Sometimes it is hard to reconcile a box score and how the game actually flows. Since I was not able to watch yesterday’s game in real time and had to DVR it, I decided to keep a possession chart like I did many times in my 14 years as a high school and college basketball coach. Hopefully this will give some context as to what actually goes into the box score.
If you don’t want all the “inside baseball” talk, here is the executive summary: UNC scored 71 points on 77 possessions, for 0.92 points per possession. Not horrible, particularly given the poor shooting, but decent teams usually hover around 1.0 or better. More telling was the 17 misses in the lane or within 8 feet of the basket. I was also discouraged in looking at the transition opportunities in that the Heels appear to want to shoot more than drive – 9 drives vs. 13 jump shot attempts.
After UNC takes an early 6-5 lead, the Heels only score on two of their next nine possessions, with three turnovers and three missed shots in the paint. After falling behind 32-16, UNC scores on 6 of 8 possessions with only one turnover to cap a 14-2 run and cut the score to 34-30. The the Heels only connect on 2 of their final nine possessions of the first half, with three misses in the paint, two turnovers, and two transition misses to go into the break trailing by 10.
In the second half, after withstanding the Maryland run and cutting the lead to 4 points at 58-54, Carolina only scratched on 5 of its next 23 possessions and was outscored 34-13.
In any case, maybe this shows the how and why behind the numbers. Bold signifies scoring possessions:
| 1st half:
Possession |
1st half:
Result |
| 1 | Drew jacks up 18 ft jumper 1 on 3 in transition |
| 2 | Ginyard misses open 3 from right corner |
| 3 | Ginyard makes layup in transition |
| 4 | Davis shot blocked on pick and roll; Ginyard feeds Thompson for baseline turnaround jumper |
| 5 | Thompson hits 15 ft jumper (6-5 lead – UNC’s only lead of the game) |
| 6 | Ginyard bad pass on 2-on-1 break – TURNOVER |
| 7 | Davis forces contested jumper; Graves gets offensive rebound and misses putback |
| 8 | Graves hits open 3 six seconds into shot clock |
| 9 | Strickland forces jumper in 1-on-2 transition |
| 10 | Thompson attempts baseline shot from under the backboard |
| 11 | Strickland TURNOVER in transition |
| 12 | Thompson fouled going to basket in transition – 1-2 FT |
| 13 | T. Wear misses 8 ft baseline turnaround jumper |
| 14 | D. Wear commits charge – TURNOVER – UNC calls time out |
| 15 | D. Wear makes 18 ft jumper in transition |
| 16 | Davis makes turnaround jumper in lane |
| 17 | Henson shoots ugly baseline hook shot |
| 18 | Ginyard fouled in transition – 1-2 FT |
| 19 | Thompson trapped on baseline – TURNOVER |
| 20 | Drew quick 15 ft jumper in transition – Graves rebound slam dunk |
| 21 | Drew drives – misses layup; Henson misses stickback in lane (UMD goes up 32-16) |
| 22 | Graves makes NBA 3 from left wing |
| 23 | Thompson makes layup in transition |
| 24 | T. Wear misses 18 ft baseline jumper |
| 25 | T. Wear TURNOVER on baseline |
| 26 | Ginyard makes layup in transition |
| 27 | Strickland makes 3 from left wing in flow of offense |
| 28 | Davis makes 15 ft jumper in transition |
| 29 | McDonald makes 18 ft jumper on ball reversal (lead cut to 34-30 – 14-2 UNC run) |
| 30 | Davis misses layup |
| 31 | Drew unforced TURNOVER in backcourt |
| 32 | McDonald misses 3 with 29 on shot clock |
| 33 | Thompson has ball knocked away 25 feet from basket – TURNOVER |
| 34 | Davis misses 5 ft turnaround jumper |
| 35 | Drew throws up out-of-control airball; Davis rebounds and scores on stickback |
| 36 | Stickland forces 14 ft jumper in 2-on-4 transition |
| 37 | Ginyard fouled on drive to basket – 2-2 FT |
| 38 | Graves shoots contested 3 |
| 2nd half: Possession |
2nd half:
Result |
| 1 | Drew TURNOVER at mid-court |
| 2 | Ginyard makes 3 from left corner on reversal |
| 3 | Thompson misses layup |
| 4 | Ginyard misses open 3 |
| 5 | Ginyard misses transition layup; Thompson misses stickback; Thompson misses another stickback; finally scores off rebound |
| 6 | Thompson makes 12 ft baseline jumper + foul; 1-1 FT |
| 7 | Ginyard makes 3 off reversal and ball fakes |
| 8 | Graves forces 3 from left corner; Ginyard hustles for offensive rebound; Henson scores on drive and dunk |
| 9 | Thompson fouled on turnaround jumper in lane – 2-2 FT (UNC cuts to 52-49) |
| 10 | Graves makes forced runner in lane |
| 11 | Strickland drives – never looks to pass – layup blocked |
| 12 | Press broken, Graves misses 12 ft jumper instead of going to the hoop |
| 13 | Ginyard misses open 3; Henson misses stickback; Graves scores on putback |
| 14 | Ginyard fouled in transition – 1-2 FT (UNC cuts to 58-54) |
| 15 | Drew picked in backcourt – TURNOVER |
| 16 | McDonald misses 3 in flow of offense |
| 17 | Drew drives and TURNOVER |
| 18 | Drew TURNOVER on bad-angle post feed |
| 19 | D. Wear misses 16 ft jumper in transition (10-0 MD run, 68-54) |
| 20 | T. Wear fouled on drive – 2-2 FT |
| 21 | Ginyard misses driving layup |
| 22 | T. Wear travels in transition – TURNOVER |
| 23 | Ginyard makes 3 off reversal |
| 24 | Thompson misses 12 ft jumper; Davis misses stickback – UNC calls timeout |
| 25 | Drew out-of-control drive but fouled – 0-2 FT |
| 26 | Thompson post-up and score |
| 27 | Ginyard short-arm misses 15 ft jumper off curl |
| 28 | Ginyard misses 3 in transition (now 83-61 MD) |
| 29 | Davis misses layup but fouled – 2-2 FT |
| 30 | Davis misses contested turnaround jumper in lane |
| 31 | Drew wild drive; Davis bails him out and is fouled – 0-2 FT; Henson gets offensive rebound and misses putback |
| 32 | Drew misses 3 in transition; Henson gets offensive rebound; Drew nice feed to Davis for dunk |
| 33 | Ginyard misses quick 3 |
| 34 | Thompson misses 12 ft jumper |
| 35 | Strickland steal and coast-to-coast layup |
| 36 | Strickland unforced TURNOVER |
| 37 | Strickland bad pass – TURNOVER (MD 92-67) |
| 38 | Strickland fouled on drive – 2-2 FT |
| 39 | Henson makes 18 ft jumper from wing |
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Wow…. when you look at the game this way, UNC looks more like the Running of the Stooges than a basketball team.
Thanks Doc! Question, did you repeat possession 17,18 of the second 1/2? This is the stretch where the heels were down by 9, Drew comes off the bench to commit 2 turnovers and a foul in about 30 seconds and then goes back to the bench trailing by 11. Both the ESPN play-by-play and TarHeelBlue have just 2, not 3, turnovers in that stretch and both have Drew with 4, not 5, turnovers total. Either way, the KID is going to get hacked by the bandwagon so it probably does not matter to anyone not on the team.
and what was Maryland’s points per possession?
Approximately 1.21. Unless we are talking jigawatts, that is a bad number…
wow.
i know Maryland played well, but i dont see how anyone can judge that they are a great team when they face that D. it means about as much as me scoring at will on the neighborhood kids still in middle school.
they got many many easy shots and that is going to make you look like youre doing something you arent.
It’s shocking how bad this team is. I’m beginning to question next year’s recruiting class. Is Barnes the real deal? How about Bullock? After watching Henson (a top 5 high school recruit last year), I’m quickly losing confidence in the recruiting analysis.
C. Michael, actually 1.21 jigawatts might be a *really* good number right now — where is the Delorean? I could go use a good trip back in time.
^ i think he knew that.
frankly, i dont know how much more any of us can even post about with this team.
we have Roy’s own words that he basically owes it to Deon and Marcus.
and we have many comments from the players themselves that they need to play harder, care more, give more effort, yet…they dont.
watching Villanova-West Virginia right now, i see 10 guys hustling.
probably will see quite a bit of that in Kansas-Texas next, too.
we have our answers. the parties involved have given them to us. so unless they DO anything different, i think we are about out of comments.
@Boulder:
It’s not an duplicate, it’s a judgment call on my part. The Tar Heel Blue box score gives the TO in possession #15 to Davis, who was actually the last Carolina player to touch the ball. Technically correct, but the ball was knocked away from Drew and Davis never really had a chance to pick it up cleanly, IIRC. I therefore assigned responsibility to Drew even though by the rules the TO goes to Davis.
^sorta like the TO Graves got the game before when Deon dropped it off his foot.
I wanted to find the Barnes analysis/observation someone had made in a comment to a previous post regarding Barnes. I searched the site for 20 minutes and finally gave up but it showed his level or the agreement of multiple sources regarding his ranking and it compared him to past players and their combined ranking – ratio?
This was some pretty powerful medicine for me, if you posted this info, please repost. I need the info. I also think that we need laser beams attached to the guards.
Go Heels!
I always thought that the T.O went to the player that last held possession of the ball so that a guard would get the T.O. when passing to a big man who does not catch it cleanly….even though it hit the big man in the hands.
In any event, 14 T.Os was not that many….but they were poooorly timed! Shooting just 31% also really hurts because it prevents UNC from setting up its defense. Should I put defense in quotes? I do not know what you call what we saw the other night.
BBLB,
I think you are thinking about the RSCI rankings mentioned. Essentially, Barnes joins (or will join) Amare, LeBron, Dwight Howard, and Greg Oden as the only recruits in the last decade to have an average ranking of 1. He has a good shot at being unanimous.
http://rscihoops.com/
The “AS” ranking is Bob Gibbons, and in his latest rankings (December) he has moved Barnes up to a tie for #1 with Sullinger. Gibbons also ranks Bullock #6 and Marshall #9, and he is about as respected as they come when it comes to recruiting.
“wow.
i know Maryland played well, but i dont see how anyone can judge that they are a great team when they face that D. it means about as much as me scoring at will on the neighborhood kids still in middle school.
they got many many easy shots and that is going to make you look like youre doing something you arent.”
yep-my contention too–can’t say UNC isn’t innovative however–never heard of the “mannequin defense” until this year.
lady Tar Heels were routed by Dook tonight.
Thanks, C.Michael. I’m loving Gibbon’s projections. Let’s hope he is right. We desperately need the shot in the arm. The big question next season will be team chemistry. Strickland might be a good leader next season, but my guess is that Barnes will command the most respect in the locker room.
yeah, if you like Gibbons, he has the Wears rated higher than any of the raters.
Henson, Strickland, and the Wears are all top 26.
C.Michael,
Bob Gibbons says about John Henson in his final appraisal last spring:
“At #3 is versatile, long, wiry North Carolina signee, 6-10 forward John Henson, who moved last summer from Round Rock, Texas, to Tampa, FL/ Sickles. Henson is a more skilled version for former Tar Heel player, Brandon Wright. He can play at all three frontcourt positions for Coach Roy Williams next year, and has an accurate shooting touch with extended range.”
An accurate shooting touch with extended range?
I know he was playing against High School players then, but he hasn’t demonstrated much range yet. He has made a few outside shots, but he seems more comfortable inside, or driving the basket. It is amazing watching him get from the top of the lane to the basket. I just wish it happened more.
^I can see that–he hit a shot from the side yesterday with very little hesitation (when nobody else was doing anything offensively). Had a nice stroke, but the notable thing to me was the situation, which indicates it is a confidence issue imo.
Here’s what Gibbons says about Barnes:
Moving up to share Number One honors with Sullinger is highly skilled, 6-6 G/F Harrison Barnes, Ames, IA/ Ames H.S. Barnes is an outstanding student-athlete, and has a high basketball I.Q. He is exceptionally athletic, and can play either wing position. Barnes is very smooth, and can score from the perimeter or with his highly effective mid-range game. We compare him to NBA All-Star Kobe Bryant as a high school senior. After keeping a “tight lid” on his recruiting, Barnes signed in November with Coach Roy Williams’ North Carolina program, choosing the Tar Heels over Duke, Iowa State, Kansas, UCLA, and Oklahoma. He will be an “immediate impact player” and probable starter at UNC next season.
Kobe Bryant? Did this guy rate Bryant?
Here’s what he has to say about shooting guard Bullock:
Completing our 2010 “Super Six” is high scoring, versatile, 6-6 shooting guard Reggie Bullock, Kinston, N.C./ High School. As a junior, he was a First Team All-State performer, averaging 24 ppg., and taking Kinston High to their first N.C. 3A state championship since 1965. Bullock is a stellar athlete, and one of the most accurate perimeter shooters in the Class of 2010. He signed early with Coach Roy Williams’ North Carolina Tar Heels, and should be a key contributor at the shooting guard position next year.
Once again these guys look stellar on paper. How will reality turn out?
52bgJ
Watching these guys try to play, especially the freshman, seems to me that they are very uncertain of what to do. Henson has made lots of turnovers and crazy plays, but he has at times done good things too.
I am hopeful that he can get past this!
Most probably do not know that Mr. Bryant was drafted #13 by the Charlotte Hornets in 1996. He was promptly traded to the Lakers, and he has been fortunate there.
So Barnes and Bryant?
Gibbons has been ranking players for 36 years. Gibbons publishes an annual ranking of the top 150 high school players in the U.S., as well as separate rankings of seniors, juniors, sophomores, and freshmen. He has also been on committees that select players for the annual McDonald’s High School All-American Game and the Nike Hoop Summit.
So I guess like most things, the “experts” keep things in a small sphere of complimentary “expertise.”
I think our team has better talent than its record. In flashes (admittedly rare), you can see that Henson and Strickland have excellent tools. The Wears are for the most part solid and fundamenyally sound, as advertised. The idea that all the high school scouts were unanimously wrong is implausible, and undermined by what we (occasionally) see. Henson in particular could be fantastic if he knew how to play basketball.
The main problem with the team is two-fold. We expected our two senior role players to be more than any evidence of their past performance would justify; and quite unexpectedly, the coach doesn’t know how to handle this particular group. That is exceedingly rare for a HOF coach, but it’s too obvious for words that that is the story for us this season.
Among the secondary problems are no muscle underneath; inconsistent performance at PG; and no perimeter defense (a carry-over from last year). Put all these things together and you get what we are getting.
While I admire Doc and C.Michael for their sophisticated, diligent and close analysis, trying to figure out this season with statistics is like trying to figure out a trainwreck with trigonometry. You might be able to shed some sort of light, but what you’ve got at the end is still a trainwreck.
one thing that sticks out to me on the rsci report is strickland was at 24, “down 13″….that means he had been in or around #11 overall. i thought the drop may have been b/c he’s on such a good HS team and as a senior who already locked in a scholarship w/ UNC, he might have been trying to play the facilitator and learn the PG position, while letting others shine. a top 10 or close to top 10 slashing SG from new jersey is the type of kid you drool over if you’re a loser like me looking at rankings. and the kid won a rucker’s park dunk contest. however, the drop in his ranking seems legit, b/c he’s not crushing it like a top ten guy should be. but who knows, maybe that’s his adjusting to the system and learning the 1, and thus playing more passive w/o the green light? dang, if he and henson can keep positive and keep improving this year, it could mean good things for next year.
i can’t recall a legitimate top 10 recruit that we’ve had recently whose gone bust ala nolan smith at duke, who was ranked at or around wehre kevin durant was ranked coming out of high school.
these guys, for the most part, know their hoops, which is why henson is such a mystery but why people were (and rightly so) excited about the ray/rashad/may and the ty/wayne/wright classes. next year should be similar…and if kendall marshall is the truth then WATCH OUT!
so all this talk of freshmen got me wondering…who are the top freshmen this year?
these are ACC-only numbers.
there arent any in the Top 20 scoring. Favors is in the rebounding list, as is Jordan Williams of Maryland. Favors seems to lead all ACC freshmen with 11 ppg.
outside of them, you have to go a little deeper.
i found exactly 2 more freshmen that avg double digits scoring.
Scott Wood of State (10.3) and CJ Harris of Wake (10). of course, they are averaging about 30 minutes of court time.
Jordan Williams is getting 8.4 pts, 7 rebounds and 1.4 TOs a game in 26 minutes.
{incidentally, Deon is getting 11.6/4.5/ and 2.3 TOs in the same amount of minutes}
did you know that John Henson and Leslie McDonald have identical numbers in the same minutes per game? me either.
9.5 minutes…3.4 pts/1.4reb
Strickland leads all our freshmen with 17.6 minutes. he’s getting just under 7 pts per ACC game. on a per minute basis, Strickland is right there with Favors (28 mpg).
so who are they gonna pick for the All Freshman team?
Favors, for his 11 and 9.
Wood and CJ Harris based solely on total points?
Jordan Williams is solidly in.
maybe Brian Oliver of GT for his 8/3 in 19 minutes.
maybe Durrand Scott of Miami for his 7.8/3/2.2assists.
Reggie Johnson (295 lbs!) gets 5.8 and 5 in 15 minutes.
but i bet not Strickland who has better points per minute than anyone but Favors, Oliver and Johnson.
seems like our freshmen get fewer minutes than any freshmen in the conference that are actually playing. there are others, but they sit half the games, or play a minute or two.
did you know BC has only one freshman, and he doesnt play. next year they’re probably starting 4 seniors and a junior.
correction, nolan smith was the year after, with rose, gordon, love, etc…and espn had him at #6 and so did bob gibbons, overall but rsci had him (more accurately) at 19
Gibbons ranks kendall marshall #9. He is left handed, which could be an advantage. He is thought of as a very good passer.
Maybe we could use that!
So:
that’s 1,6,and nine overall for next year.
All these guys are outside players. So what are they thinking about Henson playing outside. Let him play more inside.
Let him drive the basket.
Heel To The End
That is interesting.
I really like Harris. He is poised and a very good shooter. I think he will progress to be very effective over his career.
Favors had all the hype. He has had some very good games, but as typical of most freshmen, he is inconsistent.
Tyler Hansbrough:
SEASON TEAM MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2005-2006 UNC 30.4 18.9 7.8 1.3 2.5 .52 1.2 .7 2.8 .570 .739 .500 1.68
2006-2007 UNC 29.9 18.4 7.9 1.2 1.9 .61 1.1 .4 2.4 .525 .768 .250 1.61
2007-2008 UNC 33.0 22.6 10.2 .9 2.1 .42 1.5 .4 2.4 .540 .806 .000 1.65
2008-2009 UNC 30.3 20.7 8.1 1.0 1.9 .54 1.2 .4 2.3 .514 .841 .391 1.62
Well it is fairly clear that this year’s freshmen are a little bit behind #50.
we have 4 or 5 of the top, what, 40 freshmen in the country…on paper…and probably wont get any of them on the ACC team. primarily because they arent getting the minutes most of the others are.
The other thing about the ACC freshmen this year is that they are not all that special. The conference as a whole is not all that great. I guess there should not be a great deal of surprise there either.
Maybe having three of the top nine recruits next year will help UNC.
oh, and i see Will Graves tied for 15th in ACC rebounding.
where’s Deon?
oh.
so, Will Graves is in the Top 20 of scoring and rebounding. Will Graves. the only Tar Heel to be on both lists.
2009 Gibbons ratings:
Henson: 3
Strickland : 13
Wears: 25, 26
ALL OF THEM McD All Americans.
Here’s an interesting evaluation of Thompson trying out for the US National team:
“Deon Thompson was about as aggressive a player as you’ll find at these tryouts, trying to make a strong move in the post or shoot a jump-shot basically every time he touched the ball. Unfortunately, he ended up forcing the issue a great deal, making some scouts wonder whether he’s something of a black hole after spinning into a double-team and getting absolutely smothered in the post by Jarvis Varnado on repeated possessions. He’s going to have to learn to play better without being the focal point of the offense, which seems to have been somewhat of an issue for him at North Carolina as well.”
So when Deon has it he shoots it. He does not pass. Sometimes he drives to the basket. He is averaging 6 rebounds this year.
Learning how to play as a part of a team?????
Heel To The End
I have been really critical of Graves. But he is the most improved player on the team. He is trying. Sure he is big and slow.
But unlike some of his team mates, he puts his nose in there and gets rebounds. And he has made quite a few moves to the basket and across the lane of late. Not just from outside.
Well somebody has to do it.
^i’ve brought this up before. we always used to talk about/hear about Tyler’s assist numbers being so low. well, Deon is right there, and he isnt scoring 20 a game.
and his rebounds are 4.5 /game in the ACC. fewer than when he had Tyler playing next to him.
he’s just not very good. especially for a senior.
lets see…players in both the Top 20 scoring AND rebounding…
Singler, Tracy Smith, Booker, Aminu, Mike Scott(VA), Singleton and Alabi(FSU)…and Will.
does this make Will a 2nd teamer?
I remember how much trouble we had with Clemson, and then even more so with Kansas in 2008, with being dominated down low. Deon did not man up against Kansas and Tyler was a man alone and very frustrated. I had the same worry in 2009 but our guard and outside play had improved so much that teams could not pack it in against us.
Still, I was sort of looking towards our big guys this year as being a potential source of improvement. You really do have to wonder if the loss of Hansbrough is key here. Maybe Hansbrough, not Roy, was keeping Deon and Ed on the straight and narrow, as both had to defer to him.
Reading that article that someone posted earlier from yahoo sports, was quite interesting. I was surprised to see the coaches hint that they were not particularly happy with these freshmen either, as Roy said basically, “you got to coach the guys that show up, even if they are worse than you expected.”
Even for Roy, I was surprised to see just how much he seemed to be wearing his heart on his sleeve.
And for those who think some are being too hard on the players, this is from Roy’s own mouth:
“I’ve never coached effort. I always coached execution, but with this group I’ve had to coach effort.”
I seem to recall Roy saying similar things about the 05 team, as he was trying to get them headed in the right direction. And I don’t really object to a blanket statement like that–it’s when he singles a player out that I consider TUTB. And some here ARE too hard on individual players at times. They get so blinded with their frustration, they fail to see even the few good things a struggling player may do. If we had followed some of the “bench so & so” advice served up this year, we wouldn’t have been able to put 5 on the court…not that that would matter.
The trouble with Deon – and Ed Davis for that matter – is that neither one of them is physical enough or aggressive enough to handle a double team. Last year, they didn’t have to worry about that because Hansbrough drew the double team. This year the other teams don’t even bother to guard certain other players that we have out there and just swarm around our post players. Deon and Ed just aren’t ready for that.
As for the Harrison Barnes projections, I keep reminding myself that EVERYONE wanted that guy. How often are UNC, Duke, Kansas and Kentucky all wrong about how good a player is? At least thats what I keep telling myself… but admittadly, this season has me pretty desperately looking for any light at the end of the dark, miserable, unhappy tunnel we are stuck in…
“Still, I was sort of looking towards our big guys this year as being a potential source of improvement. You really do have to wonder if the loss of Hansbrough is key here.”
The loss of Hansbrough is huge because I always figured having him in the game was at least the equivalent of 1.5 players. The other thing that has been discussed is the lack of respect the rest of this years’ team gets, scoring-wise, allowing defenses to overguard the post players. Ed and Deon looked better last year as much because of Ty, Wayne, and Danny’s abilities as Tyler’s.
I just found this site, and I have really enjoyed what I have read so far. Well, it would be better if it was about the Heels winning. But this is a wonderful analysis. There is just so many things wrong with this team. It’s the perfect storm of errors. Too many turnovers, not enough scorers, and they do a poor job on defense. I wish Roy would slow down the game on offense, and just play zone on defense if the players can’t get out on the three point shots quick enough, and get burned by the guards. The man to man is not working, especially since they always double down low and leave someone wide open for threes.
I never understood this philosophy on defense anyway. Too many players can hit the three ball with ease today. There are more shooters than there used to be. It’s a lot harder hitting a four foot shot with a guy in your face for a big man down low than it is for a guard to hit a wide open three. If they are going to play man to man, I wish they would play straight up and not leave shooters open for threes. But this has been something that UNC has always done. It’s just that this season it is killing them more often because they are doing a poor job of getting back on the three point shooters.
The good thing is the Heels won it all last year, and have two titles in the last five years. Yes, this year is very disappointing, but they lost four of the best players from their team last year. The team this season is really a bunch of guys who didn’t play last year plus Davis and Thompson. It’s just one bad season. The Heels will be better next season, and they will be back to winning titles again soon. I can take a season like this every four or five years right after winning a title.
Dean/Gut/Roy have always played the odds and figure a team isnt going to shoot 40-50% from 3 on them. i dont see that changing.
watching that 1984 ACCT game between Dook and UNC the other day on Classic…no 3 point line. if you havent watched a game without a 3 point line in awhile, you really should. TOTALLY different dynamic out there.
i wonder, if you graphed every made shot in every game these days…would shots fro outside 3 added to shots inside oh, 4 ft, represent…50% of shots? 70%? 80%?
Someone mention that scouts couldn’t be wrong about an entire five man class:
http://www.highschoolot.com/content/blogpost/4647376/
Well said Heelbent.
Talking about talent on paper and performance on the court: McDonalds all-Americans (check), top-rated recruits (check), depth at most positions (check).
So why are so many players not playing up to their talent level? For me it’s a disconnect between the best players and the players who are leading the team. You want your leader to be a top performer. Now I see a couple problems this year. First, not much in the way of natural leadership. There are a lot of ways to lead for sure, but I don’t detect any player filling that role. Ginyard and Thompson are the natural candidates but neither of them seem to have it. Anyway it’s hard to take leadership from someone who is struggling with their own game. Drew and Davis would be next in line and they don’t seem to be wired to lead either. Graves is a candidate as someone who performing up to and beyond expectations, but again he’s flawed as a leader.
It is rare for a young player to step forward (especially in a system like Roy Williams Heels where seniority means something) but that is what we have to hope for. The team needs a leader to get them out of their emotional tailspin and start having fun again. A leader will find a way to get them going even after a few losses.
WRAL:
While the Tar Heels have fallen into this pattern of lackluster play, Montross says that there is hope for this team to improve, but it comes down to one key area. “One of the players said (after the Maryland game) that it’s an effort thing. Well, that seems to me like it is an absolute player issue,” Montross said.”If this team has any chance of turning this thing around, these are things that are correctable. You can lose, but you can lose in a fashion that you can be somewhat proud of your effort.”
Effort has been a hot-button issue this year’s Tar Heel team. Head Coach Roy Williams has said that he is as frustrated as he has ever been by his team’s performance this season, and has taken a great deal of the blame, claiming that he has done a bad job coaching and motivating this squad. Montross, however, says that Roy hasn’t changed his methods very much this year. “These guys don’t seem to be responding to the normal methods of motivation,” Montross says.”My fear is that this team has issues with self-motivation, because the message has not changed. Coach Williams has not won 80% of his games because of luck. I think that this team needs to find some inner motivation and quit letting him put it on his shoulders. He is certainly partly responsible, but at some point you have to say the players are responsible for what is going on.”
^HTTE – I heard that interview and I think its yet another reason why it seems like we might need to just write off this recruiting class. Thus, NEXT year’s recruits might be part one of building another Final Four team. Part two would be getting McAdoo the year after that, coupled with Zeller turning into a really good player. But most importantly Kendal Marshall can’t turn out to be another LDII or Quentin Thomas…
“and just play zone on defense if the players can’t get out on the three point shots quick enough, and get burned by the guards. The man to man is not working, especially since they always double down low and leave someone wide open for threes.”
I always find it funny that when a team is bad defensively that alot of fans suggest “just play a zone”. If a team is as bad with man to man principles as this Carolina team is, then they are even worse playing zone, which this team has proven. When you don’t know how to talk and guard your man and play help side defense, you are even worse trying to guard an area of the court in a zone. And what you end up with is a whole bunch of players standing around, two players guarding one, and then given wide open gaps and easy baskets, which this team does every time it plays zone. Additionally, this team already has trouble rebounding, so playing zone only magnifies that problem. Zone is not the magic bullet to Carolina playing better defense, instead talking, focus, effort, and better fundamentals are much more realistic solutions.
very good tar heel basketball mailbag over at tarheelblue.
with questions about the grading system, timeouts, and our favorite championship players getting their jerseys honored in the rafters this weekend.
http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/020910aad.html
“I think its yet another reason why it seems like we might need to just write off this recruiting class. ”
I don’t write off any Carolina player, once a Tar Heel always a Tar Heel. Especially a group of freshmen who are averaging less than 10min of playing time a game.
I’ve been as critical of the seniors as anyone, and I may not agree with how they should be used or how they are shown favoritism and are given passes by the coaching staff, but I have never written them off. I may lose hope or confidence in their abilities and frustrated with their performances, but I always want every Tar Heel player to succeed to the best of their abilities, even though we have learned that some player’s abilities are very limited.
^When I say write off what I mean is that we should expect that they will no more then role players, not stars. Please don’t read more into it then that.
^yup. and those freshmen are getting their ten minutes in about 4 segments of 2plus minutes.
i dream of the Wears becoming twin Joe Wolfs. (or is that Wolves?) i dont know why that isnt possible.
850, understand your point maybe write off was not the best choice of words, but I still think it is too early with this group to say there are zero stars, considering they get to play for 2-3min increments and are yanked after every single mistake. I’ll agree that the outlook for the Wears and McDonald would not be for them to develop into stars, but they were never expected to be anything more than role players. I think the jury is still out on Strickland and Henson until they can play meaningful minutes at their natural positions.
If this team cannot get the proper motivation to play tomorrow night against Dook and put forth a great effort, even if they lose the game, then I will admit that they cannot be taught “effort” by Roy or any other coach. GO HEELS!!
Ed Davis still consistently projected as a top ten draft pick despite his less than stellar season.
^I doubt that Ed will be back next year. He’s already got a championship ring and, for reasons I cannot fathom, his draft stock is very high.
maybe i’m wrong, but i just dont feel an emotional connection between ed and the program/fans/the name on the jersey, whatever you want to call it. i dont feel it.
He does seem like he’s sort of doing his own thing… but i don’t know if that is just the sign of a low key, easy going personality or an indication that he just doesn’t work very hard. I am definately dissappointed that he is not noticeably stronger this year then he was last year, which is why, if I were an NBA GM, I would be very hesitant to use a high draft pick on him.
^I think everyone is waiting for the big time game where Ed dominates the low post against a quality opponent, you know the 20pt 12rb 5blck performance. Would be nice if that finally happened on Wednesday…….
sort of like all the twittering they do, i think i would end the practice of wearing headphones during the pregame warmup. theyre off in their own little worlds, not a cohesive family unit.
“We had one guy to qualify and that was it. To qualify to win the defensive player award, you’ve got to have a 2:1 ratio of good plays against bad. And we only had one guy to qualify and I think we only had three guys to be positive. We had more negatives than we’ve had in any game this year. But for the first time in his young, young, young career, John Henson was the defensive player of the game.”
Now if the justification for playing time is correct that it is directly related to grading of performances, then you would expect the only guy from the previous game that qualified for defensive player of the game to garner more minutes in the next outing. Let’s see if Henson can eclipse the 10min mark for playing time on Wednesday.
“Ed Davis still consistently projected as a top ten draft pick despite his less than stellar season.”
Yeah, HTTE, but I’m not sure how up to date those mock drafts are. I know some of them are from the start of the season and I would be surprised if his stock hasn’t dropped at this date…..how much is the question. Same thing for John Wall, at least going from 1st to 2nd or 3rd maybe. If the draft were held tomorrow DeMarcus Cousins would likely go 1st, but there’s still alot of basketball left to be played.
HTTE, I’ve actually heard that Carolina’s players send texts and tweets to each other in the locker room vs. actually walking over and actually talking to one another. If that is true that says alot about this team’s personality and social unity, or maybe it is just a sign of the times and I’m just getting too old to understand. Either way, how about instead of post game interviews the players just tweet their platitudes from now on…
Maybe they should be grounded? A kid doesn’t do his homework, you take his toys away. Maybe these kids should be banned from twitter until they put together a three game winning streak. Maybe that will get their attention?
LarryS,
from what i gathered, most of the mocks, not all, but most, have been updated since the start of 2010.
Draft is all about “potential”, but I still find it hard to believe that Davis would be a top 10 draft pick with his performance to date. Wright was a much better college player than Davis, and Wright will be lucky to have a contract and still be in the league come fall.
Oh OK, HTTE. I imagine Ed’s seen as a work-in-progress with a good upside, like a lot of younger players are. You also have to consider that 6-10 players who have his skill set aren’t exactly a dime a dozen. I still hope he comes back.
Brandan Wright’s future still seems pretty good to me if his rehab turns out well. He had that shoulder injury last year, again this year, and looks like he’ll miss most, if not all , of this year going through rehab. But he was starting to play better toward the end of last year and had a nice 25 pt. game against Phil. in March. Sort of a glimpse of what he could be. The Warriors are actually pretty pleased with his play and expect to exercise his contract option for 2010-2011.
I think you’re getting too old to understand, lol.
Just curious-am I the only one on here who thinks Brandan looks back in a few years and regrets coming out early, missing out on a full College experience and a NC?
52bgJ – He might sit back and wish he stayed in college as he’s counting his millions of dollars.
thanks–I never considered that.
I’m just saying that he might have a small wish that he stayed to win a national championship, but most of the guys want the big bucks in the end. He’s getting millions and he’s injured.
I think he would have gotten the big bucks in the end–plus a ring, and priceless memories.
That’s true. I read somewhere that he was very excited for the team to win it all last year.
I hate seeing Hansbrough out with the inner ear infection, but at the same time, I’m glad it didn’t happen a year earlier…
^^Or he could have had his shoulder injury in college and watched his draft stock plummet. Hate to say it, but taking the money as soon as its available is the smart thing to do.
L8N
I hate to tell you this: I fear that Hansbrough’s head problem relates to all the trauma he suffered, especially last year, as a target for abuse. He has always had a physical style, but if he has an inner ear fluid leak issue and vertigo as a result his playing days could be over.
I hope that is not correct. But he has clearly carried on his very physical style in the NBA. At this time of the season, mainstream players are generally going through the motions. He has been accused by several of being way too aggressive. Hence retribution.
I don’t expect him to change. But this sort of problem could be very serious for him. I doubt he will play again this year as things now stand.
Sorry!
AZACCFan:
That could very well be the case. Maybe he should suit up and be an assistant coach on the UNC bench and help teach how to be physical and motivated. I might be on to something here…
maybe so, but when Ty, Wayne, Danny & Tyler come back for those reunions in their 40’s (all well off$ btw), I bet somebody brings it up. Good thing Tyler didn’t feel that way–wonder what McAdoo has to say about it?
You only get one chance to do most things in life.
When you are young, it is hard to penetrate the aura of invincibility. But that is when you have the most options to do something about it.
I hope these guys wake up soon!
AZACC,
I hadn’t really read or heard about any complaints of Hansbrough’s aggressive style until you brought it up, then I decided to search the topic. That led me to this column by Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe. Excuse me if it has been linked here before, but I though it was very good.
http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/articles/2009/12/23/hansbrough_elbowing_into_role_in_nba/
I saw an article in the Charlotte Observer that indicated that Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock might be having lackluster senior seasons. Anyone know anything about that?
william, IC has a running tab of the season results of the recruits:
http://northcarolina.scout.com/3/commitmentstats10.html#barnes
Bullock is averaging about 25pts a game and his team is doing well after some disappointing showings in holiday tournaments.
Marshall does appear to be having a lackluster season and his stats do not appear stellar for an elite PG on the high school level. But a large portion of the starters on his team were kicked off the team earlier in the season and only recently rejoined the team, so that could have some impact.
Barnes is putting up numbers that resemble those of the top talent in the class.
Again take all with a grain of salt considering competition is not the same in Iowa, Northern Virginia, or North Carolina as the ACC, although I think many teams in the ACC might struggle against some of the best high school teams in the country this season.
William,
There have been lots of recruiting downgrades on Marshall. He is described as slow and he has not been scoring. He was called “the next Jason Kidd.” Where do these recruiters come up with this stuff?
Apparently he does not have the speed or shooting ability that was formerly attributed to him. Supposedly there have been player roster problems on his High School team. At least he is getting a taste of that problem!
How many coaches are there on the UNC staff? It seems to me that figuring out this should not be too tough.
The other two are probably doing OK.
Apparently, Williams implied on his radio show last night that he might alter his commitment to Marshall. I didn’t hear that but it was reported.
LarryS
That is a great article on Hansbrough. It came out right before he started to have problems with balance and his current issue.
The problem is that the human body is a fragile thing. You only get so many chances with it.
The longer this thing with Hansbrough goes on, the worse it looks.
By the way, there is no such thing as an inner ear infection. There are external and internal otitis, which are ear canal and on the other side of the eardrum and hearing mechanism infections respectively. The inner ear is the sanctum sanctorum, and if there is a problem there, rest and time are basically the only remedies.
“The inner ear is the sanctum sanctorum, and if there is a problem there, rest and time are basically the only remedies.”
That’s the problem, and to make life easier, they call it an “inner ear infection.” Thanks for the clarification though (not being sarcastic)
Haven’t heard any comments from last night either, but Marshall has signed a LOI, so I don’t think altering his commitment means pulling a scholarship unless Roy and staff want to look like pure a-holes. What it may mean is that he might recruit another elite PG in the 2011 class, which he might have indicated to Marshall in his recruitment that he would not do. This is one reason I do not like offering scholarships to sophomores in High School, seems a little early to identify which players have plateau or how each player will continue to develop. Anyone recall or remember the name Felipe Lopez who was going to be the savior of St. John’s basketball?
Lane Kiffin, the new USC head coach, offered a scholarship last week to a 7th grade quarterback. Of course Kiffin never let the NCAA rules get in the way of his recruiting practices, but apparently this one is by the book. Someone showed this kid’s game film to Kiffin and then Kiffin told that person that he would offer the kid a scholarship immediately, but he couldn’t contact the kid or his parents – they had to contact him. So the word got back to them to contact Kiffin….Well you get the picture. I kind of doubt this is what the NCAA had in mind. Wait! Maybe it was exactly what it had in mind.
Hey wait a minute. I was a seventh grade QB. Nobody offered me anything but a chance to be hammered by the ninth graders. I should sue!
Wouldn’t that be funny?
Pathetic actually.
Woody was just on 99.9 and he had news on Tyler, who may be at the game tomorrow night.
a new diagnosis just came down that it isnt an inner ear infection but post-concussive symptoms.
Jeff Gravely was also on, and the first thing out of his mouth was that he wasnt sure it was a good idea for a head coach to say its past time for the players to be “woe is me”, and then to do the whole “this hasnt happened to me in 21 years of coaching, etc, etc” woe is me type thing.
Felipe Lopez? I remember Garcia Vega….
Yeah, I saw that kid on 60 minutes about ten years ago or something. I think he ended up a so-so college player.
People start batting these names around and expect them to be better than the guys we already have.
I will say this, that we all the grief we have given Duke about their prospects not turning out, they have always had a 20 game winner every single year since Dean left and we appeared to be headed for our four non-20 game winning season during that span, with Roy garnering two of them….
latest from tarheelblue:
There’s encouraging news about Tyler Zeller, who has been out approximately one month with a stress fracture in his foot. The big man has x-rays and a CT scan on his foot on Monday. “Things look really good,” Williams said. “He’s been released to do shooting and straight-ahead running. I think that’s all he will do this week. If no pain comes, they would release him to do more next week.”
http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/020910aae.html
DC is supposed to get 6-16 inches of snow to go with the 20 inches we still have left from this weekend….
Consistency is great. In that regard you certainly can’t say Duke’s prospects have not turned out. But around these parts you seem to be defined by national championships, which is probably not fair. It wasn’t fair for Dean, and it’s not fair for Mike. Having said that, I still like UNC’s chances at another national championship before Duke’s. If that happens then I doubt if the Tar Heel Nation will much care about sub-20 win seasons every few years….all will be forgiven and forgotten.
I think some would argue that Roy’s system works better with great talent and that K’s system works better with good to very good talent….
one criticism you never hear about K’s teams is a lack of effort.
seriously, i’d take Wes Miller and either Terry or Noel tomorrow night over a couple guys on the roster now.
Hansbrough’s #50 is being retired at halftime tomorrow night.
I think Greg Monroe and Ekpe Udoh should be higher on everyone’s draft list than Ed Davis.
AZACCFan,
Remember my rule of thumb if a player is compared to another player. They are not as good as the player being compared to. Examples:
Harold Miner= Baby Michael Jordan
Clarence Weatherspoon= Baby Barkley
John Wall= Derick Rose
John Henson= Kevin Durant
Gerald Green= Tracy McGrady
Neil Fingleton= Shawn Bradley (sorry I had throw that one in there, lol)
Taking Ed Davis in the top ten of next year’s NBA draft would be silly, unless I’m missing something. He’s got decent numbers this year, but nothing to get real excited about. He’s somewhat ponderous, very mechanical, and his offensive game is painfully one dimensional. He’s no leader, that’s for certain, and I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him get emotional. He seems to be sleep-walking through this season.
“Octagon of Doom” > “Octagon of Wine & Cheese”
I really hope Hansbrough is going to be OK.
Lord knows how agonizing it was to see him pounded in the head so many times last year. With no foul calls. He just kept coming back for more.
how many threads have gone over 100 this month?
we are yakking our fingers off, of late.