How do you describe yesterday’s game? It was a “Perfect Storm of Crap.”
UNC, under Roy, traditionally struggles this time of year. I don’t know why this is, other than that his teams generally have a season-long focus towards performance in March.
UNC traditionally struggles at FSU.
FSU is a talented team who had grossly under-performed this season.
Put it all together and you get… well you know what you get. The margin is surprising, the loss is not.
Four Factors
Looking at the stats, there is only one thing that comes to mind: statistical aberration. UNC produced season lows in EVERYTHING. And oddly enough, that actually makes me feel better about it. With the GT game last year (the last time UNC had an OE under 80.o), there were definite warning signs leading up to it, as UNC had produced OE’s under 100.0 in each of their first 2 ACC games. That was not the case this year, for example:
- UNC came in with a Roy-Era record 4-game streak of gathering at least 80.0% of defensive rebounds. Yesterday, it was a season’s low 58.3%.
- UNC came into the game turning the ball over in a remarkably low 16.8% of their possessions. Yesterday, it was a season’s worst, 29.3%.
- UNC came into the game assisting on more than 60.0% of its field goals. Yesterday, it was a measly 36.4%, again, a season’s low.
- And perhaps most importantly, after holding teams to 30.5% from three for the season, yesterday the Seminoles hit 44.4% of their attempts.
Nothing suggested this could happen, and nothing really suggests that it will continue.
Statistical Highlights
This is simple: there were none. Moving on.
Beyond the Box: Player Impact Ratings
| Player | ORtg | AST% | STL% | BLK% | OR% | DR% | TO% | MIN% | P.I.R. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeller | 119.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 13.8 | 20.2 | 23.5 | 27.2 | 82.5 | 47.4 |
| Henson | 68.1 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 16.6 | 65.0 | 23.4 |
| Barnes | 84.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 12.3 | 31.2 | 67.5 | 18.6 |
| Marshall | 52.7 | 24.7 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 50.0 | 82.5 | 18.3 |
| Bullock | 190.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.4 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 57.5 | 16.6 |
| Hairston | 40.9 | 36.3 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 37.5 | 9.2 |
| Strickland | 93.5 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 75.0 | 52.5 | 5.8 |
| McAdoo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 |
| Watts | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| White | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Simmons | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 |
| Crouch | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Cooper | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Dupont | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
If there was one bright spot in yesterdays debacle, it was Tyler Zeller’s performance against a very physical team. Zeller was the only starter to produce an ORtg even close to his ability level, and he also produced a season’s best (at least I got to type that word once) Block% of 13.8. Additionally, Zeller was very active on both the offensive (OR%: 20.2) and defensive (DR%: 23.5) glass leading to a career high, 14 total rebounds. The biggest downside to Zeller’s performance was that his possession % was a very low 17.7, which is 5.9 percentage points lower than his average, and was 5th on the team, behind Barnes, Hairston, Henson, and Marshall. I am not suggesting that had Zeller been used more the results would have been dramatically different, but the fact that the one player who appeared to be productive on the offensive end was not used more heavily certainly indicates a lack of execution (and possibly a level of panic) that had not been seen in games prior to this.
Season P.I.R.
The cumulative impact ratings for each player can be found below. A player’s average P.I.R., both for the season and the last five games only considers games in which the player officially logged at least 1 minute of game time. The C.V. is a measure of variation; the smaller the percentage, the more consistent the player’s performance has been. While it is not technically correct to use in this instance, because P.I.R. is an interval scale (it can go into the negative), it still has some value for the top-tier players, who will likely have a positive P.I.R. in every game.
| Player | Total | Average | C.V. | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henson | 691.7 | 38.4 | 24.1% | 35.6 |
| Zeller | 621.4 | 34.5 | 29.7% | 39.5 |
| Barnes | 486.3 | 27.0 | 30.8% | 26.0 |
| Marshall | 471.0 | 26.2 | 27.5% | 24.8 |
| Bullock | 286.7 | 15.9 | 37.8% | 15.1 |
| Strickland | 283.5 | 15.8 | 49.9% | 16.2 |
| McAdoo | 230.6 | 12.8 | 52.1% | 11.7 |
| Hairston | 202.5 | 11.3 | 57.6% | 10.7 |
| Watts | 62.9 | 3.7 | 148.8% | 5.3 |
| Hubert | 55.2 | 3.9 | 142.9% | 1.6 |
| White | 35.3 | 2.5 | 117.3% | 2.5 |
| Simmons | 22.9 | 1.6 | 160.9% | 0.4 |
| Crouch | 12.7 | 0.9 | 279.6% | 2.0 |
| Dupont | 7.0 | 0.5 | 147.3% | 0.6 |
| Cooper | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1612.6% | 0.0 |
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Tyler Zeller should receive praise for the positive things he did in the FSU game. He seemed to get quite energized as the game got underway, although he missed a couple of Kendal Marshall bullets fired close to his head. He also failed to jump 20 feet to retrieve a couple of alley oop passes and he was pushed out of passing lanes a few times.
The mystery is why did his team mates not respond the same way. All of the starters are very familiar with FSU. The FSU team had 9 returning players. So they should have clearly known what they were in for. Assistant coach Robinson was the HEAD coach for FSU as recently as 2002.
“The FSU team had 9 returning players. So they should have clearly known what they were in for.”
I think this works the other way, too. This is the same FSU team that was run out of DES last year and then lost a heart-breaker (for them) at home. Throw in the fact that they needed to win yesterday if they had any hopes of recovering to their own pre-season predictions, and it is easy to see why the ‘Noles were absolutely locked in.
And like I said on Twitter, bet on Maryland this week vs FSU when they go 2-21 from three.
Just take a moment and imagine how this year’s DES victims feel about it.
Getting humiliated can be really motivating. I never paid much attention to Deividas Dulkys before, but he looked like he could have wrestled a Grizzly Bear yesterday. He wasn’t condescending about it. He was just proud. Which is fine.
I was watching the Ohio State - Indiana game. It is safe to say that the Buckeyes are pissed off about their loss to Illinois and at Indiana. They are beating Indiana at halftime 35-14. Sullinger, Buford, and Thomas are not having good offensive game so far. If you had to guess that the only player on Indiana to have a decent game so far would be a Zeller, you would be right. If I was Roy, I would call up Thad and ask him what he told his players.
Tar Heel Fan
Maryland has the benefit of “rebuilding”. But they haven’t been playing very well at all. I guess there is a KenPom stat on anticipated field goal/3 point percentage for FSU this year.
There is going to be regression. The question is how much and when.
Dulkys will find a way to score negative points vs. the Terps.
write that down in the place where you write stuff down.
C.Michael -
Let me question two of your points. First, you note that the loss was “not surprising.” If that were so, I would think SOMEONE on this board would have predicted it, but to my knowledge not a single person did. I wonder if this is a bit of post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
Second, you say, “Nothing suggested this could happen, and nothing really suggests that it will continue.”
I believe your first clause is at least a bit self-contradictory to the view that the loss was “not surprising.” But the main thing is that it’s very hard to know whether this outcome will repeat itself without knowing the functional source of why it happened at all. To say that it was a statistical anomaly, while certainly true, is not an explanation.
I agree, BTW, that a loss this humiliating is unlikely to happen again, but the reason is that the overall record and talent of our team, demonstrated on the court over the last two and a half months, suggests that very few teams are going to beat us, much less embarrass us. The ones against whom we will be the most vulnerable will be the ones with muscle and attitude. I think what actually happened yesterday is that we got pushed around, didn’t effectively push back and that it degenerated from there. We were, to put it bluntly, scared, and we played scared.
The signature moment of the game was when Henson, after being called for an ineffective foul, slapped the ball away from the FSU player, thus picking up a second foul on the same play out of nothing but frustration and immaturity. That is how an 11 year-old would react. The way an adult would react is to bide his time, wait until the FSU player was paying attention elsewhere, then firmly plant an object that might be mistaken for an elbow in the opponent’s solar plexus.
Boys get mad. Men get even. There are some here who think optimism is the main thing we need, and we don’t need Julius Peppers, but what happened yesterday tells me that’s EXACTLY what we need.
“I would think SOMEONE on this board would have predicted it, but to my knowledge not a single person did. I wonder if this is a bit of post hoc, ergo propter hoc.”
Perhaps I was remiss in the using the term “surprising” instead of the term “shocking.” Yes, technically, the loss was surprising, as are all upsets, but had you told me that UNC was going lose beforehand, given everything that I outlined above, I absolutely would have believed it. There is a very definite reason why I made the comment in the comment section of the last BTB that any talk of 16-0 was going to need to wait until they made it through FSU and VT unscathed.
“Second, you say, ‘Nothing suggested this could happen, and nothing really suggests that it will continue.’”
I was referencing the margin of the game, which was shocking, not the loss itself.
“I think what actually happened yesterday is that we got pushed around, didn’t effectively push back and that it degenerated from there.”
I agree with this, but I disagree with any assertion that this team can’t beat a physical team (not attributing to you, just in general). I think physical teams on the road certainly have the potential to be troublesome, but at home and on neutral courts, I still like the Heels chances. Wisconsin and Michigan State are as physical as you will find in the country, and UNC was neither embarassed, nor beaten by either.
I thought UNC was going to lose at Miami. They seemed to have all the pieces to beat UNC, guards who could shoot well from outside, big men who were physical. Given the absolute offensive ineptitude of Florida State I was shocked by yesterday’s result. I wouldn’t have been surprised by a loss to Florida State, afterall, of all of the major programs UNC is the most likely to have brain fart games. This seemed like a candidate for implosion. Florida State is a great defensive team. Maybe this is like the Wake Forest game in 1994, 2005, or 2009. Hopefully, Roy can turn this into a wake up call.
One more thing, Barnes needs to realize that spin moves in traffic is a terrible idea……unless you are Jonathan Toews and you play for the Chicago Blackhawks.
I have a question that I’d like a stats wizard to answer for me. I was drinking during the game (thank god) so I don’t remember too well, but my brother turned to me at the end of the first half and said, “You know, if Henson had hit all his free-throws, we’d be tied right now.” Is that true?
I think at least some of this loss was a combination of ice cold 3-point shooting plus poor free-throw shooting plus bigs that can’t handle getting mobbed resulting in bigs that get mobbed.
I can remember thinking that we were taking an awful lot of low percentage shots. This is pretty well reflected in the stats about Zeller playing well but not getting the ball often. I don’t know who’s fault that is, but it definitely needs to change.
I just watched the UNC v Okalahoma Elite 8 game in 2009. That UNC team was unreal. It was surreal watching a team so fast and so good at nailing open jumpers. That Carolina team dismantled a team who if not for a brief couple game stretch would have been a No. 1 seed. I suggest other Carolina fans to watch this video to help them step away from the ledge. lol
It isn’t the win that should improve the mood of Tar Heel fans. It is the talk of this team’s weaknesses. Apparently, this team had problems with teams who have guards who are aggressive at taking the ball into paint.
I also went back and watched the debacle to Kansas. The Jayhawks bigs ate the UNC bigs alive on offense. Their defensive rotations in the post and on the wings were simply quicker. UNC started trying to go one on one against Kansas. That is how they started to get into trouble.
http://vault.ncaa.com/
“I have a question that I’d like a stats wizard to answer for me. I was drinking during the game (thank god) so I don’t remember too well, but my brother turned to me at the end of the first half and said, “You know, if Henson had hit all his free-throws, we’d be tied right now.” Is that true?”
Looking at play-by-play, UNC would have had a 1-point lead at the half if Henson had hit all his FT’s (and all other factors remained the same) based on:
-2 shots (shooting foul) at 17:57
-1 shot (on 2 & 1) at 9:57
-1 & 1 (in the bonus) at 9:47
-1 & 1 (in the bonus) at 6:03
-2 shots (double bonus) at 1:52
Since I had some time to kill, and was in a good mood after the Giants win, I’ll take it a step further by saying that if Henson had made all his possible FT’s he would have raised his percentage from 50% to 55.8%. Unfortunately he lowered it to 45.3%.
^at the 1:52 mark UNC was down by 8 (28-36) if Henson made all of his free throws UNC would have been down by 1.
If Henson went a reasonable for him 4 for 7 from the line and if Hairston shot 50% from the field including 3 for 7 from three pointers, Carolina would have lost by only 18. That was how bad the beatdown given by Florida State was.
If Dulkys only had his previous high against UNC (only 17 points) in addition to those factors, UNC loses by 3.
My biggest concerns are twofold:
1. Ball-screen coverage. This was horrible and mostly led to penetration, kick-outs and open three-pointers. I worried about this in 2009 and we shored it up, but my concern is that in ’09 we had 5 NBA guys on the floor most of the time. I love Kendall and Dex, but NBA players they’re not.
2. Too much one-on-one play on offense. There’s a difference between playing fast and stupid. We did the latter on Saturday. Waaayyyy too many possessions of one pass-shot. Reverse the ball. Get it inside. Especially vs. an aggressive defense-side, top, side as they say in the biz.
Dumb decision making, horrible defense and way below average games from Harrison and Kendall. They’ve both played so consistent the rest of their careers that I have to think Saturday was an aberration.
I think we’ll be fine, but one does have to question if this team is Final Four-worthy. I think being loose is good and you don’t want a team overhyped, playing on emotion all the time (which leads to an eventual downfall and very inconsistent play over the long haul-FSU, hello?), but the lack of response was, well, stunning. Worst basketball I’ve seen from an elite Carolina team in my 30 years of watching the Heels.
“^at the 1:52 mark UNC was down by 8 (28-26) if Henson made all of his free throws UNC would have been down by 1.”
You’re right, and I should have phrased my explanation of the calculation differently by saying if he hit all his “possible” FT’s UNC would be up by one. If he hits the front end of the two 1&1′s he had, he would have had 2 more opportunities (9 versus 7), and if he hit those he would have had 9 points from the line.
^You are right. If he nailed the nailed second half of a one and one he would have made nine free throws.
The first half of the Kansas-UNC game in 2008 completely reminded me of what happened in Tallahassee. I think we need to remember that this is a team starring sophomores. The 2009 and 2005 teams featured seniors and juniors experience matters a bunch.
faustus1500
They are a young team.
I think they should watch the Kansas game as well. Hansbrough was a Junior in 2008 and Lawson did not really blossom until 2009.
There are plenty of challenges ahead this year and it will be exciting.
Watching some of these old games makes you realize how focused UNC teams can be and how hungry for rebounds some of the players were. On one play for example, Danny Green streaked under the basket and took the ball away from BOTH Griffin brothers and dunked the ball.
I would like to see Barnes do that more. He has the physical ability to do it.
Be a Hansbrough or Green, not a Thompson or Davis.
As you say the loss was not a surprise, but the margin was. One would have expected them to keep it close, but 5 minutes into the second half they just stopped competing and were going through the motions like an automaton. Why? Who knows why. The fact remains there is no way to sugar-coat this debacle.
The question now is does this team recover from this humiliation? One thing is for sure, as of today, this team is not championship caliber. It now remains to be seen how many games they win and lose from this time onward.
I just went back and watched the 2009 NCAA tourney game of UNC vs Villanova. It really does show just how differently some teams defend the 3-pointer. Admittedly, UNC hit some shots from beyond what you’d expect in the NBA that game, but they contested 3-point shots with a speed and ferocity that I honestly didn’t remember (I actually kinda feel bad about that now.)
Thank you very much for that link Faustus. Having watched the game that I mentioned, I don’t think I can actually criticize Roy’s system anymore having seen the potential results.
I agree Thrawnyboy…Roy’s perimeter defense strategy can and does work (not to say it is the best strategy in my opinion). It just doesn’t provide much room for error - the error being lack of all-out effort. If players fly all over the court like every game is the last of their lives, we will have good, perhaps not great, perimeter defense (speed and athletic ability are also factors). Regardless, Roy’s system should not fail for lack of all-out effort. That is completely on the players.
“They are a young team.”
Yes, fairly young considering the bench players. But not as young as Kentucky, for example, so we’ll see how that works out for them both.
They do have a senior, 2 juniors, and 2 sophomores starting, and in today’s basketball that almost seems like a pretty experienced team. Certainly not as experienced, though, as the ’05 and ’09 teams, and with every bit of the expectations, maybe more, that the ’09 team had.
I hated that loss, and performance, against FSU. But I’ve seen enough college basketball to know that many teams who start really getting it together, and who get on a roll, in March have little resemblance to the way they were earlier in the year. You don’t have to go back any further than last year, with UConn, to have observed that.
In this respect, UNC is still young enough to be different teams, game to game, and if one wants to pick a version where they were at their worst to ultimately define them, and talk about all their limitations…..fine. I just think the second week of January is a little early to be doing that.
from Thad Williamson, IC:
The big thing of course is the inexcusable perimeter defensive effort. A lot of college basketball players are capable of knocking down two or three long distance shots in a row. That is normal. But when it happens, you have to adjust and take that threat away. Perhaps the most damning observation on Carolina’s defensive effort Saturday was that Deividas Dulkys hit four out of five three pointers in each half.
if the flawed (in my very very strong opinion) system is going to remain, then Roy needs to yank anyone out who is giving “inexcusable effort”.
put Jackson Simmons or David Dupont or Patrick Crouch in, and the starters and subs can see how those guys will wet themselves with excitement and run 1000mph to cover their man.
as mysterious as i find the system, i find it equally mysterious that theres no SERIOUS gametime accountability.
i didnt even pay attention that dook had played @ Clemson.
Clemson goes 4/16 from 3 and 10/20 from the FREE stripe, loses by 7.
dook has allowed 15+ 3-pt attempts in 7 of 17 games.
we’ve allowed 15+ 3-pt attempts in every single game, and 25+ in 11 of 18.
because we’re so concerned with the bigs of Monmouth, Elon, LBS, Tenn St…
can’t wait to “help” stop Clemson’s 3 bigs so they can’t get their combined 24-pt average.
Like I said previously the reason the guards collapse on other teams big men is to steal the ball and create transition opportunities. Unfortunately, this does not work with slower guards like Marshall because he isn’t quick enough to stop the outside shot after collapsing. What Roy needs to do is adjust for that. Only have Strickland collapse. Barnes has the length to disrupt three point shooting. He should stay put as well.
I think this team is younger than the 2009 team because it is young at the most important position, point guard. As a sophomore Lawson was accused of simply being a layup machine without an outside shot. Marshall is now passing machine without any sort of shot. He needs a consistent outside shot if UNC is to succeed especially if Strickland continues to start.
Clemson had surges against Duke yesterday, even taking the lead when the 3 point shot was not falling.
However, Duke players buckled down and focused on defense. When their shots began to fall, they pulled ahead. The officiating was definitely NOT in Duke’s favor either.
K called a time out when they went behind 0-4. Did it affect his players? Who knows. It DID stop the momentum of Clemson and their home crowd. Roy says he wants the team to learn to play through that sort of adversity.
Unfortunately if you fail to play through it, games can turn out like FSU when momentum becomes unstoppable.
That Beyond the Arc piece makes it sound pretty dim doesn’t it.
An interesting thought, to me at least, is what if the Heels do pretty good the rest of the way, maybe get in the NCAAT as a #3 seed, end up getting a pretty good draw, and making it to the Final Four after, say, avoiding Kentucky in their region by Kentucky slipping up in the Sweet 16, maybe even beating Ky.
I know those are a lot if what-ifs, but the question is would getting to the Final Four be considered a greater accomplishment now, based on the 33-pt.FSU loss, and the way they are now perceived, or would it be viewed as what was expected of them from the beginning of the season?
Addressing Roy’s perimeter defense strategy:
It was always flawed. This is not the first time, nor will it be last time that teams shooting the 3 have burnt us. Part of it is the inability of the coach to adjust to the fact that most teams rely heavily of the dribble drive and perimeter shooting. Even in the NBA, this is more the norm. Rarely do you see a big man dominating NBA basketball like Kareem, Hakeem, Wilt Chamberlain of the bygone days. Today 7 footers are needed to stretch the defense and score from arc and even beyond it, and all successful teams boast of such versatile players. That is how much the game of basketball has changed!! So unless we see less help defense in the paint (now why would a guard have to assist a 6’10 and a 7′ defender in the paint, while leaving his man wide open in the perimeter is beyond me; most successful defensive teams will never do that).
Addressing the problems on offense:
Yes, I hate to admit this but against quality opponents this team has problems on the offense as well. They were evident last year, but it takes time for teams and coaches to adjust to new personnel. Marshall was an unknown entity then, this time around every coach knows his ample strength and his very glaringly large weaknesses. Same goes with Barnes and Zeller and Henson. Our rotation also is making less sense. McAdoo has been a disappointment by any measure (now this may just be problem with the system he is playing where he has to be more of a physical PF or C when he prefers being a SF).
But the biggest problem has been the lack of spacing in this team. They are still playing inside-outside, but other than Barnes there are no reliable shooters in the starting line-up. Reggie and PJ are expected to come and immediately start scoring 3s, when it takes even the best shooting guards to find their rhythm. Not to mention these players are not given any screens and are supposed to be spot-up shooters.
Moreover, over the past year players have also acquired new skills, so Henson now wants to make more jump-shots, Barnes wants to drive more, but the spacing and the offense is not yet geared to accomodate all of that.
Now to address the time-out problem:
Well Roy did call a TO in the second half against FSU, but it not do anything. Why? Well one problem is that Roy is not a very good person to makes changes on the fly. He does not adjust well. He sticks to the same routine and will do so until hell freezes over. Thus, if you are in Roy’s starting line-up you will be there, etched in stone for life unless something catastrophic happens. If Roy has decided on a rotation plan, he will execute that come hell or high water.
Going back to the Duke-Clemson game, Dawkins started playing lights out in the frist half, so in the second half he started over Rivers. Dawkins played many minutes, while Rivers cooled his heels and when the time came he was put back in the game and started playing better. This would be unthinkable under Roy. He would never bench a starter at the beginning of the second half, and he will stick to his normal rotation pattern, even if it means the team loses momentum. Now this may be good to buttress players’ egos and what not, but it does not reflect the reality of pro-ball which all these players aspire to play some day.
I hate to say it but how to come out of Saturday’s debacle without some sort of roster shake up. I know egos will be hurt but not as much as if they were to crumble again. What do you guys think should change? I think you have to start Bullock over Strickland now. If Strick is injured, reduce his minutes so he can heal. Mind you I am not blaming Strickland for the loss. I am just saying we should see how Bullock fares as a starter to see what is his impact.
“Like I said previously the reason the guards collapse on other teams big men is to steal the ball and create transition opportunities. Unfortunately, this does not work with slower guards like Marshall because he isn’t quick enough to stop the outside shot after collapsing. What Roy needs to do is adjust for that. Only have Strickland collapse. Barnes has the length to disrupt three point shooting. He should stay put as well.”
3-2 zone defense accomplishes that without allowing the guard penetration to break the defense down. Barnes would be PERFECT at the point of it because of his length, and the threat of transition.
Big game,
I agree completely but is zone in Roy’s vocabulary?
I am not big on zone defense all the time because it’s not something played in the pros and with good reason.
Having said that, throwing in some zone for a few minutes, or switching on screens every now and then, helps to confuse the offense of the other team. Dean Smith did that with good effect in nearly every game.
@faustus,
No it isn’t. For better or for worse, UNC plays a very one-dimensional offense and defense.
Strickland is recovering from an injury. It is just difficult to know how much this is affecting him. He was delayed on defense against FSU and he did not play offensively as he had against Miami.
I understand the need to keep injuries under wraps, even to the extent of just now revealing that LMac cannot play this year. But making a fair appraisal of what is happening with the team personnel is the coaches’ job.
Williams did comment on how well Hairston was shooting the 3. Unfortunately, since he hurt his wrist Hairston has not shot the ball well in games. All players have slumps. But Hairston has other abilities. He has shot free throws very well and it seems reasonable to put him in situations where he can at least do that. Same for Bullock.
It would be interesting to see UNC play zone. That is certainly not in the scouting report.
I don’t see any point in analyzing a game like this beyond the sort of thing C.Michael said. The Heels (except for Zeller) came out flat in the first half and then choked in the second, while FSU played way over their heads the whole time. It was an extreme example, but this kind of thing happens in college hoops every week. It has nothing to do with tactics or time outs. When players are badly off, they can’t react with their normal quickness on defense, they can’t make open shots, they can’t anticipate the movements of their teammates, they can’t hold catchable passes or rebounds. FSU had that kind of game against Clemson last week.
If it wasn’t analyzed, ad nauseum, we would be deprived of the coaching expertise on the forum which exposes Roy’s, and the team’s, glaring deficiencies, and helps develop the proper strategy moving forward.
^CarMichael
UNC isn’t Florida State. The Heels were the favorites to win it all going into the season. Now, they were just badges by a mediocre team. How often does a Top 5 team gets humiliated by 30 points by an unranked opponent?
I would say what we are doing is a form of catharsis.
“I agree completely but is zone in Roy’s vocabulary?”
not currently, but never say never. to be fair, Roy is not in the minority of coaches specifically on that one. I saw K run it briefly in a game this year, but it was clear (to me) that it was only a lip-service attempt, and was quickly abandoned when OSU easily attacked it (because Duke totally broke down in the middle). IE-it was clear Duke hadn’t run it, and was resorting to it in “panic-mode”.
cb74-I totally agree that on the whole, I prefer a good man-to-man, but as a tool, it would really be beneficial imo. Only a fool would suggest that it might not have been a timely switch against Kansas in 08, after UNC closed the gap. It gives your team a breather (which they badly needed at that time), and it puts potential pressure on the other team to hit their outside shots. The dribble-drive was an evolutionary response to good man defense, and we can see it is pretty effective with the right personnel.
I tend to side with CarMichael on the FSU game however, and think that was mostly a case of momentum. faustus asked a question and I was giving my response. Going forward, I think a 3-2 would be helpful, not critical, that’s all.
Big Game -
3-2 with Barnes at the point is a masterstroke IF Barnes plays that key position with focus every single defensive possession. Unfortunately, that’s a big if.
agreed rath, but frankly it takes more effort and concentration to play man/switches. BOTH take concentration and effort, and I think most of us agree, THAT is the biggest problem for this team.
“It has nothing to do with tactics..”
seriously? nothing? zero? wow.
Roy, today:
1)Have you had teams to develop mental toughness as the season goes along?
“We have. You can go back to last year. We were struggling, but boy, down the stretch those guys got tougher and tougher and tougher. Hopefully this team will be able to do the same type of thing, but to answer your question, yes, we have. A lot of it is attention to detail. [That] can be part of toughness, too.”
unasked followup:
Isnt this team pretty much exactly last year’s team?
2)Is there anything you can do when a player is having the kind of game that Dulkys had on Saturday?
“You hope so, but you don’t know. We could have guarded him better, there’s no question. Some of his shots we had a hand in his face, yes, but there were a number – three or four – where he was wide open that we just didn’t make an extra movement to get him covered.
3 or 4? i must not be able to count.
3)But still, if a guy gets hot, you’ve got to understand it quickly. We didn’t do as good of a job as we would like to, but just congratulate him, too…
you did almost NO job on him.
*facepalm*
4)What’s the issue, dating back to last year, with this team’s struggles to defend the perimeter?
“We struggled with it last year of being able to challenge the outside shot and still feel like you could guard the penetration, but this year we haven’t. We’ve been doing pretty well until Saturday.”
there’s the philosophy, right there. challenge the outside shot(which you arent doing) and guarding the penetration (becauuuuse…we’re so undersized inside? have such poor shot blockers? rebound so poorly? 2-pt floaters over 7-footers so frequently go in?).
and as a few have said, why not throw in a few minutes of a different D?
we do have SMART enough players to change things up, dont we? even for a couple possessions?
also agree with cb74 that you never (i say never, but i’m guessing someone will remember 1 time somewhere) see the lineup change.
when did we get such fragile psyches? you cant challenge guys? like i said, put Dupont in. He’ll make Psycho T look like he was on Valium if you ask him to play a 3 minute stretch.
HTTE said, “there’s the philosophy, right there. challenge the outside shot (which you arent doing) and guarding the penetration (becauuuuse…we’re so undersized inside? have such poor shot blockers? rebound so poorly? 2-pt floaters over 7-footers so frequently go in?).”
What Roy said was, up to this point of this year, the Heels have been able to guard the 3 AND give help inside-which is exactly the case, with an opponents’ 3P% of only 31%. Yesterday, the Heels were so slow-footed and foggy-brained that they couldn’t do either one. Guards getting deep into the paint caused as much harm as the 3P shooting. That’s what I meant by saying it had nothing to do with tactics. Unless you count getting hung up in screens, not reacting to ball movement, etc., as defensive tactics.
no, theyve been able to guard SOME 3s, and luckily not get burned, and give up SOME help inside. too often, they are stuck between and doing neither.
and til i see opponent’s bigs being stripped at a Zellerian rate, its not a successful tactic.
Against a good schedule,
30.9% opponents’ 3P%
38.6% opponents’ FG%
0.89 opponents’ PPP
-is defensive success at a high level, so to say “not a successful tactic” is to have opinions disconnected from reality, except for the one game we just finished watching and about which you are (understandably) angry. I don’t see why some people want to blame the coach for what was a horrible, and almost surely temporary, failure by 7 regular players to do what they have been taught and what they have done in many games already this season, including the Miami game a few days earlier.
i could give a coach K’s butt about overall percentages and winning most of the games.
its winning the last game, and not having this trip us up.
like it has before.
when “its just one of those games” are a whole bunch of games where the same thing goes wrong, it aint one of those games.
whens the last time we heard, “their FORWARDS just killed us today”?
Heel To The End
It’s been a while since “their FORWARDS just killed us today”?
…
WE, the UNC Tar Heels, have a team that you should sag on and help down on and double down on.
WE have two 54% shooting 7-footers that if you let them get deep position, single coverage, will burn you for matching double doubles.
WE are the team that you pick your poison and hope tonight isnt the night that Barnes goes 4/5 from 3, or Bullock does or Hairston does, or that Marshall will find the drive open.
WE are that team.
the teams that we play are predominantly NOT that team.
and are REALLY not that team when they have TWO shot-blocking rebounding 7-footers to face.
8pts/game Xavier Gibson and 10pts/game Bernard James are not on one of those teams.
ALSO, do we really require 6’8″ Barnes to fight through a screen set by the opponent on 6’7″ Bullock? just as an example.
or 6’4″/6’3″ Marshall/Strickland combo? how would that matter?
^You have reached master status in the Basketball Harping universe. If you don’t take a break you’re going to wear yourself out before the season is two-thirds over.
^you should see me in the dook sucks universe.
I’m still very high on this team, which suffers most from youth and from an abundance of talent, a combination of which can result in toxic overconfidence. That won’t be a problem the rest of the season.
A loss like this can focus an entire team for an entire season. It can open ears that maybe thought they were listening but really weren’t.
I am not saying it’s a good thing - but failure can be a powerful teacher. It depends on the students.
And I still say we’re going to blow out Duke twice. Maybe 3 times.
I’ve tried to refrain from commenting on this loss, but I’m really not gonna be able to! As a life long fan I can be harsh towards this team. I’m not gonna sit and defend this team like some people and say oh its only 1 game! Bull@#$%!! NO TEAM that is supposedly a final four fav to make it EVER has lost like this! Look it up! Championship teams/players DNA wont allow this to happen. This team hasn’t even looked this good vs much more inferior teams this year, let alone 33 points better! I saw a stat from Sat that said the other 4 top 25 teams that lost on Sat lost by a total of 34 points! No team that is supposed to be this good loses to anybody by 30+ pts period! not one guy showed any heart, pride or nothin on or off the court during the game! The 1st road conf game and this was the effort? This team has won NOTHING yet, but seem at times to assume hey we will win b/c we are UNC! Its time Roy stop making excuses and force guys to earn the right to be on the court! Enough 4 at a time subs just to be doin it…its time for this team to man up or lay down! enough talk of we came back to do this and that! JUST DO IT!