Where: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
When: Saturday, November 14th, 3:30 PM
TV: ABC
Records: UNC 6-3, 2-3 ACC; Miami 7-2, 4-2 ACC
Focus people! There is still football to be played!
UNC hosts Miami and with it we get gratuitous helpings off Butch Davis vs his old team, blah, blah, blah. Davis is 2-0 versus Miami, winning last season when Trimane Goddard stole the ball from a Miami WR in the end zone to conclude the game. UNC needs but one win to reach bowl eligibility for the 2nd straight season. Miami is hoping to stay alive in the Coastal(something that will be decided during the noon Georgia Tech-Duke game) and keep a remote shot at a BCS Bowl game as the ACC’s 2nd representative.
UNC comes into this came riding a hot defense. The word in the preseason is the defense would be good and that has been true for most of the first half of the season save the 2nd half of the FSU game. Against Virginia Tech and Duke, that defense stepped it up to another. UNC held the Hokies to just 95 yards rushing and Duke to 113 yards passing. Miami has the 46th ranked offense in the country which means there is an opportunity to really shutdown the Hurricanes in this game, especially their running game which is only ranked 75th. Miami QB Jacory Harris is talented throwing 18 TDs so far this season but also mistake prone as indicated by his 12 INTs. Given UNC’s offensive woes and the fact the running game took a major hit when Shaun Draughn went out, holding Miami to as few points as possible is paramount. While that is generally sound advice in football, it is even more so for an offense that cannot be relied upon to score enough points.
Speaking of the offense. Ryan Houston will be the primary running back, we know this much. Anthony Elzy has been tabbed to picked up the rest of the carries in relief of Houston. What will that look like? I have no idea but Elzy is one player who has the talent to do more than he has shown so far this season. Perhaps this will be his chance to shine. Recently, UNC has relied on various gadget looks, misdirection plays and handoffs to WRs for runs around the ends. Duke did a decent job of snuffing some of those out leading John Shoop to just run Houston up the middle smashmouth style. Miami has plenty of speed on defense so it will be interesting to see what UNC can reasonably get by with running the football. Miami has a fairly average pass defense with only six INTs on the year. If T.J. Yates can muster some accuracy, the Heels might find some yards passing the football but I am not holding my breath on that one.
This is not necessarily a must win for UNC. There are still two winnable games left. However, given all the crap this team has been through, getting to eight or possibly nine wins, would be nothing short of a miracle. Roy Williams set the tone for the weekend and it would be nice to see Butch Davis continue it by extending his win streak of Miami.
UNC 21 Miami 20
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Miami’s offense is a lot better than 46th, because yards per game is no more reliable a measure of offensive efficiency than points scored per game is in basketball (neither addresses how many plays/possessions the team got to use to reach that number of yards/points). Miami’s offense is ranked 8th in the country in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (a rating that is drive-based, not play-based, removes garbage plays like kneel-downs, and is adjusted for Strength of Schedule — it’s roughly a equivalent of the Sagarin ratings in college basketball), meaning that they’re clearly an elite offensive team (and not just a top-third-of-the-NCAA offensive team). Combine that stat with Miami’s 16th-ranked defensive FEI, and it means we’ve got a fight on our hands this afternoon. Luckily for us, though, Miami does not play nearly as well on the road as they do at home, so it’s still very much a winnable game for the Heels.
FYI, the Heels are ranked 21st in overall FEI (#73 offense, #5 defense). You can find the full FEI ratings for all 120 Division I-A teams here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/statistics/fei-ratings/2009
I would like to think the successful “week” started out with UNC football team beating dook. Then the new UNC Basketball team really showed off it’s freshmen talent against NC Central. Then much awaited LOI from Marshall and Bullock. Then the Barnes Sweepstakes. Let’s wrap this joyous week up with an emphatic win over the Canes to show that the VT win was not a fluke.
may have just seen THE worst official review. State defender pulls the ball away from Spiller, and when its finally reviewed, they come back with Spiller being down.
now only was he NOT down, it wasnt close. it wasnt look for some space between his knee and the ground, or his arm and the ground, or is he on top of someone and not down. he was NOT down. in any way shape or form.
that was possibly ballgame for State, who had just scored to start the half.
looks like Dook will have to beat Miami AND Wake now to see a bowl game.
rough week for Dookies.
tissue, anyone?
anyone?
no?
4 passes, all significantly off target, 1 caught with one hand by Pianalto.
Yates continues to pull off being impossibly inaccurate.
HUGE to have the D score there. 3 turnovers, you have to make them pay. nice to be facing a qb with less than great judgment.
We are just plain aweful in the red zone. We can’t just keep settling for field goals. Ok, keeping my fingers crossed and hoping that the defense can keep overcoming the lack of contribution from the offense…
4th and 10 and five guys surround but dont cover the receiver. FIVE. FIVE freakin guys. every few plays, its shades of last year. 3rd and 21? no problem, we’ll give you 22. ugh.
this has FSU game written all over it. please tell me they learned something.
well, THAT was bizarre.
Thank goodness for our absolutely AWESOME defense.
wow. some bad plays on D, probably from fatigue. but just enough. and Houston and the O-line cranked it up RIGHT when it was needed.
bowl eligible. inconceivable a few weeks ago.
and State isnt and won’t be. and Dook will be hard pressed to be.
^Just beat State and win whatever bowl they go to and we can consider this season officially salvaged.
Okay, here is a question for all of you THF readers… 4th and 1 on the Miami 15 with 2:01 on the clock and Miami out of time outs. Do you kick the field goal to go up 9 and give Miami the ball. Or do you go for the first down, get it and run out the clock?
Conventional wisdom and the conservative call is to kick the field goal which Butch Davis did. But, with Ryan Houston in the backfield and memories of UVa last year and FSU this year in my head, I say go for it, get the yard and run out the clock…That way you don’t let the “prevent” defense out on the field.
What do you guys say???
i’m good with just beating State. at this point, dont lose to them.
what a week. beat Dook. steal Dook’s blue-chipper. become bowl-eligible.
hard to think of a better week other than those Nattys, of course.
This win is pretty much straight out of the books of the 2008 Heels. All you have to do is look at the box score — our vaunted D gave up a ton of yards (438 on an average of 5.8 per play), but managed to make up for it with a ton of turnovers (which led to both free points for us and took away points that Miami was going to score). That’s pretty much the script we followed for a number of our wins last year (the Notre Dame game in Chapel Hill, for example), and while I didn’t expect to see it again today (since the D had, up to this point, mostly evolved into a “give you no yards” type of unit), I’ll take the win.
Everybody should remember to thank Jacory Harris, though. Without his “risks be damned” chucks downfield, we wouldn’t have been in position to win this game. Our offense played well, considering its limitations, but without those 14 points off turnovers, we’d have had to wait till next week for a shot at bowl eligibility.
^^UNC’s defense is good enough to prevent two scores in two minutes from a team with no timeouts left… no matter how bad the coaches can be at times. So, they made the right call in my opinion.
chuckheel:
Kicking the field goal was the right play. Had our lead been 7 point and not 6, then you go for it on fourth down. But since Miami has demonstrated that they can still stop Houston for a loss at that late juncture of the game (they did just that on a run two plays prior to the FG attempt, IIRC), you’re taking too much of a risk trying to get the first down in that situation. Should you not get the first down, you’re leaving Miami far too much time to come down the field, score a touchdown, and win the game. And they’re perfectly capable of doing that, as we saw moments later when they went right into the red zone in a hurry (and if they hadn’t had time constraints and play constraints — they could not run because they were down two scores and had no timeouts — they probably would’ve scored on our tired defense). With a 9 point lead following the field goal, you’re stacking the odds against Miami — not only do they have to score a touchdown in a hurry-up mode with no timeouts, but they also have to secure an onside kick to have any chance of winning the game. Any coach would take that instead of trying to go for the first down and running the clock out — the risk just exceeds the potential reward there.
Since I’m in a spiteful mood (shocking, I know…) can someone please confirm for me whether this is correct: State is 4-6 overall, but two of their wins were over Div 2 schools, so they only get to count one of those wins towards bowl eligibility, which means, from an eligibility perspective they are 3-6, with only 2 games remaining … thus they are mathematically eliminated from the post season. Is that correct?
Yes, N.C. State was mathematically eliminated from bowl eligibility with their loss to Clemson earlier today.
This is the best week for Tar Heel fans since the first week of April!
Butch *owns* his former team! The coaching staff is doing wonders with the squad. The team itself didn’t give up on their season, and it’s great to see the positive results.
At this rate, UNC is going to play a bowl game somewhere higher up on the scale than Charlotte.
^^What a great week this has been
Incredible to be a Tar Heel this week and our football team just did had a magnificent win on ABC on Saturday afternoon primetime. Let’s just say this doesn’t hurt recruiting
Jonathon has it right that this win was out of last year’s recipe for winning games. I listened on the way home to Butch talk about how the O-line really stepped up on that last drive, so I hope the program is moving forward to the day that it doesn’t take 4 INT (2 for touchdowns) to win a game over a quality opponent. I have to hand it to the coaches for winning 7 games with a QB who is certainly mentioned in the same schizophrenic breath as Jake Delhomme.
While I’m talking offense, I really thought Elzy was going to be used more today, but hats off to Devon Ramsey who came through and J Boyd who made big plays as well. Did I mention Barth? Excellent.
The D was very tired during the 4th quarter and they played their hearts out.
The bowl eligibility is just great for the program. I hope the guys are able to focus knowing each win takes them to a much better locale!
Just a solid effort today. Miami hurt us with the hurry up at times and the short screen plays. A fun game to watch indeed. As far as going for it on 4th down, I like the call to kick it, but I liked the fact of just finishing it without Miami getting another touch since they could move it quickly on offense.
Would you call our opportunistic defense “Butch Ball”?
I was thinking after the second score off an interception that the negative factor with the defense scoring is that they don’t get to rest.
The 4th and 1 was the right call, although there’s still the risk of a bad snap (which it was, but saved by the holder). I could envision Houston pounding it for the first down, but could also see Miami stacking things up for no gain. It was a calculated decision to go for the 3 points.
You gotta get the 3 points in the bag, not leave yourself open for a touchdown loss and force the offense to get a touchdown with a few minutes left in the game. There was a thought about getting two on that last touchdown though. Fleeting but it was there to be sure.
But if you go for 2 and don’t make it, a touchdown or two FGs beat you.