Archive for August, 2006

ACC Season Preview

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 30, 2006
in ACC Football
. 0 Comments

Being more of a basketball guy I was not sold on conference expansion. I held fast to the traditions that the ACC has been and always will be a basketball conference. However the economics of the modern sport’s world changed when the SEC and Big 12 thought it would be a cool idea if they had a conference championship game. And it was a great idea, so much so, the networks were willing to shell out huge gobs of money to the conferences for the right to give their advertisers access to thousands of college football fans who were guranteed to watch the game. Thus gave birth to the megaconference era of NCAA athletics. It did not take long for others to jump on board and the ACC, under the direction of former UNC AD John Swofford, went out and found themselves three dandy football schools to create a 12 team megaconference so the ACC could have its own cash cow championship game. Now on the basketball side I think it weakens the conference and creates that annoying unbalanced schedule in both sports.

But, what are you going to do, it is what it is right? At least now we have two teams to give Florida State a run because it became clear after 13 years no one else was going to. Another plus is the ACC does have a whole new set of matchups within the conference which should make for compelling football and in all honesty I like the concept of having a championship game. Sure it is all hype but it makes for a fun Saturday to have these immensely important title games happening, something akin to the NCAA Tournament’s opening rounds. As for the road which leads to Jacksonville I think it is pretty freaking muddled. My reading on the situation is there is no clear cut, above the shoulders team that you can say will absolutely march through to win the ACC title.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Tar Heel Fan’s Picks

1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. Boston College
4. NC State
5. Maryland
6. Wake Forest

Analysis:

The number one question for the Atlantic division is: Has FSU return to form? Some pundits say yes and others like me are not so sure. I think FSU may be comprable talent-wise with Miami and only a small step ahead of Clemson and Virginia Tech. I also think FSU has fewer personnel issues than everyone else. The injury bug has stayed away, the police blotter is fairly clean, and they have a returning starter at QB along with excellent group of receivers and a strong defense. So in my opinion I think FSU is in a better position to begin the season but by no means would I be inclined to think of them as a Top 5 school yet. The other issue is we simply do not know how good Clemson is going to be this season. They are breaking in a new quarterback(like most of the ACC) and their defense has shown promise. If you want a dark horse pick to win the ACC, Clemson is the team. The problem is there are too many unknowns where the Tigers are concerned as well as a history of slow starts. The two crucial games which will shape the divisional race are the FSU opener with Miami which could saddle the Noles with an early loss and then 9/16 visit Clemson makes to Tallahassee. Clemson is due to play Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in Blackburg at the end of October which will most likely make or break the Atlantic division race seeing that FSU only needs to worry about a road trip to NC State on 10/05 the rest of the way.

As for the other teams in the division. Boston College is the model of consistency and probably will be again. The Eagles also have the privelage of playing the top two predicted finishers in both divisions so I imagine that will put them at 4-4 in the ACC. The game at NC State will be crucial in determining if BC can hold on to third place. NC State comes into the season having lost three 1st round draft picks on defense but a QB who seems to be much steadier than the interception prone Jay Davis was last year. Unlike BC, NC State only gets Clemson and Florida State from among the top four but travels to Maryland, Virginia, and UNC. The Pack strike me as being a better team than Maryland and should finish above them in the standings. If all falls right the NC State might be able to move past BC into third. Maryland has a horrible in conference slate with games against three of the top four as well as travelling to GT, UVa, and BC. The worst case scenario for the Terps is six losses from those games with a win against Wake Forest and a home game with NC State as the only difference between 2-6 and 1-7. Maryland’s best case has them winning 2 of 3 against the latter group as well as beating NCSU and Wake for an even 4-4 mark. Wake Forest will be a troublesome opponent but remain at the bottom of the division.

COASTAL DIVISION

Tar Heel Fan’s Picks

1. Miami
2. Virginia Tech
3. Georgia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Virginia
6. Duke

Analysis:

A commenter on this blog referred to the Coastal Division as the “Good Division.”  He could be right.  I would also charcterize this division as the “Question Mark” division as well.  Miami has had behavior problems, VT used to have behavior problems but they kicked that guy off the team which led to a QB problem, GT is a modicum of stability on offense but Chan Gailey is still the coach, UNC could be using two QBs behind a suspect offensive line, UVa lost four assistant coaches and some key players, and Duke lost it’s starting QB for failing to read the MLA handbook.  On the plus side Miami does have a QB returning though the Ryan Moore situation still needs to be resolved.  Virginia Tech will be relying on the defense since the offense is breaking in a new QB.  GT will be explosive on offense with Reggie Ball under center and Calvin Johnson who I think is perhaps the most prolific offensive threat in the conference at WR. UNC has some good running backs while Virginia relies on a senior QB who used to be a Notre Dame.  And Duke? (Crickets)

As for the schedule Miami and Virginia Tech meet on 11/4 which will be crucial for deciding the division title.  That is assuming both teams dispatch GT and VT does not stumble against Clemson the previous week which is entirely possible.  GT has the toughest gaunlet to run with a road game at Miami, home to Maryland, at Clemson, home to Miami, and then travelling to UNC and NC State before resting the starters most of the game against Duke.  Oh did I mention GT has Notre Dame to open the season and the Georgia to finish it? No rest for the weary in Atlanta.  Virginia is looking at a similar trap on their schedule.  They will play GT in late September but a month later start a stretch which includes UNC, NC State, at FSU, home with Miami, and at Virginia Tech.  UVa could be 6-1 overall before playing UNC and it is within the realm of possibility they could lose the last five games to end up 6-6.  UNC sits in the middle of all this chaos with their three toughest conference opponents in the front end of their schedule in VT, Miami, and Clemson making them in all likelihood 0-3 in the ACC by the time they hit Charlottesville.  UNC would have to do some serious winning the rest of the way to even see 4-4.  And then there is Duke (Crickets).  All of these wild runs of stiff competition will probably mean a lot of shuffling in the standings.  I expect Miami and VT to weather the storm however GT cannot be counted out. Calvin Johnson could be a huge difference maker, whether that diffrence is worth two spots in the standings remains to be seen.  UNC’s offensive line could have a similar effect but only the difference between fourth and fifth.  UVa needs to figure out pretty quick who is on the team and try to parlay that into a bowl bid.  And Duke? (Crickets)

Anyone up for Miami-FSU II in the ACC Champioship?  Two rivals playing for a spot in a BCS bowl and conference bragging rights.  Makes for a nice scenario, lots of national TV focus, and perhaps proof that the ACC expansion was not such a bad idea after all.

Oh and whoever loses the opener will this title because (1) There is no way Miami or FSU loses to the other one twice in one season and (2) Honestly how can I possibly offer a prediction for a game that is not set to occur for another three months.  At least by then all the crickets will be dead.

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Parade of UNC Previews

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 30, 2006
in UNC Football
. 0 Comments

Tired of searching all over for all of those team previews and capsules? Not to worry Tar Heel Fan has scowered the internet to bring you links to all of the relevant articles out there.

Tar Heel Blue has analysis all the positions and a game day guide for Rutgers.

The News and Observer has the list of probable offensive starters as well as a capsule on the team.

USA Today is calling this team the “most talented team of John Bunting’s tenure.”

850/620 has their UNC preview here.

CBS Sportsline checks in with a summary of relevant team information and some quick notes on the coming season here.

The Winston-Salem Journal has their take on the upcoming UNC season.

NBC-17 has a rather pessimistic preview from “The Sports Network”

Inside Carolina has 10 Key Facts About Rutgers.

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Joe Dailey Named UNC Starting QB

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 29, 2006
in ACC Blogs and UNC Football
. 0 Comments

Well I guess that answers question #2. ACC Now is reporting that junior Nebraska transfer Joe Dailey will be the starting quarterback when UNC takes the field on Saturday against Rutgers. John Bunting also said redshirt freshman Cam Sexton will see some time under center but was mum on the specifics only saying that Dailey has “earned the right to start” and Sexton has “earned the right to play.”

Since neither one played last season my first reaction is that he going with Dailey’s experience in hopes he will have a steadier hand out there in the opener when guys stomachs are in the throats anyway. He probably plans to bring Sexton if the game dictates such a move or if the opportunity presents itself to ease the redhsirt freshman into a more controlled circumstance.

Hat tip: Joe at 850/620

UPDATE: SI.com has more on the decision to start Dailey over Sexton.

UPDATE #2: The News and Observer’s article on the Dailey decision.

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Five Burning Questions

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 29, 2006
in UNC Football
. 1 Comment

If this were ESPN then it would be “Five Burning Questions brought to by Tinactin” but I digress.

The 2006 season serves as a critical juncture for UNC football and head coach John Bunting. There is a great deal of promise but also very little room for silly mistakes and bad losses. The manner in which these questions are answered could determine how the season will unfold.

And if the burning persists please consult your physician.

1. How will the offensive line perform?

This is probably THE question of the preseason for North Carolina. Based on everything we have seen in scrimmages and considering what the coaches are saying UNC has experience talent in all quarters except for the offensive line. And if my understanding of UNC’s new offense is correct that means the performance of the offensive line can make or break the upcoming season. There is a tendancy for sports fans to focus on the tangible point scoring positions and the big actions plays without realizing the degree to which the offensive line can change a game. One only needs to look at last season’s NC State-UNC game to realize that as the Tar Heel offensive lineman dominated the line of scrimmage it opened up huge spaces for the running backs and more or less ran the Wolfpack in the ground. This year that same kind of performance from the line can give UNC’s talented running backs the space they need to pick up yards. It is also important that they protect whichever two of the QBs John Bunting decides to have in the game. As for the line itself, two veterans will be holding down the left side with the center position and right side sporting less experience. Line coach Mark Weber referred to it as a attempting to assemble a puzzle. Whether or not that puzzle fits together could either free up or stall the offense in general.

2. Who will start at quarterback?

Probably the second most important question facing the Tar Heel coaching staff is who will start under center AND will we see both QBs on a regular basis? This is perhaps the best kept secret in the ACC or Bunting et. al are still debating the issue. Cam Sexton and Joe Dailey bring different styles to the field. Sexton is a passer while Dailey is more mobile. Since the West Coast offense Frank Cignetti has installed calls for downfield passing when the Heels are not running the ball I would think that gives an edge to Sexton. However the answer to question #1 may have bearing on how question #2 plays out since a pocket passer like Sexton might be vunerable if the offensive line cannot hold off opposing defensive fronts. In terms of experience Dailey played 11 games before transferring from Nebraska to Chapel Hill. Sexton missed last season with a broken foot which makes Dailey the more experienced QB among the two candidates. So far the coaching staff has been so non-commital on their pick I would not even dare to hazard a guess. In many respects having two good QBs is a good problem to have as long as they are utilized each according to his skills.

3. Which three games are the most important?

Rutgers, South Florida, and NC State. I think the opener against Rutgers is key for setting the right tone. If the Heels win and perform well it can only build confidence. Also add to the mix the second game is against Virginia Tech. Losing to Rutgers means starting the season 0-2 before taking on Furman. The Rutgers game along with the South Florida game are non-conference matchups against decent schools which will essentially destroy any bowl hopes UNC has if they lose both and seriously damages those hopes if they go 1-1. That leaves the NC State game as potentially the most important game of the season when November 18th rolls around. The rival factor already makes it huge but if you consider that if UNC beats Rutgers, Furman, South Florida, and Wake Forest but loses to Virginia Tech, Miami, Clemson, UVa, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame(a viable scenario if you ask me) then UNC is at 4-6 entering the game with the Wolfpack. UNC could very well flip either the UVa or Ga Tech game into a win coupled with a almost certain win at Duke to get them to 6-6 with a loss to NC State. However, if Bunting is serious about moving the program forward then a 7-5 regular season record is the place he wants to go. And given the pressure Chuck Amato is under to move his program I have to think there will be a lot at stake when these two meet. Did also mention NC State has lost two straight to UNC? Fuel on the fire.

4. Does UNC have a chance against Notre Dame?

Probably not but then again anything can happen right? In my football preview I questioned the sanity of scheduling this game. I have since had a change of heart. Playing Notre Dame at South Bend is a national game because Notre Dame has its own network in NBC. I cannot think of the last time UNC played a nationally televised game on a broadcast network. Heck, for all I know this may be the first time. So from a standpoint of exposure the game is a good idea. If UNC keeps it close or shows some life out there then it will be a great idea. And should they pull the upset the idea will instantly become pure genius. I think the middle scenario is the best hope. Going up there and making Notre Dame work for it can only have a positive impact both for the team’s confidence and on the recruiting trail. Just please, I am begging you, do not give us a repeat of the Louisville game last season.

5. Is John Bunting on the hot seat?

Not quite but I would say it is a little cozy. Now in the interest of full disclosure let me confess that I do not like John Bunting as UNC’s head coach. I question his coaching ability, I find he is too cautious on occasions when he needs to just go for it, and I just do not think he has what it takes to get UNC back towards the upper tier of the ACC. When he was hired it felt like UNC settled and since he was “in the family” he got the job when perhaps he was not qualified to be a college head coach. Now having said that let me tell you that I would love for John Bunting to prove me wrong and do all the things I do not think he can do. Honestly, if UNC is winning then who care who is doing the coaching. It should be noted that despite my pessimism UNC has steadily improved since Bunting took over. Bunting went 7-5 in his first season but the players were not his recruits and it takes more than one preseason to establish your system as a head coach. I personally think the first season can be effectively thrown out and the second season becomes Bunting true first season as head coach. UNC went 3-9 in 2002, 2-10 in 2003, 6-6 in 2004 and 5-6 in 2005 against a tough schedule. Any way you look at that UNC has gotten better especially with a win over Miami in 2004 and a 3-2 mark against NC State in the Bunting era. Off the field, the process of improving a football program tend to be very time consuming simply because it takes longer for the players to develop. Unlike in basketball where freshman can come in and make an immediate impact. This is not the case in football where many players need at least one year to transition to the college level sometimes two if they redshirt. Also, in UNC’s case football is not basketball and since basketball is king in Chapel Hill fans have more patience or perhaps they simply could care less. As for Bunting’s situation it is antsy. There are so many factors that go into building a program such as recruiting, building a good staff, and general experience as a head coach. Since Bunting jumped straight from the NFL to college he did not have much in the way of a recruiting apparatus in place, he had to assemble his staff which has been prone to changes, and he needed to learn how to coach on college level. A great deal of patience has been afforded to Bunting based on those issues, especially in ensuring he has ample time and support to recruit good players. All the pieces seem to be in place(for the most part) so in my opinion it is winning time. This is the season where the wins need to start coming far more often than the losses because quite frankly we are past the point where all of the logistical issues involved in building a program can be considered hindrances anymore . If he wants to be around to coach Mike Paulus, UNC needs to show signs of serious growth beginning this season. And if UNC ends up with only 3-5 wins then calls for his dismissal will probably find some legitimate legs. A losing season this year would be his fourth in the last five years with the 6-6 mark in 2004 as the only respite from mediocrity. The season is not a win and get fired season but it is pivotal in determining where UNC football is headed going into the end of the decade.

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Matt Doherty Blogs

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 28, 2006
in NCAA Basketball and UNC Basketball
. 0 Comments

Joe Ovies at 620 the Bull brings us some fabulous quotes from former UNC and current Florida Atlantic SMU head basketball coach Matt Doherty. Doherty did in an interview with SI.com where he said SMU was the “Duke of Dallas” and said he is modeling his rebuilding of SMU after the one Mike Krzyzewski did when he first arrived at Duke. Later on he responded to criticism of his comments through the blog he has been writing on since arriving in Dallas which contained a thinly veiled criticism of his former employer:

Duke fell on hard times and then Coach K came in my freshman year. They were decent. The next year they were worse and in came Dawkins, Bilas, Alarie… They weren’t very good that year because Coach K committed to the “youth movement”… Coach K weathered three difficult years, but AD Tom Butters stuck with him and it turned out to be a “decent decision”…An unpopular move with some fans, but a gutsy move that proved to be a wise decision. Could I have used another anology? Maybe. I could have used my own experience at UNC with the rebuilding process that included starting 3 freshmen and 2 sophomores my last year.

First of all, I tend to steer clear of the whole Doherty issue mainly out of ignorance since I was living in MA at the time and missed out on most of the firestorm in the local media. On the message board at Inside Carolina the waning days of Doherty’s tenure are colorfully referred to as the “Doh Wars.” In fact the issue was so divisive among the posters there that even today admins will lock threads which delve into the issue with any kind of specificity.

Secondly, why should I care what the head coach at SMU says? Yes, he is a former player/coach and I do wish him well in his new endeavor but if he wants to pontificate on the use of Duke basketball circa 1982 as a model for rebuilding then what do I care? Or if he feels the need, after three years, to take shots at the UNC administration then that is his perogative. A little unprofessional on his part but his choice all the same. Did he get a raw deal? Sure, there is some merit to that argument to the extent that the players(and parents) not the people actually in charge of the university made the decision about his future. One inescapable truth is that Doherty was inexperienced and I think that was reflected in the way he managed the team and his players. Of course we really have no idea what would have happened if Dick Baddour had stood behind Doherty. Then again when it was all said and done UNC won the 2005 title under Roy Williams and Doherty has landed on his feet elsewhere. Hopefully he can build a winner in Dallas and make the NCAA Tournament in the near future.

And then the selection committee will bracket SMU and UNC together and we will get to do this strange little dance all over again.

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Blogging and Traveling

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 27, 2006
in ACC Football and Local Media/Blogs
. 0 Comments

I will be traveling on business over the next few days so blogging might be inconsistent.  In the meantime the News and Observer is chocked full of good features in preparation for the upcoming season: 

  • Chip Alexander considers coaches at a crossroads. I may delve into this once I read the article along with my take on the “coaching hot seat.”
  • There are capsules for each ACC team.  UNC can be found here.
  • There is a fun little history test you can take.
  • Caulton Tudor offers us his Top 25 predictions. USC on top again?

And the N&O knows which side the bread is buttered by reminding us ACC basketball teams open practice in only 47 days.

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Links Aplenty

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 26, 2006
in ACC Football, General Sports Blogs, The NCAA and UNC Football
. 0 Comments

The News and Record reports little progress in the decision on a starting QB at UNC. [News and Record]

The Charlotte Observer does a quick update on UNC, NC State, and Wake Forest. [Charlotte Observer]

Yahoo! Sports has team capsules for the upcoming ACC football season. [Yahoo! Sports]

Regular 850 the Buzz blog commenter, Alpha Wolf, over at Red and White brings us the story of hypocrisy in the NCAA. [Red and White from State]

And sometime last week UNC announced their 2006-07 basketball schedule.[UNC Athletics]

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Former QB Matt Baker with Cowboys

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 26, 2006
in NFL and UNC Football
. 0 Comments

Matt Baker, UNC’s starting QB last season is currently on the roster with the Dallas Cowboys and got a lift this past week when the Cowboys released Drew Henson.  That  move increases the possibility that Baker will be on the roster when the final preseason cuts are made.  Baker, who went undrafted out of Chapel Hill first signed with the Houston Texans but was released in July.  At present he would be the #3 QB behind starter Drew Bledson and Tony Romo.

The N&O’s Caulton Tudor has more on Baker here.  According to Tudor, if Baker ever takes a snap in the NFL he would be only the second former Tar Heel QB to do so.

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The New Offensive Coordinator at UNC

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 26, 2006
in UNC Football
. 0 Comments

Along with breaking in two new quarterbacks this season, North Carolina also has a new offensive cooridnator in Frank Cignetti.  The N&O’s J.P. Giglio writes that the early indications are he may be exactly what is needed to infuse some new energy into the Tar Heel offense.

Cignetti, who came to UNC after a successful stint as offensive coordinator at Fresno State, represents a change in the Tar Heels’ coaching staff. He replaces the Yoda-like Gary Tranquill, who at the age of 66 imparted wisdom with an unabridged playbook, not by demonstration. The Heels hope Cignetti’s energy and the run-oriented version of the West Coast offense translate to a better offense than the Carolina one that struggled to score points and run the ball in a 5-6 season in 2005.

As UNC head coach John Bunting, who worked with Cignetti in 2000 with the New Orleans Saints, pointed out, “We were awful in the red zone last year” scoring just 19 touchdowns last season, compared to 56 by Fresno State. 

On paper it looks like a great situation.  The QB question has been all consuming in the preseason but with three good horses in the backfield it makes all the sense in the world to use a running attack.  Cignetti also appears to be breathing new life into the offense and team in general which, in my opinion, had become stagnant.  As for the offense it is broken down like this:

Normally, the typical Bill Walsh version of the West Coast offense equates to short, timing passes. Not so in Cignetti’s playbook, which he implemented in spring practice after being hired in January.

Cignetti’s offense borrows from his father, with whom he coached from 1990 to 1998 at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, and from longtime NFL coach Alex Gibbs. It will feature two running backs; zone blocking, a tactic perfected by Gibbs and the Denver Broncos; play-action passes; and more downfield “home run” type passes.

The nagging question will be how the different parts of the offense respond in this set.  The running back issue is easily answered with a lot of quality depth.  The offensive line is where matters get tricky.  According to Cignetti’s comments on August 17th they are “still trying to fine the five best linemen” which tells me no one has really stood out and all one needs to do is read the roster to see they are indeed very young.  In my humble opinion the OL is the lynch pin for the whole offense.  If the offense is meant to run and then pass long when needed that means the OL will be under enormous pressure to control the line of scrimmage to give the running backs room to move the ball and also to provide protection on those downfield passes which take longer to develop than short passes in a traditional West Coast offense would.  And since the offensive line is inexperienced, there will be a pressing need for them step up.  One area the coaches do not seem to be worried about is the receiving corp led by Jesse Holley.  John Bunting has called this group of receivers the best he has had since coming to UNC and if they catch half the balls they dropped last season he might be correct in that assessment.  That leaves the QB question and whether we will see Cam Sexton or Joe Dailey take more snaps from center.  At first glance you would think the employment of longer passes would favor Sexton but a suspect offensive line could put the QB on the run which may make Dailey the better choice.  Based on the divergent styles and the shakiness of the OL it looks like the QB system will be the best bet, at least until the offense shakes the kinks out in live play.

Overall it appears Cignetti is bringing a lot of positives to the team.  His work at Fresno St. is fairly impressive as the article points out his teams dropped 42 points on USC and in 2004 hit UVa for 37.  Given some of the anemic performances out of UNC last year offensively speaking it would seem that Cignetti’s offense will fill out a missing piece.

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Working Out the Kinks[UPDATED]

Published
by
Tar Heel Fan
on August 25, 2006
in Blogging
. 0 Comments

I am still in the process are setting the blog up and importing my posts which all appear to be there now and in some case multiple times. I hope to have this fully resolved by this evening so I can get back to posting.

***Update***

All my posts have been imported and the duplicates deleted.  I also took the liberty of deleting some posts which I thought were below standard or unnecessarily inflammatory.  In the interest of full disclosure I have left them all intact on the old blog just in case someone wants to see them.  I am also leaving a link to that blog on the side bar but near the bottom.  I am also in the process of categorizing all of the older material which is time consuming and tedious.

If I can find time tonight I will hopefully have something to substantive to post.

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