it was. Syracuse is usually decent but they were not supposed to be especially good this year. Nobody knows yet. I seem to recall the 2005 title team losing to Santa Clara in their first game and Santa Clara was no good at all.
In up years like 2005 and 2008 and 2009, UNC won regular season titles without worrying about the level of competition in the ACC. In 2006 and 2007 and probably this year, to win 11 or 12 games in conference is probably going to be fairly taxing and I think expectations may be unfairly high. Wes Miller was huge from outside in 2006, as was Terry and Green, and David Noel was decent as well when the team need a three pointer.
I don’t know if this squad will have anybody shooting from outside in the same league as Miller and Terry who shot over 44 percent and 38 percent respectively from three point range. It is also too early to tell what the results of the unbalanced schedule will be but we all know that can make a two or three game difference during the regular season conference play in terms of record.
I also doubt we will see any newcomer as good as Hansbrough was that year. That is not a knock–that is simply reality. Wes Miller finished second in the country in offensive rating, actually ahead of Hansbrough. Reyshawn Terry and David Noel were both excellent players.
Roy has basically started anew twice before with a new crew at UNC and this will make the third time. His results in 2004 were fairly pedestrian, although the team did lose a slew of close games, so some of it could have been bad luck.
His results in 2006, to me, at least, were shockingly good and maybe the best coaching job that I have ever seen at UNC, although I think the unbalanced schedule seemed to go UNC’s way that year.
As an aside, this pattern of lucky/unlucky has been an interesting sideline during Roy’s UNC tenure: In 2004, 2007 and 2009 UNC lost many close games they could just as easily have won. In 2006 and 2008, UNC seemed to win a lot of the close ones, either in overtime or on clutch last second shots by the likes of Wes Miller. The 2005 team seemed a bit more neutral in terms of its luck, aside from not having Felton and McCants healthy at times.
In terms of sitting back and enjoying the ride, I mean sure, no one is talking about boycotting the season. I highly doubt this squad can match the 2005 or 2007-9 squads in terms of being fun to watch. They certainly seem to have the ability to meet or exceed what the 2006 team did, which is why people do expect more. But many people come to this site because they love to talk strategy and techniques and how teams can improve or to discuss some of the interesting developments in how Williams uses his players. I don’t want to passively sit back and watch. To me, the fact that people are engaged is what makes it interesting.
Nevertheless, it was basically a blow-out. UNC hit a couple of junk shots at the end to bring the margin down from 21 points. Carolina doesn’t usually lose games by 21 points to anybody and yes, I can remember a few, a couple against Duke and a couple against Maryland and Wake Forest, but once again scores can be somewhat deceptive.
When Carolina lost to Wake Forest by 25 or so in 1993, Wake hit five or six three pointers in a row in the second half, I believe. Nothing like that happened here. UNC simply could not move the ball and position itself to get a decent shot for the first 9 minutes of the second half and surprisingly, with all that height, couldn’t even get a tap-in or follow.
There is no point in whitewashing it. That was almost certainly the worst ten minutes of basketball of Roy’s tenure at UNC. The team looked disorganized and chaotic.
I didn’t see the Valpo game but it didn’t sound as though the effort was particularly distinguished at the end of that game either and obviously, the second half against OSU was very poor. That makes three very lackluster second half performances in a row. I can’t imagine they are getting tired. Hopefully it is just a fluke.
I do think we are looking at a squad with some similar talents and weaknesses, but in 2006, Carolina had Hansbrough, Terry and Miller as go to guys who could all score. Somebody is going to have to step up on this year’s team and fulfill that role. I would have thought it would be Zeller and Davis and perhaps Ginyard, but that remains to be seen.
If I had to predict based upon what I have seen so far, I would say that we might end up with about the same record as UNC did in 2006, although with probably more losses in conference and overall, since that team only played 31 games. That was probably the worst team that Roy has had at UNC, going out in the second round, after languid performances against Murray State and GMU.
The 2004 team was just as unimpressive in the post-season and had a somewhat worse record, but had to play a balanced schedule and lost three games in overtime, plus three nail-biters and four games overall to Duke and GIT, both of whom made it to the Final Four, as well as fluky losses versus Clemson and Florida State, where they lost a twenty-something point lead(add that to the list of Roy’s bad halves).
Everyone take a deep breath and step away from the ledge.
Questioning whether a freshman is overrated after 5 games is absurd. And acting like that at this point of the season in 2006 every Carolina fan knew they were watching a team that would finish 2nd in the ACC is just not true. Plus, pretending that Frasor was a ball handling wiz his freshman year and the 2006 team never got flogged in public is even more BS.
This team has already played a schedule that is 10X the schedule the 2006 team played, and has faired rather well except for a 10min stretch against Syracuse where they went brain dead. Also, look at the minimum practice time that this team has had up to this point. This year’s team has already played 5 games (soon to be 6), and by comparison last year’s experienced team had only played 2 games. Wait until January before you make your judgments.
Also, before you question the freshman class, go back and look at tapes of the 1996 team and you will see a lost Vince Carter on the court at this point of November. You can’t evaluate the prospects of John Henson when he only sees 9min of PT a night wait until he finds his niche and understands what is expected of him to earn more PT then you can make a proper evaluation.
I don’t think there is any basis for the statement that this year’s team has played a harder schedule so far. Maybe you are emailing from a phone or something, but it is not that hard to compare the first five games of the 2006 and 2010 seasons. Pomeroy has it. Obviously this season has just started but any fair evaluation would have to give the edge to the 2006 team.
Both teams started out 4-1. Both teams started out with three creampuffs, although the creampuffs in 2006 were marginally harder. Gardner-Webb was a tough win, but it also was a local rival that had something to prove to the in-state goliath. This year’s Valpo result wasn’t much more impressive.
Aside from that, this year’s team beat OSU on a neutral court and lost to Syracuse on a semi-neutral court badly.
The 2006 team lost to a very good Illinois team at home in a close game and then beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena. Both of those opponents(actually UNC as well) made it to the second round of the NCAA tourney that year.
So no, absolutely not. The current team has not played a schedule that is ten times harder. At best they have played an equivalent one. It may be true that the earlier season start is having an effect here, provided that the NCAA did not push back the legal practice date as well. That point could be valid but we are still only talking about ten days.
Finally, to my knowledge, no one on here has questioned any freshman as being overrated. People have questioned whether the class as a whole might be overrated and whether the team as a whole might be overrated. Analysts and fans do that at every juncture of the season, and before and after. If you have a problem with that, then you probably have a problem with polls in general and the ranking of recruiting classes, but that is an issue of your own.
Vince Carter had otherworldly skills from the first day he stepped on the court at UNC and it was apparent whenever he was on the court. He might have had defensive issues, which was often the reason Smith held players back, but using Vince Carter as an example here doesn’t cut it. There might be a better one, but you always have the other example of Curtis Hunter, who was a great guy and Tar Heel but never came close to being the second Michael Jordan, and some people might have felt that way about Brian Reese.
But I will agree that it is way too early to make good judgments about freshmen in terms of their future, and things can work both ways. Bobby Frasor was probably the second most important member of his class in 2006 but certainly due to injuries and/or failure to improve, was only the fourth most important player from his class during the 2008 season when all four clocked a season.
Hard to say at this point because Pomeroy’s rankings are a mess since there is not enough data. The 2006 team had an overall SOS of 24th and a non-conference SOS of 113th. This is something we should revisit in January when the rankings are a little clearer and UNC has finished the non-conference slate. I will say this that in 2006 UNC played four top 100 schools: Ill, UK, USC and Arizona. At the end of the season Pomeroy had those teams ranked: 11th, 20th, 90th and 21st respectively. UNC played four teams ranked 100-200: UCSB(161), StL(127), Santa Clara(151) and Davidson(132). The rest of the non-conf slate was below 200+ in the rankings.
So far this season UNC has played two teams in the top 100 and by season’s end both of those will easily be top 50 in all likelihood. UNC still has MSU, UK and Texas all of which could make the Final Four. There is also GW, Nevada, Rutgers and a road game at College of Charleston. Like I said we will see how it bears out but I think when we get to January and look back we will find this to be a tougher schedule than 2006. Probably not ten times worse but I think it will end up being tougher.
I think the 10 days matters some. Not sure how much but when you are dealing with new players and players in new roles, every bit of practice you can squeeze is bound to help. Plus UNC is having five ranked teams dropped on them in a short span. That is a hard thing to do for any team, especially a young one.
That is all true, but we aren’t there yet in terms of the distinction between schedules. The fact that the future schedule probably will be harder doesn’t change the relative difficulty of the first five games which seem to be roughly equivalent.
And yes, Pomeroy’s system is still a month away from decent reliability, but we do basically know that Illinois, Kentucky, OSU and Syracuse have all been Final 8/Final Four programs during this decade and are generally tough games.
To me, evaluating the relative merits of Roy’s reloads in 2006 and 2010 certainly will have to come after the season. He certainly has placed himself in a situation where the expectations are much higher this time, whether fair or not.
Roy’s 2006 season, to me, ranks with Dean Smith’s 1971 and 1977 seasons, and Frank Mcguire’s 1957 season as the greatest coaching jobs in school history.
One difference may be that this year Roy has Zeller, Davis and Ginyard back which sounds like three fifths of a fairly good and highly recruited team, plus all the new guys. In 2006, Terry and Noel were probably equally good but flew in under the radar. Wes Miller was unbelievable too, but the basic story was that Roy and the freshman had to take over. 2006 really wasn’t a Michigan Fab Five kind of team in reality, though. The two juniors and the senior Noel bore a heavy load.
So, I think that I and others are merely talking about what we have seen in the first five games. 4-1 is not a terrible record, but I think the Heels have had real problems in all three second halves after the first two cupcakes.
And really, I doubt anyone here is saying that they expected to do nearly as well in 2006. I was shocked that they beat UK at Rupp. I did think they would beat USC, but that was a Christmas West Coast road game which is always tough.
But I distinctly remember being prepared to lose to NC State and was simply shocked when we beat them, even at home. For me, things starting getting really interesting after the State win. We also took out Arizona at home and and annihilated Maryland and Virginia and beat Duke on senior day. BC seemed to have our number, though, and the post-season performances against BC, Murray State and GMU were not inspired. So they peaked too early. Maybe the current crop will peak later.