Shot selection.
Via stat guru Adrian Atkins(@Freeportkid) on Twitter.
PJ Hairston is shooting 30.9% on 3-pointers in the 1st 10 seconds of the shot clock, and 38.5% on 3-pointers in seconds 11-35
As a comparison, Barnes shoots 47.1% on 3s in the 1st 10 seconds and 38.9% in seconds 11-35. Bullock is at 38.3% (1-10) and 41.2% (11-35).
Harrison Barnes has been a good three point shooter whenever he decides to take a shot but clearly above average in transition or very early in the half court set. Shooting 37% is good, shooting 47% is really good which says getting him the ball early for a quick shot is a good idea. Reggie Bullock is consistent across the entire shot clock but slightly better after 10 seconds. P.J. Hairston’s shooting is really interesting. Early in the shot clock, Hairston is at 30% from three. after ten seconds or after a few passes in the half court set, Hairston is a 8% better.
I think this speaks to a couple of things. The first is if UNC cannot get a three in transition from Barnes then it should make a concerted effort to go inside first or have either Kendall Marshall and Dexter Strickland create some open looks using penetration. Secondly, some of how this plays out has a lot to do with what personnel is on the floor and how that impacts the offensive flow. If Hairston is out there with Tyler Zeller, John Henson and either Strickland or Marshall, he is a secondary offensive option and in theory should get the ball at a favorable segment of the shot clock. If Hairston is out there without Big Three then he probably feels pressure to shoot the ball and create offense. That leads to impatience and forced shots. It also means he is not looking to drive the ball or create offense other ways as attested to by his team low 13.9% of FGs being unassisted.
The bottom line on these stats is it really comes down to shot selection. Yes, part of the perfect storm of crapitude at FSU had something to do with the top three perimeter shooters all being in a slump at the same time. Being in a shooting slump sometimes causes players to try to hard, take bad shots or shoot, shoot, shoot to break out of it. Since that was the case, I think it really screwed up the offensive flow. Against Miami it didn’t matter because Marshall and Strickland picked up the slack. Against FSU, a really solid defensive team, there was no means of compensating for it. The more the game spun out of control, the more desperate and impatient the shooting became.
Shooters are streaky. Wayne Ellington had his big slump early in 2009 and broke out of it in spectacular fashion with seven threes vs Miami. Danny Green had a horrible shooting stretch late that season but did get it together once UNC got deeper into the NCAA Tournament. Last season, Barnes and Bullock both had stretches of shooting well and shooting badly. My expectation is one, if not all three, will snap out of for a stretch which will permit UNC to get a nice roll going through ACC play. It will probably ease off at some point but hopefully swing back the right direction come March.
![[Bloglines]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/bloglines.png)
![[del.icio.us]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/delicious.png)
![[Digg]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/digg.png)
![[Facebook]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/facebook.png)
![[MySpace]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/myspace.png)
![[Technorati]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/technorati.png)
![[Windows Live]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/windowslive.png)
![[Yahoo!]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/yahoo.png)
![[Email]](../../../wp-content/plugins/bookmarkify/email.png)
I believe I’ve seen more highly-specific stats this year than ever. (Maybe they’ve always been around) Very interesting.
In Hairston’s mind, he’s open the second the ball touches his hands. That’s a confident quality to have, and probably not that huge an exaggeration. (He warms up about 3 or 4 feet behind the line all the time….makes them look like 16 footers too)
He’ll get better at timing his opportunites, and making better decisions. I don’t see him being quite ready to navigate well through traffic, but he has been stuck on only 9 made 2-pointers for three games now. That really could stand some improvement.
you ever wish guys would utilize the 600ish square feet of the court between the rim and the 3pt arc? i remember when guys like Joe Wolf and Doh could make the baseline 10 footer. or the corner of the key jumper.
just wasted space now.
Thanks to ESPN basketball is all about dunking and 3′s. Say what you want about Forte as a person, but that guy dominated the mid range game at UNC.
^^I’m with you on the mid-range dearth.
After you hang up your cape as the 3D Crusader, you can start a new one.
The mid-range game has vanished partly because it’s not sexy, but it’s also a product of math. Any good player generally hits at least 37% from three now. That corresponds to 55.5% for any two-point shot to average the same number of points on a given shot (1.11 points). Even the quality big men have trouble reaching that figure, which reduces the usefulness of the mid-range jumper to solely keeping the defense off balance. My biggest frustration with this team is Dex’s affinity for 19 foot jump shots. He’s getting almost all the risk of a three-point shot with none of the reward.
Did I miss any video comments from Roy Williams since the FSU game? I am in Pennsylvania and cannot see your area TV telecasts. Thanks.
HTTE: Zeller can make that shot and he needs to take about two per game to establish more space at the baseline for himself. The problem: Barnes won’t go to the boards to take rebound spacing.
uh oh, Larry.
mrn10sdave brought out some math.
no worries. rant squelched.
^I still think your observation is valid because teams also don’t make it a priority to defend against the midrange jumper, and I believe that a wide open shot is bound to be a higher percentage shot then a well defended shot (except …apparently… for free throws… for certain players…)
^ I agree, and was going to make that same point regarding how open that shot often is.
Dave does have a good argument with the math…..the three has changed BBall in quite a fundamental way. I’d still like to see the 3-point line much further back, but, who knows, it may not make that much of a difference. It certainly wouldn’t to Hairston.
One of the times when the advanced stats/metrics match the eye test. Marshall pitches the ball ahead in transition to PJ, and PJ jacks up a 3 (and he ALWAYS jacks up the 3) and I just groan or yell at the TV. Barnes taking 3s, usually I’m content.
David Glenn has Duke as the top tier team in the ACC, and UNC,NC State, and Virginia as second tier teams, all vying for that second place finish. Even after the FSU disaster, I still have enough confidence that UNC could win this division.
Its one thing to say those teams are competing for second place. Its another to lump UNC with all the other mentioned teams, and calling them second tier.
I hope UNC can get some measure of separation from those other teams, so we can have the honor of standing beside Duke as the top of the ACC. Urgg, this bites.
UNC was 14-2 last year, and I remember in Jan. Seth Davis writing a report that UNC is garbage and Harrison Barnes is a bust….
It’s January
“It’s January”
Very true. Which is why Dook is ranked so highly despite being, in my opinion, a seriously flawed team. If the ACC wasn’t so lousy, they would be lucky to win 10 games.
Every year people just appply the same problems to UNC: Too deep, can only play fast, don’t play defense, soft. They also point to how innovative and less-stubborn to change Coach K is when in fact, his teams are ALWAYS THE SAME.
Thin - Never goes beyond 7 guys mostly, despite having equal quantity of talent as UNC, UK, etc.
3pt Reliant - Looks awesome when you make them. Sucks when you don’t. No interior scoring presense makes you easier to guard and puts pressure on shooters, who at end of season are tired from taking 700 shots, 300 of them from 3.
Lack Athleticism - Particularly on the perimeter. Athletic, smart lead guards/ torch them (Maynor, Reynolds, Lawson), while wings who can run/jump can maul their shooters.
ESPN and others blow so much sunshine up the public’s rear about the deity that is Coach K when he is less prone to change than Williams and you get them as the #3 team in the country despite close wins vs. GT, Clemson and UVA and losses to Temple and OSU (blowout).
Sidenote: This rant would be of more value had UNC not passed a kidney stone in the last game. But whatever.
Just another second tier ACC team that lost in the last 15 seconds by one point at Rupp to the #1 ranked team in the country.
Got it.